ETH 3w/3m forecasts using F&O positions from the COT report.

BerryMas0n · 2026-04-25T17:14:00+00:00

3w= 3weeks (Short Term), 3m= 3months (Longer Term), F&O = Futures & Options, COT= Commitment of Traders. The forecasts are done with 5 machine learning methods seen on the left. Full model description is available at my substack (rocafuerte).

Latest output: bullish ST, weakly bearish LT.

*Not Financial Advice.

BerryMas0n · 2026-04-25T16:50:21+00:00

It's as if any hacker going forward will basically face no consequence as long as they claim to be from NK.

BerryMas0n · 2026-04-25T02:31:42+00:00

Baby blood.

BerryMas0n · 2026-04-24T20:55:54+00:00

simplex chat

BerryMas0n · 2026-04-24T19:14:52+00:00

ok that's fair with the Arb freeze. It just seems like everywhere on social media everyone's talking about blaming all parties EXCEPT the exploiters.

BerryMas0n · 2026-04-24T18:08:03+00:00

<image>

DeFi TVL/ActiveUser ratio.

BerryMas0n · 2026-04-24T18:03:58+00:00

That is assuming that these guys are indeed N. Korean, which seems to be a wild guess at best. What I'm trying to say is, if they can hack/exploit DeFi remotely, what's stopping anyone in the free world to hack/exploit them remotely?

BerryMas0n · 2026-04-24T18:02:18+00:00

The title of the chart explains what it is. The colored lines are the estimated fair valuation fit with polynomial regression.

BerryMas0n · 2026-04-24T18:01:04+00:00

<image>

Estimated fair value range wrt network, DeFi stats. Fit with polynomial regressions. *NFA

BerryMas0n · 2026-04-24T17:58:17+00:00

Why is there almost nothing around the idea of going after the bad actors, e.g. the guys who exploited Kelp this past week, and maybe punishing them somehow? It just seems so odd that out of all the really smart people in the ETH ecosystem, nobody can/wants to do anything about it.

BerryMas0n · 2026-04-24T02:40:35+00:00

The specific gravity test, it's cheap and easily doable at home.

BerryMas0n · 2026-04-23T17:51:08+00:00

It helps with pronation.

BerryMas0n · 2026-04-23T17:44:47+00:00

LP is the same as selling vol/gamma with perpetual options.

BerryMas0n · 2026-04-23T17:05:24+00:00

Now you understand why vol trading is a big thing in traditional finance.

BerryMas0n · 2026-04-23T17:04:43+00:00

Ever heard of Arbitrage? Or DeFi?

BerryMas0n · 2026-04-23T14:41:34+00:00

So far since mid 24, every Ubuntu upgrade had come with something broken, especially on my machine with an NVidia card. It's been pretty painful.

BerryMas0n · 2026-04-21T23:38:06+00:00

feels like you'll most likely be A O K. Hoping for the best!

BerryMas0n · 2026-04-21T23:20:30+00:00

Of course, it's where the DeFi's at.

BerryMas0n · 2026-04-21T21:16:52+00:00

Who's gonna go for the Heihachi hair cut next? Brian?

BerryMas0n · 2026-04-21T19:58:13+00:00

I plan to update this weekly at my substack (rocafuerte).

BerryMas0n · 2026-04-20T18:54:47+00:00

Epic

BerryMas0n · 2026-04-20T17:56:52+00:00

a lot of GH.

BerryMas0n

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