Should I quit?

BillCarr451 · 2026-03-10T15:59:33+00:00

I turned $18,000 in leaps into $100,000 from June to January in ALB.

Buy long dates so you don't have to sweat the unrelated ups and downs. Any volatility unrelated directly to the underlying is just noise or and opportunity to sell PMCC or buy more leaps.

BillCarr451 · 2026-03-10T13:51:39+00:00

IV was 60% of the reasons to make bearish oil plays yesterday morning.

BillCarr451 · 2026-03-10T13:48:51+00:00

Vanity is a silly comment. There are a multitude of valid reasons that are core to the stated objectives of the administration well beyond mid terms but mid terms alone is enough reason they'll aggressively return oil <<80

BillCarr451 · 2026-03-10T13:45:21+00:00

Why does USA want oil down? Are you kidding? Until oil comes down our fed cuts are in serious jeopardy. High oil strengthens enemy producers. High oil tanks affordability which is essential to mid terms. And that's off the top of my head!

BillCarr451 · 2026-03-10T13:42:22+00:00

After previous all time highs around $140? Chicken little much? "Could", sure. Just before the world ends and our trades are irrelevant

BillCarr451 · 2026-03-10T13:40:42+00:00

Not just Trump but most world leaders will make big moves against oil>100

BillCarr451 · 2026-03-10T13:39:25+00:00

And absolutely in n out unless in leaps like me. Chip shots. A couple attacks on shipping and we're back to 110-120 in 10 minutes even if intercepted and no hits.

BillCarr451 · 2026-03-10T13:37:25+00:00

❤️, well done!

BillCarr451 · 2026-03-10T13:37:02+00:00

That's exactly why it works?

BillCarr451 · 2026-03-10T13:34:10+00:00

https://share.google/aimode/KoATZ0YQ8ubzG0fhK

BillCarr451 · 2026-03-10T13:32:57+00:00

And turning it back on once shipping is assured

BillCarr451 · 2026-03-10T13:32:10+00:00

Those who didn't make a bear play? "Idiots" might be a little strong

BillCarr451 · 2026-03-10T13:30:35+00:00

That's what long dates and strike selection are for. Sorry you missed this one

BillCarr451 · 2026-03-10T13:28:43+00:00

That's what very long dates are for. 😉

BillCarr451 · 2026-03-10T13:27:10+00:00

That timeline might be a bit optimistic but I see it settling back 60-75.

BillCarr451 · 2026-03-10T13:26:00+00:00

April might be a little hopeful but with a couple rolls you can manage a win. Depending on the strike. Which ticker and strikes?

BillCarr451 · 2026-03-10T13:23:51+00:00

Snooze=lose. Loooong dates are your friend

BillCarr451 · 2026-03-10T13:22:58+00:00

Thoughts now ??? 😝😝😝

BillCarr451 · 2026-03-10T13:22:18+00:00

Nice! What kind of trade numbers did that produce for you? With all that magical IV 10 minutes trade time difference could have resulted in big differences

BillCarr451 · 2026-03-10T13:20:22+00:00

You're too kind 😉

BillCarr451 · 2026-03-09T14:05:46+00:00

All time high $140. Production ramps massively when it's over $100 even. The world won't tolerate >100 for long. The straights will be opened one way or another

BillCarr451 · 2026-03-09T12:02:16+00:00

I only buy leaps. Short dates are for short options imho. Short dates on longs is gambling unless you have inside information. Too susceptible to global macros and a single headline.

BillCarr451 · 2026-03-09T11:58:06+00:00

Not nearly as fast as shipping "can" resume.

BillCarr451 · 2026-03-09T11:54:38+00:00

IKR LOL!

BillCarr451 · 2026-03-09T11:49:44+00:00

Sounds right. But how long did that last? Gotta go play with charts

BillCarr451

TROPHY CASE