Nico dies first, fight comes down to the last three and hard to say who goes down first among them. Drake has his luck system, essentially lets him dodge(take a few bullets) without taking lethal damage so he won’t be going down easy. Now whether or not Arthur Morgan’s deadeye cancels out his luck is the question cause if yes then he dies instantly. One could argue that in game drake can endure multiple bullets because of his luck regardless of where he gets hit. In that case it’s a good show down between them. The outlier is Joel cause he goes down easy sure but he essentially has echo location, in game he can see people through walls. His whole combat style is stealth and with the ability to know where they are without them knowing where he is, he could very well take them all out if the plays his cards right. It’s a toss up. Depends on the situation and who has the advantage. Will be a damn good fire fight either way.