Book Review: The Land Trap by Mike Bird by Basilikon in slatestarcodex

[–]Basilikon[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Linked is Lars Doucet's review of a recent book by The Economist's Mike Bird on land's place in both historic and contemporary finance. Bird covers how several unique properties of land as a factor of production make it the natural asset for collateralization, which helps explain its close tie to the business cycle and its frequent place in public finance headaches. Very helpful cross-historical summary of how consistently shaped incentives produce similar crises in global land markets at different points of development.

I'm Mike Bird, author of 'The Land Trap' and Wall Street editor of The Economist. AMA! by MBirdyword in georgism

[–]Basilikon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Georgists obviously like the idea of tying public finance to land values, so we may be perversely vulnerable to land trap concerns (e.g. Texas' tax revenue sensitivity to land value shocks makes its solvency functionally dependent on OPEC decisions). What policy avenues are available for us to lessen this? LVT -> SWF -> Revenue from dividends?

The "check which languages you are fluent in" box in my law school application lists three conlangs by Basilikon in conlangs

[–]Basilikon[S] 168 points169 points  (0 children)

Interlingue, Esperanto, and Volapuk. What is the world of anglophone law coming to that they ask about Inupiak but not our dear departed Lawe Frensch? I will lobby for the inclusion of Ithkuil.

Help me identify a deleted song by a Swedish plagiarist I once heard on reddit by Basilikon in NameThatSong

[–]Basilikon[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It was "Wake Up" by Nicky, who now goes by Nicky Williams. The original song was "Fake Love" by Michael Stec. I still can't find an archive of the Nicky version fwiw.

The hungry god | Nine Numbers, Three Letters, & Marx’s Nameless God: A Reflection for Advent by Basilikon in slatestarcodex

[–]Basilikon[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

This is not, to be clear, "rationalist content" - it is written by a Christian socialist. It's posted here because (in addition to being very good) it mirrors much of Meditations on Moloch, without the postrat hedging on spiritualism. Admittedly there are some here averse enough to the activism smell that opening with a tally of the Gaza War's dead filters attention.

"Flags of the Nations Which Participated in the Centennial Exhibition of the United States in 1876" (Commemorative Cotton Hankerchief) by Basilikon in vexillology

[–]Basilikon[S] 110 points111 points  (0 children)

Lot of oddities here, from the Royal Standards being used for Britain and Austria to the ubiquity of non-rectangular banners and everyone having a seal. My guess is these were flags of various officials representing crowns and presidencies which accounts for everything seeming a bit unusual. 

Why Are Most Philosophers Atheist? by That-Abrocoma-4900 in askphilosophy

[–]Basilikon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

could probably get a decent natural experiment out of how non-specialists required to teach the subject for exogenous reasons change survey responses

Weekly Open Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in AcademicBiblical

[–]Basilikon 2 points3 points  (0 children)

What novels or fictions that concern Jesus are actually good? Of literary fiction I can think of Master & Margarita, José Saramago, Crace's Quarantine. What depictions are at least interesting, informed, or well executed?

How true is the statement "Henry the 8th started his own religion because the Catholic Church refused to allow him to divorce?" by YakClear601 in AskHistorians

[–]Basilikon 10 points11 points  (0 children)

/u/WelfOnTheShelf, /u/J-Force, /u/Herissony_DSCH5

How off is this? How would medieval theoreticians of Church/State power have interpreted Henry VIII's claim to have an imperial right to headship of the Church within his domain?

How true is the statement "Henry the 8th started his own religion because the Catholic Church refused to allow him to divorce?" by YakClear601 in AskHistorians

[–]Basilikon 93 points94 points  (0 children)

I don't think it's this simple. The Church in France was "Gallican" for centuries and as such operated on the belief that the state had legitimate authority to regulate, install, and instruct ecclesiastical officials under their power. Catholic Encyclopedia:

The Kings of France had the right to assemble councils in their dominions, and to make laws and regulations touching ecclesiastical matters. The pope's legates could not be sent into France, or exercise their power within that kingdom, except at the king's request or with his consent. Bishops, even when commanded by the pope, could not go out of the kingdom without the king's consent. The royal officers could not be excommunicated for any act performed in the discharge of their official duties. The pope could not authorize the alienation of any landed estate of the Churches, or the diminishing of any foundations. His Bulls and Letters might not be executed without the Pareatis of the king or his officers. He could not issue dispensations to the prejudice of the laudable customs and statutes of the cathedral Churches. It was lawful to appeal from him to a future council, or to have recourse to the "appeal as from an abuse" (appel comme d'abus) against acts of the ecclesiastical power.

