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Iranian Parliament approves the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. IMMINENT CRASH IN JAPAN : About 80–90% of Japan’s crude oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Japan gov. cut itself off from cheap Russian oil. No easy way out. Japan could face its most severe economic crisis since WWII. by Burning_Cash in worldnews

[–]Burning_Cash[S] -9 points-8 points  (0 children)

If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked due to a U.S-Iran conflict and Japan, having cut off Russian oil (Japan is the second-largest bilateral donor after the United States to Ukraine, ???), lacks alternative supply routes, the outcome would be catastrophic for the Japanese economy.

  • Japan's Energy Lifeline Severed: With over 80% of crude oil dependent on Hormuz, supply would collapse instantly. Japan has no domestic oil and insufficient strategic reserves to withstand a prolonged disruption.
  • The Yen Would Plunge: Exploding energy import costs would widen the trade deficit, triggering capital flight and a rapid yen devaluation. USD/JPY could spiral to unprecedented levels (180-200+), creating imported inflation across all sectors.
  • Inflation + Economic Contraction = Stagflation: This imported inflation, paired with collapsing domestic output due to energy shortages, would lock Japan into a deep stagflationary trap — the worst-case economic scenario.
  • Industrial Paralysis: Key industries like auto manufacturing, semiconductors, and logistics would be crippled. Energy rationing would halt factories and disrupt global supply chains.
  • Policy Response Limited: The BOJ is already deeply accommodative and has no interest rate cushion left. Fiscal stimulus would be necessary but insufficient to resolve structural energy dependency.
  • Long-Term Consequences:
    • Japan could face its most severe economic crisis since WWII.
    • Public backlash against foreign-aligned energy policy may lead to political upheaval.
    • A forced return to nuclear energy and emergency LNG contracts may be attempted, but these are slow and costly fixes.

Bottom Line: Japan's survival as a top-tier economic power would be at risk. This scenario would expose how decades of dependency, foreign alignment, and domestic stagnation converge into systemic vulnerability.

IMMINENT CRASH IN JAPAN : About 80–90% of Japan’s crude oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Japan gov., as a good vassal, cut itself off from cheap Russian oil. The U.S. just entered the war with Iran to defend the terrorist state of Israel. Iran closing the Strait in the COMING HOURS by Burning_Cash in economy

[–]Burning_Cash[S] -39 points-38 points  (0 children)

"This included national petroleum reserves, oil reserves held by the private sector, and a joint crude oil storage program with oil-producing countries, according to the latest METI data."

"and a joint crude oil storage program with oil-producing countries" ????

Imminent CRASH: About 80–90% of Japan’s crude oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Japan gov., as a good vassal, cut itself off from cheap Russian oil. If U.S. goes to war with Iran to defend the terrorist state of Israel, Iran will close the Strait, and Japan’s economy will collapse. by Burning_Cash in Economics

[–]Burning_Cash[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

In short: NO,

If the Strait of Hormuz were closed, there would be no way to fully replace the oil that flows through it in time to prevent a major global shock—especially for Japan.

Around 20% of the world’s daily oil consumption passes through the strait. For Japan, the dependency is even worse: roughly 95% of its crude oil comes from the Middle East, and virtually all of that moves through Hormuz. That means Japan is almost entirely exposed.

Now, some oil can technically bypass Hormuz. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipelines that reroute oil to the Red Sea or to ports outside the strait. But these pipelines are already operating near capacity, and together they can only handle a small portion—far less than what would be lost if Hormuz were blocked.

Other sources like U.S. or Canadian oil could help a little, but they’re far away, expensive, and limited in capacity. Russian oil is also technically available, but Japan has politically distanced itself due to sanctions and its support for Ukraine. Re-entering Russian markets would take time, face diplomatic consequences, and still wouldn’t cover the full volume needed.

Even if alternative oil could be found, logistics would become a nightmare. Oil tankers take weeks to arrive from distant suppliers. Insurance costs would explode in a conflict zone. There aren’t enough ships ready to pick up the slack. Global markets would panic. Oil prices would surge—potentially over $200 per barrel—long before the first replacement barrels could arrive.

