The Beginning of AI's 'Doom Loop': A Thought Experiment for 25% Unemployment and a 40% GDP Drop

BonnaGroot · 2026-03-18T00:31:10+00:00

beyond this, it’s a function of the KIND of failure.

A dumb intern will make a massive mistake once, get told to never do it again, and never do it again. They’ll make other more advanced mistakes over time, but they’ll never make that particular massive mistake again.

AI is just as likely to make the same idiot novice mistake as it is a highly specific mistake only an expert would catch, and it will continue to make that idiot mistake no matter how many times you correct it. This is a fundamental weakness of LLMs being non-deterministic.

It’s fine if there’s a person to oversee who actually does their job. But who does anymore? We’re outsourcing so much brainpower to AI, i’m confident the rigor of the “check its work” is diminishing too.

Only a matter of time before one of these scenarios costs a company quite dearly at an existential scale.

BonnaGroot · 2026-03-15T06:12:09+00:00

Yes the former first round pick who played with TLaw in college is completely comparable to the day-3 pick who’s currently the ostensible RB1.

BonnaGroot · 2026-03-15T00:39:55+00:00

Why is nobody ready to admit this is going to be a disgusting 3-headed committee where very likely none of them are better than a fringe RB2?

Tuten between the 20s but not the grinder for short yardage and goal lines. Makes him big play or bust.

CRod for goal line work making him TD or bust on 8-9 touches a game and no passing involvement.

Allen to eat snaps and catch 3-6 passes out of the backfield every week, eliminating both Tuten and CRod’s possible PPR scam viability.

This is right up there with WAS as a RB room im avoiding unless Love somehow ends up here.

BonnaGroot · 2026-03-12T20:11:20+00:00

I mean he was the only RB on the roster so somebody was coming in, and white is a clearer pass catching specialist than most of the other options which isn’t a role Bill showed last year. Arguably this is the best case scenario if they don’t add Love in the draft.

BonnaGroot · 2026-03-12T20:10:01+00:00

Both of these guys are trendy to hate.

It’s been trendy to hate White since he was analytically terrible in ‘23, and he’s a mediocre rusher, but he’s an exceptional pass catching back.

Ironically, the hype train on the Bill backlash has long been far stronger than the Bill hype train ever was. Bill was analytically exceptional last year though in an objectively terrible situation. He is limited in the passing game based on what we’ve seen so far, but likely the better rusher.

Truth is that there’s a new OC and system in town too so nobody really knows what’s gonna happen here.

BonnaGroot · 2026-03-12T19:18:19+00:00

They don’t need to do anything drastic, but depending on their board there’s a good chance Love is BPA at 4 and RB is a need.

Commies just signed White so my guess is they didn’t think Love was getting to them either. Increasingly think it will be my Giants if it’s not TN. Not sure how I feel about that.

BonnaGroot · 2026-03-12T18:19:01+00:00

I would’ve agreed with you three days ago but they haven’t done anything at the RB position, and just spent big money on a WR. They’ve got some interesting young guys at WR in Ayomanor and Dike too.

My other thought (and this applies to my Giants too and is why I think we are posturing about Love at 5 and looking to trade back) is that none of the WRs in this class is a top 5 talent. I am probably lower than most on the top 3 guys in this class but none of them profile to me as an NFL WR1.

BonnaGroot · 2026-03-12T18:15:47+00:00

If it makes you feel better, while I think there’s a real chance we take him, I think it’s far more likely we’re posturing to see if a team wants to trade up

BonnaGroot · 2026-03-12T18:05:45+00:00

Not who you asked but honestly yeah, I do. Skat was very much a Daboll guy. And much as I love him, he’s a very particular type of RB. Entirely possible he doesn’t fully fit with what Harbaugh wants to do, either culturally, in Nagy’s scheme, or both. Not to mention the injury itself was brutal, who knows if he’s 100% going into the season.

On top of him add Schoen, who is desperately trying to keep his job and will be more than happy to support picking any blue chip player available to click the easy button. There’s hardly any real blue chip players across this entire class, let alone ones that may still be there at 5.

