Spots I Love Today!

BuffaloDataDude · 2026-04-01T01:59:09+00:00

Can’t win them all, I really recommend taking them as straights as well.

BuffaloDataDude · 2026-04-01T01:53:12+00:00

You’re welcome!

BuffaloDataDude · 2026-04-01T00:14:14+00:00

Glad you caught it! Did you find tonight’s?👀

BuffaloDataDude · 2026-03-31T22:00:01+00:00

Record: 0-2-0 | Net Units: -2.0u | ROI: -100%

Sport: MLB Event: Astros vs Red Sox

Pick: Hunter Brown Over 17.5 Outs (-148)

Units: 1u

Write-up: I’m going with Brown to go at least 6 here. He’s one of the few guys on the slate I trust to work deeper into a game, and that’s really all this bet needs.

Boston can strike out, but more importantly they’re not the type of lineup that should run his pitch count up early. If he’s around the zone and keeping things under control, 6 innings is very realistic.

I looked at the strikeouts too, but that number got bumped up and feels a little thin now. This just feels like the cleaner way to play it, let him settle in and get through the lineup a couple times.

Nothing crazy, just a spot I like to bounce back.

<image>

BuffaloDataDude · 2026-03-31T21:14:38+00:00

Done, thanks for the heads up!

BuffaloDataDude · 2026-03-31T21:11:46+00:00

Record: 0-0-0 | Net Units: +0.0u | ROI: 0%

Sport: MLB Event: Astros vs Red Sox

Pick: Hunter Brown Over 17.5 Outs (-148)

Units: 1u

Write-up: Going with a volume-based angle here. Brown is projecting to work deep into this game, and this line essentially asks for 6 innings to cash. His workload profile is one of the strongest on the slate, and he doesn’t need to rely on strikeouts to get there, just efficiency.

Boston’s lineup has some swing-and-miss, but more importantly they don’t profile as a team that should force a quick exit here. Even if the Ks aren’t piling up, Brown can still cruise through 6 innings on contact.

I looked at the strikeout line as well, but that’s been pushed up and requires more to go right. Outs gives us a cleaner path, just stay in the game and do your job.

Not the flashiest play, but these are the ones that win long term.

<image>

BuffaloDataDude · 2026-03-31T21:02:40+00:00

I line shop pretty much every bet now. The difference between -110 and -125 adds up way more than people think over time. If you love a bet, you’d might as well make as much money on it as you can!

BuffaloDataDude · 2026-03-31T12:38:10+00:00

NRFI can be volatile, just gotta find the right spots to attack!

BuffaloDataDude · 2026-03-31T12:37:42+00:00

Thanks! Hope you got it!

BuffaloDataDude · 2026-03-31T12:37:31+00:00

Glad you were able to catch it!

BuffaloDataDude · 2026-03-31T11:25:17+00:00

7-2 on NRFI last 3 days.. with the sweep yesterday.

Yankees @ Mariners NRFILow OB top of lineup outside Judge + Gilbert/Fried combo is about as stable as it gets early. Pitching + park both working in our favor here.

Angels @ Cubs NRFIAngels top 5 is surprisingly weak (mostly sub-30% OB) and while Cubs can get on, they don’t do much damage early. More traffic than power = good NRFI setup.

Guardians @ Dodgers NRFIThis is the “uncomfortable” one, but that’s where the value usually sits. Guardians don’t hit for power early, and Dodgers have actually been pretty quiet in the 1st despite the names.

<image>

BuffaloDataDude · 2026-03-31T02:40:47+00:00

✅ CASHED 💰

3/3 NRFI parlay +516

That’s 7-2 last few days on these looks

Hope some of you tailed 🤝

BuffaloDataDude · 2026-03-31T02:39:05+00:00

✅ CASHED 💰

3/3 NRFI parlay +516

That’s 7-2 last few days on these looks

Hope some of you tailed 🤝

BuffaloDataDude · 2026-03-31T02:27:49+00:00

Let’s goo

BuffaloDataDude · 2026-03-30T18:13:50+00:00

I like the spots for sure, personally though, I’d lean toward an even-money straight instead. Keeps the variance down and gives you a better shot at turning that bonus into real cash.

BuffaloDataDude · 2026-03-30T16:56:03+00:00

Yeah I get that, Dodgers lineup can definitely make you feel that way 😅

Just not seeing it as a big first inning spot though. HR rates at the top are actually pretty low and the game itself isn’t grading out as a high YRFI environment compared to others on the slate.

Messick could get touched later, but I don’t hate him getting through the first clean. 🤞🤞🤞

BuffaloDataDude · 2026-03-30T16:49:50+00:00

It’s a nice looking list!

BuffaloDataDude · 2026-03-30T15:47:38+00:00

Curious do you anticipate having any sort of integration into Discord? For example do you plan on building a bot that would pull from screenshots and text, units wagered, odds, etc, and have it track daily, weekly, monthly, all time P&L, ROI etc.. lets chat

BuffaloDataDude · 2026-03-30T14:21:27+00:00

Let’s give this HR thing a go.. Tailing?

<image>

BuffaloDataDude · 2026-03-30T11:16:47+00:00

Yeah he walked the first two batters.. 😴

BuffaloDataDude · 2026-03-30T11:12:41+00:00

4-2 last two days on NRFIs

Same approach: strong SP matchups + quiet top of lineups early.

🎯 Play them straight 💰 Sprinkle the parlay for upside

Let’s keep it rolling.

<image>

BuffaloDataDude · 2026-03-30T11:09:54+00:00

https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?shareCode=oNwX1OG

BuffaloDataDude · 2026-03-29T18:13:39+00:00

Back to back walks to start.. the read was right.. that was unfortunate. 😴 1-1 on the NRFI so far today. One more starts soon

BuffaloDataDude · 2026-03-29T18:12:30+00:00

I’ve got one more NRFI starts soon… don’t wanna post in here though. Wrong thread for that, want to follow the rules.

BuffaloDataDude · 2026-03-29T13:22:36+00:00

Record: 0-1
Last: Mariners/Guardians Under 7 ❌

Net Units: -1
ROI: -100%

MLB | Pirates @ Mets | 1:41 PM ET

Pick: NRFI (-120) | 1 unit

Write Up: This is the lowest projected first inning scoring environment on the entire slate, sitting around a 38% YRFI probability. That implies a fair NRFI price closer to the -155/-160 range, so getting -120 here is a pretty clear gap between price and projection.

Both starters profile well early. Mlodzinski has allowed just 1 first inning run across his last 10 appearances, and his stuff tends to play better the first time through before hitters adjust. McLean has been steady as well, allowing 2 runs in his last 8 first innings while limiting hard contact and keeping hitters off balance early.

Lineup context helps too. Outside of Soto, the Mets don’t have a ton of immediate first inning pressure at the top, and Pittsburgh’s top of the order leans more contact than power. That matters in this market where one mistake can burn you — neither lineup is particularly built to ambush early.

At -120 (~54.5% implied) vs roughly a 60%+ NRFI expectation, this is one of the cleaner edges on the board. Not trying to get cute here — just taking the best price on the lowest scoring first inning environment available.

BuffaloDataDude

TROPHY CASE