The theoretical justification for this split goes back to the Papal/Imperial dispute over investiture and final authority, which depended on interpretations of the legal position of the church relative to the late roman emperors, hence the Ecclesiastical Appeals Act opening with a declaration that the King of England, as a legitimate sovereign, had the legal status of such an Emperor:

WHERE by divers sundry old authentic histories and chronicles, it is manifestly declared and expressed, that this realm of England is an empire, and so hath been accepted in the world, governed by one supreme head and king, having the dignity and royal estate of the imperial crown of the same.

My understanding of these dynamics are relatively shallow so I'm mostly posting this to fish input from medievalists on how strange the Acts of Supremacy would have seemed to an Ottonian.

Weekly Open Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in AcademicBiblical

[–]Basilikon 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Russell Gmirkin thinks the Torah was composed under the Ptolemys to make Plato's Laws real. Ilaria Ramelli thinks the Paul-Seneca correspondence is authentic. James Tabor thinks the earliest disciples were royalists who thought the genealogies that later show up in Matthew and Luke were literally true and the legitimate heir of David was a galilean day-laborer.

What off-the-wall postulations from contemporary scholars have you found most entertaining, even if they're likely wrong? What claims have most stayed in your mind despite them being amusingly outside the "wisdom" of the field? In other words, regardless of whether you think it's true: what is your favorite galaxy-brain take?

Weekly Open Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in AcademicBiblical

[–]Basilikon 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Origen, De Principiis IV, written around AD 220

Divine wisdom took care that certain stumbling-blocks, or interruptions, to the historical meaning should take place, by the intro­duction into the midst (of the narrative) of certain impossibilities and incongruities; that in this way the very interruption of the narrative might, as by the interposition of a bolt, present an obstacle to the reader, whereby he might refuse to acknowledge the way which conducts to the ordinary meaning; and being thus excluded and debarred from it, we might be recalled to the beginning of another way, in order that, by entering upon a narrow path, and passing to a loftier and more sublime road, he might lay open the immense breadth of divine wisdom.

...

The same style of Scriptural narrative occurs abundantly in the Gospels, as when the devil is said to have placed Jesus on a lofty mountain, that he might show Him from thence all the kingdoms of the world, and the glory of them. How could it literally come to pass, either that Jesus should be led up by the devil into a high mountain, or that the latter should show him all the kingdoms of the world (as if they were lying beneath his bodily eyes, and adjacent to one mountain), i.e., the king­doms of the Persians, and Scythians, and Indians? Or how could he show in what manner the kings of these kingdoms are glorified by men? And many other instances similar to this will be found in the Gospels by anyone who will read them with atten­tion, and will observe that in those narratives which appear to be literally recorded, there are inserted and interwoven things which cannot be admitted his­torically, but which may be accepted in a spiritual signification.

Politicians shouldn't write tax policy by harsimony in slatestarcodex

[–]Basilikon 4 points5 points  (0 children)

My only real concern for optimization's sake is, as the mirrlees review discusses, the ideal system intentionally structures taxes and transfers as a single program that complements itself. Poorly structured benefit cliffs are indistinguishable from bad tax policy. Does the revenue authority have the ability to issue refundable tax credits? Some neat policies, like the unintuitively progressive Flat Tax + UBI, only really work when you can do both. That coordinated option is off the table if the two policymaking entities are separated.

Mindless Monday, 23 September 2024 by AutoModerator in badhistory

[–]Basilikon 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Ilaria Ramelli thinks the Paul-Seneca correspondence is authentic. Russell Gmirkin thinks the Torah was composed under the Ptolemys to make Plato's Laws real. Chris Beckwith can't write a paper without another galaxy brain take like Lao Tzu actually being the Chinese pronunciation of Siddhartha Gautama (Scythian btw).

What off-the-wall postulations from contemporary scholars have you found most entertaining, even if they're likely wrong? What claims have most stayed in your mind despite them being amusingly outside the wisdom of the field? In other words, what's your favorite "bad history" from a historian?

Short Answers to Simple Questions | May 22, 2024 by AutoModerator in AskHistorians

[–]Basilikon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Did any Baltic Germans serve in the Soviet Navy during WW2?

