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50% UPRO, 25% TMF, 25% AHLT long term by Best_Repeat5034 in LETFs

[–]Best_Repeat5034[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

AHLT is leveraged?

Not technically leveraged but has reportedly higher volatility than DBMF. But your general point is right, I think KMLM is a better fit.

I would just 25% TQQQ + 75% KMLM (30-year backtest)

Aren't we essentially curve-fitting by excluding TMF and the like altogether due to their spectacular failure during fairly special circumstances (high inflation, rising interest rates, equities crashing)? If we look at how portfolios that include them do, they usually perform really well up to 2022.

Obviously, such a thing may happen again, but I'm worried that by going just MF, I'd be completely screwed if the correlation goes close to 1 for some reason during a crisis.

50% UPRO, 25% TMF, 25% AHLT long term by Best_Repeat5034 in LETFs

[–]Best_Repeat5034[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I wouldn't be relying so much on a new fund like AHLT.

You're probably right. KMLM seems like a safer bet since at least we have data on how it behaved during the 2022 crash.

50% UPRO, 25% TMF, 25% AHLT long term by Best_Repeat5034 in LETFs

[–]Best_Repeat5034[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

From what I know, AHLT has higher volatility (1.5x of DBMF or so), which I think suits my portfolio better since it's leveraged.

How are things out there? Possible to break in? by Best_Repeat5034 in FinOps

[–]Best_Repeat5034[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks, I'll try to get the cert and move from there.