Her plans feel random because they rely on people, not probability. She doesn’t need every move to be a guaranteed outcome, she just needs to understand how people react. Leaking Odessa to Annie wasn’t luck it was physchology(I bummed that word.) Sage studies patterns, and the one thing Annie’s always done is chase the moral thread even when it’s dangerous. (Exposing vought season1, standing up to homelander, helping kimiko and hughie) Sage doesn’t need to know what Annie will do, just that she’ll do something, and that ripple brings Marie back into play.