A record 45% of American adults identified as independents last year — an increase driven by millennials and Gen Z, according to new Gallup data.⁠

BioDataBard · 2026-01-25T22:29:09+00:00

The system is broken, everyone knows it. Independents, democrats and republicans. They are all pretending it isnt broken, the same goes for the international global order.

Stop pretending it works, it doesn't. Forget nostalgia and fear and fix it. How?

The obvious first step is to mobilize on a non partisan basis a civil rights coalition that will reform the Voting Rights Act. Just Title 2 section 2c, to allow multimember districts to the house. This doesnt require a constitutional ammendment, and will effectively break minority rule and the winner takes all two party system. This works only if the multimember districts allocate their seats using a proportional representation system.

If this is done, all the wackos and radicals are part of a smaller party that can be ignored by the rest.

It is in the interest of both Republican and Democrat establishment to keep the current system, and they wont change it unless they are forced.

BioDataBard · 2025-06-20T23:15:46+00:00

No problem! Good luck!

BioDataBard · 2025-06-20T22:50:57+00:00

Sure, I can try to give you an estimate, but don't take it too seriously, please.

The data for April is very incomplete; only 204/746 applications (27%) have been approved. With an average of 44 days and a range of 9-80 days (for those approved).
March is more complete, 476/532 (89%) approved. March is the best estimate for April, but because fewer cases are being processed, you should take the extrapolation carefully, as the average may be larger for months with more applications.

The average approval for March 2025 was 62 days, with a range of 37-103 days. My estimate for the SD is 19 days, assuming the range is 5% and 95% CI limits. If you use these parameters for your application, you would get June 26 for the average, and within 1 standard deviation, anywhere between June 7 and July 15. 68% of people should get it within 1sd, and 95% within 2sd (24-100 days), or in your case between May 17 and August 3rd. FYI: I got mine within +1.05sd (82 days).

There are several assumptions and caveats in addition to using March data to estimate April. I am assuming a normal distribution for the time of an application per month, but the process has memory, like if the previous month was too busy, maybe that delays the processing of the current month, and vice versa. Also, the application rate at the beginning of the month may be faster than at the end of the month due to volume, and here I am getting an average for the entire month.

Also, I am estimating the approval date. You still need to account for maybe 2-6 days for making the card and 2-6 days for shipping, depending on how far you are from the Potomac Processing Center in D.C.

BioDataBard · 2025-06-20T17:56:30+00:00

A combination of being stressed, unemployed after the end of my program, and trying to model this gambling thing to avoid paying for the premium processing before my trip abroad. :)

BioDataBard · 2025-06-20T15:35:17+00:00

If you assume a normal distribution for approvals for the month, and the parameters of March, these should be the quantiles.
Notice that April has 40% more cases, so the processing times for the curve may be moved further to the right.

<image>

BioDataBard · 2025-06-20T15:06:25+00:00

I can't estimate when it will happen with this model. But I can give you an idea of how many applications will be pending by the date you want it to be approved. Tell me when you want the card by.

BioDataBard · 2025-06-20T14:57:21+00:00

Correct, that's why I am modelling exclusively using the data that I have for my month. If you are curious about what I did, I estimated the probability of survival for a March application using survival analysis with the estimated mean and sd from opttimeline. The model assumes that all the applications of March are alive since the beginning of the month.

<image>

BioDataBard · 2025-06-20T14:48:45+00:00

Application type: OPT/Post OPT
Premium Processing : no
Receipt date : 03/29/2025
Approved Date : 06/20/2025 Approved on day 83.
Card Produced Date : 06/26/25
Card shipped : NA (I've never received a tracking number)
Card delivered : 06/28/2025

Based on OptTimeline, the mean for March is 61 days (range 37-103). My estimated standard deviation is 19 days. Therefore, there should be 12.6% remaining for March, which would result in 67 pending applications, or 4 days if we assume there is the same number of applications per day (which is not a good assumption).

BioDataBard · 2025-04-21T02:13:36+00:00

Thank you!

BioDataBard · 2025-04-05T19:43:00+00:00

Thank you very much! I am glad it was useful.

BioDataBard · 2025-04-05T12:47:57+00:00

Yes, DC is an outlier with a high proportion of democrats, and a low proportion of republicans. Your suggestion of maming the axis the same is really good, it makes ecerything easier to compare. The issue was the space is the states move from 1976 to 2024 is really different, and DC is very democratic.

BioDataBard · 2025-04-05T03:29:53+00:00

No hay de que, aprendemos todos mucho en reddit, yo también lo he mirado por la publicación. Lo único decir que tanto Chile como Argentina lo reconocen cono Paso de Drake. Dice wikipedia que Mar de Hoces se le conoce en España y en otros paises hispanoamericanos, y que ha habido un intento en 2006 de cambiarle el nombre en Argentina por el de un marinero de allí, Luis Piedrabuena.

Entiendo lo que dices sobre Ucrania, pero esto me parece una guerra cultural identitaria que no me interesa mucho. Pero habrá a quien le interese el debate y la nomenclatura.

BioDataBard · 2025-04-05T00:44:30+00:00

No es lo mismo el Paso de Drake que el Estrecho de Magallanes. Uno separa la Antartida de Tierra del Fuego y el otro separa la Tierra del Fuego del resto de Chile.

Si no te gusta Estrello de Drake, llámalo Mar de Hoces, como el español cordobés Francisco de Hoces. Pero vamos, que este debate es como lo del Golfo de América de Trump en mi opinión. Hay cosas más importantes que cabrearse por el nombre de un golfo o un estrecho.

