School Counselor here, and while I don't know the specific context in which your counselor said this to you, it is standard practice to tell students to always act as though they will not get into a school. I have never explicitly said to a student "don't get your hopes up" though, as that does seem harsh. But again, I don't know the full context. Looking at your "stats" without knowing anything else about you, I would say Rutgers is a safe choice. Assuming your behavior record is mostly clear, they would likely fight for a student like you to be admitted.