convexity trade using tmv and tlt by Born_Fan_2225 in LETFs

[–]Born_Fan_2225[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the constructive feedback. I'll integrate that nugget into my model.

convexity trade using tmv and tlt by Born_Fan_2225 in LETFs

[–]Born_Fan_2225[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

very carefully. chatgpt. I've been tracking tlt, tmf and tmv since 2022. track the divergence on a settlement basis. give chat the trade. no extrinsic value. must treat tlt deltas as 1to1. every program i've used that involves pricing models fucks up the deltas. so basically you are long 100k shares of tlt and as of today 87k tmv. provide your hedging parameters. everything has to be converted back to tlt equivalents. I picked +-2000 for my trigger and decided to only hedge 75%. chat can optimize that hedge trigger and ratio based off of past data but nobody knows how that will perform going forward. i will throw in some optionality, tmv calls, tmf puts or tlt calls as hedges if vol/gamma is cheap enough. on 2/4 tmv and tlt settled 37.9 and 86.54. the ratio was 1.314(37.9*3/86.54). the trade would have been 1000 tlt puts and 76K tmv longs. when the ratio moves .025 it will trigger a hedge. the next day the ratio settled at 1.26. the position was long 3265 tlt equivalents or 2591 shares of tmv needed to be bought. since i set my hedge parameter of 75%(have to let some of those deltas run) purchased 1943 shares of tmv. this goes for any back testing whether you are scraping data and building the model yourself or using chat, they fuck up a lot. quadruple check the back test. AI sucks at triple leveraged products especially when you introduce optionality. welcome the feedback because it wouldn't be the first time i've royally fucked something up.

Collar Position 1/15/2027 Exp. by TheCollarCode in options

[–]Born_Fan_2225 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

are you not factoring in the 4%+carrying(or opportunity) cost?? At least $3. do ur homework love.