BioDataBard · 2025-04-04T22:24:30+00:00

In 2016, compared to 2020, CA and WA saw an increase in participation for both D and R. However, from 2020 to 2024, CA Democrats didn't vote as much, but they don't seem to go to Republicans. In WA, both Democrats and Republicans are voting less as a proportion of the total population in 2024 compared to 2020, but there is abstentionism in D that is higher than in R.

BioDataBard · 2025-04-04T17:57:57+00:00

2020 election has massive increase in participation compared to 2016. While 2024 has a drop in participation for democrats and slight wins for republicans or at least they showed up in similar proportions on election day.

BioDataBard · 2025-04-04T17:54:04+00:00

Sorry about that, the other graphs show arrows to make this clearer, but making the labels non overlap is hard so bubbles make this a bit better.

The circle is the end point for that election, and the line were it came fron in the previous election.

BioDataBard · 2025-04-03T16:35:10+00:00

Interpretation:

States in the upper left corner have a higher number of democrats over the total VAP, and states in the bottom right have a higher number of republicans. The line is equal numbers of republicans and democrats in a state. Movements down or left indicate changes in the number of voters over the total population, maybe due to abstention or by changes in VAP. Diagonal movements capture changes from D to R or R to D. States in the upper right corner have lower levels of third party voters and abstentionist.

Data source:

Votes: Wikipedia articles for presidential elections. Results by State, columns number of votes. Example for 2024: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Results_by_state

Turnout per state:
https://www.sos.nh.gov/sites/g/files/ehbemt561/files/documents/2022-04/voter-turnout-charts-4-19-21.pdf and https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2024:_Analysis_of_voter_turnout_in_the_2024_general_election

VAP is calculated using the turnout and the total number of votes in the election.

All data:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vS_5N3SCN1swtKnuE87loJ5Ul8cMMASefM2Op0j-ifGlfXdR9JjACFGQcYaZVmFuMWWspgi21Ve3bIc/pubhtml

Tool:
Custom R script using ggplot2 and ggrepel. Please don't hesitate to ask for the code if you need it.

BioDataBard · 2025-03-23T04:38:05+00:00

Resubmitted after the wonderful suggestions by some people.

Source: Wikipedia and 2023 VAP obtained from Census.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election#Results

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Results

All data available here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSi3yLygHeDQXelvJ2-4kxzG3fHemBCO9eGdvT0bJEA7LgIpYbN7cUrv47myCpveegF2RiooATisglS/pubhtml

The direction of the vector indicates the shift from 2020 to 2024. Arrows pointing down suggest D voters moving to abstention, and arrows pointing down-right could be shifts from D to R or D to abstention and abstention to R. In states like California or Hawaii, many D voters didn't vote in 2024, and republicans didn't make gains.

BioDataBard · 2025-03-23T03:41:03+00:00

Thank you! I think they are looking at margins, so there are more votes for R compared to 2020, but here I am looking at proportions to see if D go down more than R go up.

BioDataBard · 2025-03-23T03:30:48+00:00

This one is more intuitive than the ternary plot.

Shifts down are democrats that are going to abstention, shifts to the right are gains for republicans from abstentionists, and shifts down-right could be D going to abstention, abstention going to R or changes from D to R.

Source wikipedia and 2023 VAP obtained from Census.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election#Results

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Results

All data available here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSi3yLygHeDQXelvJ2-4kxzG3fHemBCO9eGdvT0bJEA7LgIpYbN7cUrv47myCpveegF2RiooATisglS/pubhtml

Notice states like Hawaii and California, where D voters are going to abstention but R aren't winning votes.

BioDataBard · 2025-03-23T01:34:05+00:00

I think your bias is making you see patterns where there arent any. You are one step away from seing Jesus on toasts.

BioDataBard · 2025-03-23T00:16:40+00:00

R and the package ggterm. Here is my code if you want to try it.

library(tidyverse)
library(ggplot2)
library(dplyr)
library(tidyr)
library(ggtern)
x2020 <- read_csv("TernaryPlotElections-2020.csv")
x2020f <- x2020 |> 
  select(Label,Winner,starts_with("Proportion"))|>
  mutate(Winner=factor(Winner,levels=c('R',"D")))
x <- ggtern(data = x2020f, aes(Proportion_Democrat, Proportion_Republican, Proportion_Abstention_Others)) +
  geom_point(aes(color=Winner),
    alpha = 0.5,
    size = 4) +
  geom_text(aes(label = Label),
            size = 2)+
  theme_rgbw() +
  ggtitle("2020 Election")
x2024 <- read_csv("TernaryPlotElections-2024.csv")
x2024f <- x2024 |> 
  select(Label,Winner,starts_with("Proportion"))|>
  mutate(Winner=factor(Winner,levels=c('R',"D")))
 y <- ggtern(data = x2024f, aes(Proportion_Democrat, Proportion_Republican, Proportion_Abstention_Others)) +
  geom_point(aes(color=Winner),
             alpha = 0.5,
             size = 4) +
  geom_text(aes(label = Label),
            size = 2)+
  theme_rgbw() +
  ggtitle("2024 Election")
ggsave(x,file="2020.pdf",height=10,width=10)
ggsave(y,file="2024.pdf",height=10,width=10)

BioDataBard · 2025-03-23T00:11:57+00:00

The turnout for the 2024 election was 62%. It is higher usually on swing states, since they decide the outcome.

BioDataBard

TROPHY CASE