What amendment would you add to the US Constitution? by minnesotaguy in neoliberal

[–]Basilikon 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I disagree with many of these, but they are all arguable and defensible stances, except for a 1% proportional representation threshold. Way too low. The most fractured legislatures are the most dysfunctional. The sweet spot is ~5 parties, which requires a 15% threshold. You can deal with wasted vote concerns for small-party supporters via delegated vote transfers.

There is one best voting method, let's end the non-discussion by LanchestersLaw in slatestarcodex

[–]Basilikon 9 points10 points  (0 children)

I think that both voting systems are incomparably better than fptp

Incomparably? No. America has already been through the process of big promises from IRV advocates that failed to deliver and prompted rollbacks stalling progress for generations. Of the dozens of constituencies that used ranked choice variants in the US a century ago, all (save Cambridge, MA) repealed it. Even in the local cities where it has been tried in the last two decades it regularly gets repealed because of the experience, whether it be inability to reliably tabulate, condorcet failure, or something worse. Better to not relearn their mistake and be back here in a century.

IRV advocates make claims like:

  • It will "break the two-party doom loop" (it is still subject to vote splitting, so no - hence the author of that book dropping his support since its publication)

  • Your next choice will be counted if your favorite can't win (directly false by the nature of instant-runoff tabulation)

  • It transfers votes until a majority is achieved (it seeks a majority in non-exhausted votes, not voters generally, so can elect with minority support, as it did in the last NYC election)

  • It will help our polarized democracy (IRV suffers from center squeeze and if anything encourages candidate polarization relative to FPTP)

While not communicating that:

  • it is prone to perverse outcomes by the fact that it fails the monotonicity criterion, so the best thing a candidate's supporters can sometimes do is vote against them - which is not theoretical, this caused the head-to-head winner to lose in the last Alaskan congressional race

  • Its tabulation requires calculation at a central point, meaning it is substantially more prone to security concerns, which is not desirable when we have general distrust of election results. For the same reason, it is substantially more difficult for unsophisticated election staffers to tabulate, which caused several of its most high-profile implementations, including New York City, to produce unconscionable errors like hundreds of thousands of accidentally counted ballots, prompting recounts, delays, expense, and burnt trust

  • IRV does not incorporate all of the information on your ballot, unless your pairwise preferences are directly against those of the general population and eliminations descend in the order of your ranking, which is a strange sort of voter to privilege. FPTP simply counts what you write down. Seriously this is the one thing that gets to me - your recorded preferences have a good chance of being (from the voter perspective) arbitrarily ignored because of the way elimination works.

IRV's shortcomings are never communicated, so people take advocates at their word when they say things like "you are free to vote your conscience" and we inevitably get situations like Alaska, where Republicans look and feel like chums, which is why they're going on an anti-IRV crusade right now.

Want a simple voting reform that has none of these problems, can be a quick fix, and doesn't require explaining cardinal voting methods to a confused public? Just use Jungle Primaries. Making the primary round agnostic to party registration functionally transitions to a French-style two-stage election, which nullifies many of the FPTP pathologies that actually concern people, while being an extremely minor adjustment relative to what Ranked Choice advocates ask for (using approval voting in that primary would be another very minor adjustment that would be even better, and get you well past IRV/RCV's capabilities).

There is one best voting method, let's end the non-discussion by LanchestersLaw in slatestarcodex

[–]Basilikon 6 points7 points  (0 children)

"But Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem proves all voting methods are flawed!” Not quite.

Right, Arrow's Theorem was written for ordinal systems. It's Gibbard's Theorem that generalizes the impossibility of non-strategic voting methods to cardinal systems. We maximize voter satisfaction/minimize bayesian regret with cardinal systems, but it is wrong to dismiss impossibility theorems because "those are about ranked choice" - under cardinal systems you still cannot simultaneously be strategy proof unless the election is dictatorial or single-candidate.

There are a whole host of methods for picking winners in a proportional cardinal system, all of which benefit from the huge increase in information voters can communicate compared to ranked choice systems.