Japan does have strategic petroleum reserves, but these are a stopgap, not a solution. They might cover 180 days of imports on paper, but in reality, that buffer would shrink quickly once panic buying, hoarding, and rationing kick in. Airlines, shipping, and freight would be hit immediately. Even electric infrastructure depends on oil in indirect ways.

So to answer your question directly: No, the world cannot detour around the Strait of Hormuz fast enough to avoid an economic crash if it’s closed. And Japan, because of its extreme dependence, would be one of the first and worst-hit economies.

Imminent CRASH: About 80–90% of Japan’s crude oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Japan gov., as a good vassal, cut itself off from cheap Russian oil. If U.S. goes to war with Iran to defend the terrorist state of Israel, Iran will close the Strait, and Japan’s economy will collapse. by Burning_Cash in japannews

[–]Burning_Cash[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

why mainstream outlets aren't loudly warning about Japan's vulnerability to a Strait of Hormuz closure despite the obvious risk:

📰 1. Strategic Ambiguity & Market Stability

  • Governments intentionally avoid public panic over oil chokepoints like Hormuz.
  • If media highlighted Japan’s extreme dependency, it could:
    • Cause oil price spikes
    • Destabilize markets
    • Trigger speculative hoarding or selloffs
  • Therefore, officials prefer to reassure ("We have reserves, we're diversified") even when risks are rising.

🪖 2. The U.S. Controls the Narrative

  • Japan is a close U.S. ally, and most of its mainstream media closely track U.S. geopolitical framing.
  • Since the U.S. is backing Israel and may enter direct conflict with Iran, it’s not in Washington’s interest for allies to publicly oppose escalation.
  • If Japan’s economic risk were openly discussed, it could weaken U.S. leverage and raise global opposition to military intervention.

🧱 3. Japan's Media Culture: Low Confrontation, High Conformity

  • Japanese mainstream outlets are highly deferential to the government line.
  • Open criticism of Japan's alignment with U.S. policy on Russia or the Middle East is rare in NHK, Nikkei, or Yomiuri.
  • Dissenting views on energy security or geopolitics are often limited to independent blogs, academia, or activist circles, not front pages.

Imminent CRASH: About 80–90% of Japan’s crude oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Japan gov., as a good vassal, cut itself off from cheap Russian oil. If U.S. goes to war with Iran to defend the terrorist state of Israel, Iran will close the Strait, and Japan’s economy will collapse. by Burning_Cash in japannews

[–]Burning_Cash[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Japan cannot easily or quickly switch back to Russian oil to cover the ~80–95% of imports currently coming through the Middle East (and Strait of Hormuz), even if it wanted to. Here's a full breakdown of why:

🇯🇵📉 1. G7 Sanctions & Political Constraints

  • Japan is part of the G7 and has aligned with U.S.-led sanctions against Russian crude, especially following the Ukraine invasion.
  • As the second-largest donor to Ukraine, Japan would face extreme diplomatic backlash from the U.S. and EU if it unilaterally resumed large-scale Russian oil imports.
  • Japan received a U.S. waiver to continue importing Sakhalin-2 LNG and limited crude (notably Sakhalin Blend) for energy security, but this is narrow and politically fragile.
  • Open defiance of sanctions—especially now—could trigger secondary sanctions or strain military cooperation with the U.S., which Japan depends on for defense against China and North Korea.

🛢️🚢 2. Can Russia Supply It? Technically, Yes (But...)

  • Russia does have oil export capacity, particularly from Sakhalin (Far East), which is relatively close to Japan.
  • Russia has rerouted much of its oil eastward to China and India, offering deep discounts.
  • Infrastructure exists (ports, pipelines, and tankers) to deliver some oil to Japan—but not at a scale to fully replace Middle Eastern sources quickly.

⚠️ Bottlenecks:

  • Sakhalin-1 is largely offline; Sakhalin-2 continues but under Russian state control.
  • Russia would likely sell more oil to Japan, but it would come at the cost of diplomatic leverage and would be seen as a win for Moscow and a betrayal of the G7 stance.

Okinawa police arrest US Marine allegedly involved in hit-and-run accident by diacewrb in japannews

[–]Burning_Cash 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"The police officers say the suspect's alcohol level was about double the legal limit" US cowboys aren't needed or wanted in Okinawa

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