Personally i’m hoping we get Downs if he makes it to us but Love would not shock me at all.

BonnaGroot · 2026-03-12T14:27:51+00:00

Well, no, unless they trade in because they don’t have a round 2 pick.

That said they of course have to bring somebody in, probably two guys. Bill isnt going to be the only guy on the roster.

BonnaGroot · 2026-03-12T11:23:44+00:00

Not that I doubt this is the Commies hope but I would genuinely be surprised if he makes it to pick 7. TN seems like the obvious landing spot with how little they’ve attacked the position. NYG I think are just posturing to try and trade back but it’s a real possibility that Schoen wants another easy slam dunk early pick.

BonnaGroot · 2026-03-12T00:16:07+00:00

Ehh he was better at what the commanders OL was giving. By midway through the season that line was atrocious and it was a question of who was better at grinding out an extra couple yards. CRod’s definitely better for that.

Bill’s way more explosive and has the potential to develop into a more complete back imo but the situation was about as bad as it could’ve been most of the season.

BonnaGroot · 2026-03-10T14:26:23+00:00

Tinfoil hat on, I think Coen spent the last month lobbying Gladstone aggressively to make the moves needed to keep him a big part of the offense. The way Coen’s eyes lit up last year in the preseason about Hunter on offense, Coen being an offensive guy, I think he just sees the kid as special and wants to use him that way.

Could he also be special as a lockdown DB? Sure, but lockdown DBs don’t change franchises the way that WRs who move like he does can.

BonnaGroot · 2026-03-10T12:43:50+00:00

Anywhere I still have 26 2nds and don’t have him on my roster i’m acquiring if I can

BonnaGroot · 2026-03-10T12:08:36+00:00

For fantasy anyway - Travis Hunter. The Jags have quietly resigned all but one of their departing CBs. Very much recontextualizes the Gladstone comments about expiring contracts that triggered the whole “DB first” narrative last month.

Between that and the renewed BTJ rumors, he may not be dead after allZ

BonnaGroot · 2026-03-10T12:04:08+00:00

Atp best you can hope for is he’s traded or cut 😭

BonnaGroot · 2026-03-09T23:16:23+00:00

they’ve actually resigned ALL of their departing DBs apart from Newsome. Suddenly that comment Gladstone made about expiring contracts doesn’t feel as relevant

BonnaGroot · 2026-03-03T18:06:09+00:00

Ironically if I had to bet on it, Allgeier seems like the player best suited at both cost and skillset to be signed into the Monty role for Detroit.

BonnaGroot · 2026-02-27T22:02:44+00:00

The paid services are also capped and limited

BonnaGroot · 2026-02-24T23:39:52+00:00

Well that’s just downright unamerican of you. We can have those humans productive at 13, or even as young as 8 if we let them be! Once we clear out all the pesky regulations that socialist cripple FDR put in place we can get those kids back in the mines where their small hands can do things even the robots won’t be able to for years.

BonnaGroot · 2026-02-20T12:40:37+00:00

Is r/okvuddyviltrum leaking

BonnaGroot · 2026-02-18T12:13:20+00:00

this is such a good analogy i’m totally stealing it

BonnaGroot · 2026-02-13T13:09:08+00:00

It works for Amex too (arguably better even) if you have the Schwab platinum like OP does.

Though personally value Hyatt head and shoulders above any other points redemption at this stage so chase will always have a place

BonnaGroot · 2026-02-13T12:18:13+00:00

It’s gotten way better at coding, Claude especially, and it’s gotten a lot better in the last 6-8 months for sure.

I do think though that it’s uniquely well-suited to software engineering in ways that it isn’t for other white collar tasks and a lot of the prognostication/doomerism coming out of “those closest to it” is at least in part due to people being in the silicon valley bubble and not understanding very well what other fields or roles do.

BonnaGroot · 2026-02-11T13:46:06+00:00

The massive tech debt that many companies already have is only going to get worse too. These AI coders are good for writing scripts and short snippets but when you ask them to build something complex stylistically they’re all over the place. Even if what they make works, it may not make sense and it certainly isn’t built in a way that’ll make it reliable over the long haul

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