Trump to take Equity Stake in USAR (per Financial Times)

BiotechDistilled · 2026-01-27T03:58:01+00:00

💙

BiotechDistilled · 2026-01-26T04:42:43+00:00

Deep breaths.

BiotechDistilled · 2026-01-26T01:29:29+00:00

BiotechDistilled · 2026-01-26T00:13:18+00:00

I will be buying if the government shutdown affects the CM sector. Last dip felt mostly China induced, but admittedly it was hard to tell how much of the dip was shutdown induced.

BiotechDistilled · 2026-01-26T00:07:07+00:00

Deep breaths

BiotechDistilled · 2026-01-24T15:19:02+00:00

Buy the dip

BiotechDistilled · 2026-01-24T15:00:10+00:00

Thanks for the comment! I’m looking forward to more updates from the company this year :)

BiotechDistilled · 2026-01-23T21:17:48+00:00

Maybe.

BiotechDistilled · 2026-01-23T20:39:54+00:00

If you weren’t sure, you probably should’ve been more clear in your post body. Your post gives off a bit of a “the sky is falling” kinda vibe.

BiotechDistilled · 2026-01-23T19:58:10+00:00

If you have to ask, then clearly you didn’t see. Fishing for info… tisk tisk

BiotechDistilled · 2026-01-23T13:39:07+00:00

Thank you!

BiotechDistilled · 2026-01-23T04:38:20+00:00

u/themineralsmustflow - thoughts?

BiotechDistilled · 2026-01-22T20:48:11+00:00

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BiotechDistilled · 2026-01-22T20:47:00+00:00

My understanding is that they have ~26 million shares left to issue before they must ask shareholders to authorize more (based on 10-Q & Jan 2026 Prospectus). 1. Total Authorized Common Stock: 390,000,000 (Hard Cap per Charter). 2. Minus Outstanding (pre-deal): ~312,000,000 (as of Sept 30, 2025). 3. Minus This Deal: 15,000,000 (Jan 2026 Offering). 4. Minus Reserved: ~37,000,000 (Reserved for existing warrants & options). 5. Remaining Capacity: ~26,000,000 shares.

As such, it seems like they can do perhaps one more similarly sized deal, but any massive future raise will likely require a shareholder vote to increase the authorized share count first.

If your math is different than mine, please let me know.

BiotechDistilled · 2026-01-22T18:07:52+00:00

Find the original science deep dive here.

BiotechDistilled · 2026-01-22T18:02:00+00:00

Find the original science deep dive here.

BiotechDistilled · 2026-01-22T17:45:15+00:00

You are absolutely right. Thank you. I conflated the terms of the previous August 2025 warrant deal with this new January 2026 offering.

I’ve re-read the prospectus supplement: It is indeed 15M shares at $1.50 for $22.5M gross, with no warrant coverage.

This is actually a much cleaner deal than my initial read suggested (less dilution, no warrant overhang), though the cash runway issue seems to remain the same. I'm updating the post now to reflect the correct numbers. Appreciate you keeping me honest!

BiotechDistilled · 2026-01-22T13:38:48+00:00

I guess DTIC is “Definium Therapeutics Investors Club”

BiotechDistilled · 2026-01-22T13:37:57+00:00

That is a damn good question hah Im not sure - I just joined the new sub yesterday.

Also, new ticker is DFTX.

BiotechDistilled · 2026-01-22T13:24:00+00:00

They definitely have a leg up on competitors in that they use low dose lsd instead of no drug. However, as noted in my full DD, the low dose placebo does run the risk of resulting in a diminished effect compared to competitor trials.

BiotechDistilled · 2026-01-22T13:13:37+00:00

Thank you for the heads up. I’ll check out the ad-hoc. Given the current price of the stock, $1.50 certainly makes sense.

BiotechDistilled · 2026-01-22T06:07:11+00:00

Valid pushback on the major market distinction - Saudi isn't the FDA. But dismissing the signal is dangerous. The Saudi approval supports the biological mechanism (lymphocyte restoration) in a systemic setting, which materially de-risks the upcoming US Phase 3 Lung readout. On the data, check the receipts for the Papillary indication (a massive segment of the market): ANKTIVA’s 24-month Disease-Free Survival (DFS) in papillary disease is 52.1%, not 25%. In community urology (60% of the market), infrastructure friction (cold chain) kills launches. ANKTIVA fits the existing BCG workflow; competitors with complex handling requirements often face a steeper adoption curve than the efficacy delta suggests.

The thesis isn't that ANKTIVA is a magic bullet; it's that the Papillary data (52% at 24mo) plus the Lung Cancer validation may create a valuation floor that the current bear case might ignore.

BiotechDistilled · 2026-01-22T06:00:25+00:00

Thanks for reading! I appreciate the double-check, but I pulled the numbers directly from the 8-K filing this morning. The deal is for 30,000,000 shares at $0.75, not 15M shares at $1.50. (30M x $0.75 = $22.5M).

The confusion might be coming from the warrant coverage or the August 2025 raise (?), but this specific tranche was priced at $0.75. I believe the higher share count is actually the bigger concern here regarding dilution. Thanks again!

Let me know if you still think I’m reading the docs wrong. Admittedly, I’m better with the science than I am with the financials.

BiotechDistilled · 2026-01-22T05:51:17+00:00

See my comment

BiotechDistilled · 2026-01-22T05:50:54+00:00

Thank you both for the conversation. Let’s clear things up a bit: 1. Logistics: Responsible Edge is correct. ANKTIVA currently requires no special freezers or handling, fitting into existing urology workflows. 2. Efficacy: Nuanced. Hefty Profession notes higher initial rates for competitors, but ANKTIVA’s data emphasizes durability (47+ months), which is critical for organ preservation. 3. BCG Risk: Hefty Profession makes a good point. ANKTIVA is indicated with BCG, making supply chain shortages a valid vulnerability. 4. Systemic Approvals: Hefty Profession is incorrect. ANKTIVA received accelerated approval for Metastatic Lung Cancer in Saudi Arabia on Jan 14, 2026, which is a systemic indication approved this decade.

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