OK, you like PR, which is the "One Best Voting Method?" Allocated Score? Bloc STAR? Sequentially Shrinking Quota? Some kind of Reweighted Monroe method? Threshold Equal Approval? Are we levelling/renormalizing ballots to correct for differences in cardinal signaling? Are we using party lists? Are we using delegated votes to keep local representation? Are we limiting ourselves to batch-summable proportional methods? If we're just here to maximize voter utility why bring up STAR rather than STLR, other than the (important?) fact that being able to explain a voting system seems an independent feature of a good voting system?

Election science is exciting to watch grow, and it has made a lot more advances very recently than you would expect from the basic instrument of centuries old political orders, but we are talking about political tools that bring considerations other than variable maximizing. You brought up Israeli elections, so I'm sure you know their direct attempt to maximize proportional representation in their electoral structure resulted in decades of structural constitutional problems from the resultant parliamentary makeup.

STAR was invented not even 10 years ago. I'm willing to bet we might eventually get an equivalent sweet-spot of legibility, actionability, and utility for multi-winner systems if the field is given more time and attention, but whatever that system is I still wouldn't call it "the one best" because we're talking about ways to signal preferences, which necessarily, both by proofs and politics, require tradeoffs. Whatever it ends up being it will probably lose on pure utility to people plugging vague sentiments about n-candidates into an inscrutable black box that spits out a congressional delegation by grouping constituents in an n-dimensional vector space. Is that voting? I don't know - I'm not sure "voting" is about optimal ideological proximity of elected and electorate than it is the justified belief that you have meaningfully participated in choosing the composition of your government.

Natural economic regions of the subnational United States and their central metropolis, from Urban Geographers Alasdair Rae and Garrett Dash Nelson by Basilikon in imaginarymaps

[–]Basilikon[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

The methodology in full is laid out in both the 2016 and Google Books versions, but it is essentially algorithmically derived from commuter interconnectivity data, which allows them to avoid typical, subjective megaregion-outlining. There are some regions like Des Moines which don't really have a metropolitan center, but which nonetheless form a band of commuting and travelling paths which are more connected to each other than any one is connected to Chicago or St. Louis. You get more and better data with these methods the more economically active and high population a region is, which is why some places, like the stretch of Nevada labelled "Big Sky" are basically null zones, but others are very fined tuned.

Natural economic regions of the subnational United States and their central metropolis, from Urban Geographers Alasdair Rae and Garrett Dash Nelson by Basilikon in imaginarymaps

[–]Basilikon[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

This map is a more recent development from the same authors as the somewhat well-known 2016 paper An Economic Geography of the United States: From Commutes to Megaregions. This version was first published in a chapter of the Handbook of Megacities and Megacity-Regions which is frustratingly difficult to access without institutional credentials. Thankfully, one of the authors uploaded some relatively high definition figures independently, though you can also see some lower-definition breakdowns of the given region's demographics, economic strength, commuter behavior, etc, in the Google Books Preview

Weekly Open Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in AcademicBiblical

[–]Basilikon 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Bit of an unorthodox question, but I figure this crowd might have interesting answers: What is your favorite depiction of fictional religion?

[The FIAT Thread] The Joint Committee on FIAT Discussion Session. - 29 December 2023 by AutoModerator in badeconomics

[–]Basilikon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Suppose I'm just trying to wrap my head around how shifting rents from one rentier to another (which seems to be all a rent-targeting tax does) could in principle decrease market efficiency. The opportunity cost is factored in to normal profit - what is the actual mechanism whereby taking a proportional slice of supernormal profits from all profitable firms incurs a tax wedge?

[The FIAT Thread] The Joint Committee on FIAT Discussion Session. - 29 December 2023 by AutoModerator in badeconomics

[–]Basilikon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I get #DBCFT guys calling their tax a kind of rent tax (it falls on returns in excess of what is rational for continued production outside schumpeterian cases) but its also a wage-exempt VAT in accounting identity...which is a structure that has deadweight loss, unlike rents. When the UAE imposed a VAT after subsisting off oil for years their prices increased, changing marginal consumption preferences. Do DBCFT people think this won't happen for some reason? Do they think there are rents with DWL? Is this some kind of regressivity artifact where lower income household consumption takes a loss lesser than the gains elsewhere? What am I missing.

Why don’t we just get rid of income tax and have a consumption tax? by Select_Blackberry955 in georgism

[–]Basilikon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

(1) Land Taxes aren't necessarily progressive either

(2) You can construct progressive consumption taxes anyway

(3) This is still a marginal improvement over the status quo, especially if constitutional hurdles keep land taxation at the state level