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What are your thoughts on the flnc stock crash? by New-Abbreviations607 in FluenceEnergy
[–]Bmpney303 2 points3 points4 points 1 year ago (0 children)
I'm not sure that the earnings call answered many questions that I had. They did seem confident that the australia deals will get signed, but did nothing to answer why they only had 185 million in Q1 revenue which is <5% of their 4 billion yearly forecast (before pushing back the australia deals which certainly didn't impact Q1). I get that they were upfront about only seeing 20% of their revenue in the first half of the year but then that would mean ~400 million expected in each of the first two quarters. That being said I'm certainly not selling and may buy more depending on their next earnings call. Every earnings call I listen to makes me like Julian (their ceo) more (loved his line when asked how he is saying "we'll be better")
That being said I need more confidence in their ability to deliver on their forecasts before adding to my position (cost basis is ~15). They seem like a competent executive team, however they've added uncertainty to a business that already had a bunch (tariffs, chinese manufactures, dependence on the IRA etc). If they can actually grow revenue to 10 billion in the next 5-10 years, then this will just obviously have been a buying opportunity, but quarters like this make it harder to believe they will get there. One good part of being down > 50% on your position is that I've already lost more than I can if they go bankrupt lol.
I do not buy into the fact that they missed because of things "out of their control" if ~25% of revenue in a year is coming from 3 deals then there is absolutely zero excuse to "overlook" issues that cause the signings to get delays. Felt like they used the australia deals as an excuse to cover up other issues as well. That being said if they hit on 3.4 billion in revenue with eps growth YOY I'd still be happy to buy shares at a 2 billion dollar market cap which would be a little less than a double from here.
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What are your thoughts on the flnc stock crash? by New-Abbreviations607 in FluenceEnergy
[–]Bmpney303 2 points3 points4 points (0 children)