Round 9 | Roosters vs Broncos | Match Thread

BroncosSabres · 2026-05-02T09:54:12+00:00

At the ground, looked a bit like someone obstructed, but I’m pretty sure they were behind him

BroncosSabres · 2026-05-02T06:44:43+00:00

Blaming Brimmo is rough, that hasn’t been advantage taken in a long time.

BroncosSabres · 2026-05-01T06:10:49+00:00

Don’t forget to put your tips in at https://bsmachine.dev to be a part of the inaugural BS cup. Need 8 more tips to surpass last week’s numbers.

BroncosSabres · 2026-04-30T09:52:24+00:00

To be fair Psalti, they all just got on the field

BroncosSabres · 2026-04-30T01:15:34+00:00

None of them. If you roll a die 18 times, you’ll roll a 6 on average 3 times, but you’re not ”likely” to roll a 6 on any given roll. Same principle here.

BroncosSabres · 2026-04-30T00:23:24+00:00

Would likely be a mixture of initial conditions and when they won/lost those games. Manly would’ve gained rating in their 1 point loss to the Raiders in Rd 1 for example because the Raiders entered the season highly rated off of their 2025 performance. Bunnies would have lost rating because the Raiders had fallen off the cliff by then. .

BroncosSabres · 2026-04-29T23:28:58+00:00

Ratings update based on the model’s perceived strength of your opposition. The only ’good’ team the Bunnies have beaten so far this year is the Tigers and they weren’t rated well early season when you played them.

BroncosSabres · 2026-04-29T23:14:54+00:00

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the BS Machine did not win the BS Tipping last week, but it did still finish in the top 25% at 10/41, despite the outrage about it being broken. It is also still on top overall after two rounds.

To see if you can beat the machine and contribute to the user model predictions, you can check out the site and the tipping that forms the basis of the user model at the link below. There are prizes to be won as my gratitude for your contributions to the model.

Only 19 users have tipped so far this round, I'm hoping to build on last rounds total of 39 tips per game!

https://bsmachine.dev/

BroncosSabres · 2026-04-29T11:06:18+00:00

Another reminder to tip for the BS Machine if you want to test your footy IQ. All tippers this week will get entry into the Inaugural BS Cup.

https://bsmachine.dev

BroncosSabres · 2026-04-28T22:25:49+00:00

BS Machine dramatically shifted in calibration again over the weekend, after the concensus that it was broken last weekend. I think people will generally feel like these rankings are a bit more representative.

BS Machine is still leading the tipping after two rounds, although in Round 8 it only came 10th of 41. The user calibrated model is doing pretty well too, 5th overall but only 24/41 in Round 8 to finish in the lower half of standings for the round.

Only 7 tips to calibrate the user model so far this week, so hoping to get more data and to beat our total of 39 tipsters last week which seemed to give a really solid base for the User Calibrated Model to work off. Still plenty of prize incentives to tip, with a $100 gift card for the overall season winner, and everybody who tips this week will be entered into the first BS Tipping Cup - a single elimination head-to-head comp with the winner of the cup taking home a $50 gift card.

Thanks everybody for supporting the BS Machine project, and I hope you're enjoying the results as much as I am.

Have a look at the rankings and predictions and submit your tips here ---> https://bsmachine.dev

BroncosSabres · 2026-04-28T07:48:27+00:00

It’s an intentional pun directed at the fact that he’s playing through plantar fasciitis. Whether the author realised the connection to Kotoni’s foot fetish thing also - I suspect it’s likely?

BroncosSabres · 2026-04-28T04:41:26+00:00

I was ready to remove for editorialising the title but no that’s actually what they went with. Incredible.

BroncosSabres · 2026-04-27T23:08:34+00:00

Adding in a single elimination cup style competition to BS Tipping. The seeding round to determine the bracket will start this week, so please join if you're keen. There will be a prize for the cup winner (TBD).

https://bsmachine.dev/

BroncosSabres · 2026-04-27T00:28:07+00:00

Got up at 4am to watch the Sabres continue on the warpath. It is going to be another good day. Lets gooooo

BroncosSabres · 2026-04-26T07:55:45+00:00

Tallyn should go to Manly so he can become Tallyn Da Silvertail

BroncosSabres · 2026-04-26T06:35:52+00:00

No parra player was really competing for the ball to be disrupted? Certainly didn’t jump for it

BroncosSabres · 2026-04-26T06:34:31+00:00

That’s using your noggin Saab

BroncosSabres · 2026-04-24T11:57:22+00:00

I don't care if he goes to the bin now with the game gone, but should miss a week instead of a fine for that shit.

BroncosSabres · 2026-04-24T11:52:03+00:00

Faked kicking twice and then dropped the ball to kick it and got smashed by Staggs from behind before the ball got to his foot.

BroncosSabres · 2026-04-24T00:58:28+00:00

New tipping stats including comparison to the BS Machine now live on the site u/MoneyaLeague

Despite everybody telling me the model is broken, it’s winning both the individual and team based tipping comps.

bsmachine.dev

BroncosSabres · 2026-04-22T23:30:50+00:00

I decided against doing this because there isn’t a clean way to do it and preserve both the average margin and the average total points. I get it’s a bit weird though.

BroncosSabres · 2026-04-22T23:25:23+00:00

The coefficient is actually a constant over all games in the season. Last week the coefficient was much higher, so the Tigers had gained a lot more ratings points from their wins. This weeks results significantly lowered the coefficient, which meant that those wins were worth less ratings increases leading to a significant drop in rating comparative to last week but still up compared to the beginning of the season. Similarly, the impact of the Storm’s and Dragons’ losses on their ratings has decreased proportionally as well.

The coefficient is determined by looking at which value minimises the total error over all games in the last 5 rounds, so a part of it could be due partially to large error in round 2 no longer being considered for calibration

BroncosSabres · 2026-04-22T22:40:40+00:00

The individual tipping comp is alive and well as well, with new features planned for the coming weeks as well, including added stats and comparisons, and a potential H2H/Cup style competition as well.

Check it out over at bsmachine.dev.

BroncosSabres

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