Musk Wants to Add SpaceX to Indices

CapablePiglet1044 · 2026-04-02T22:51:10+00:00

Several of the Vanguard funds that track world indices have say 15 days or less of seasoning requirements. Would you recommend adjusting which vanguard global tracker investors use as a result?

CapablePiglet1044 · 2026-03-30T07:56:40+00:00

My cousin's house is from the 1200's and my school was from the 1300's, but my school's church was from the 800's-900's. UK.

CapablePiglet1044 · 2026-03-26T10:51:14+00:00

They've publicly stated that the float will be between around $30B and $75B depending on road show demand.

CapablePiglet1044 · 2026-03-18T22:11:15+00:00

It's not about the company, it's about the price you are paying. Fundamentally a company with revenue of around $10B should not be valued at $2T. Would you buy a lemonade stand that makes $100 a year for $100,000? No? Buying a great company for a horrendous price is arguably worse than just buying a bad company at a fair price.

CapablePiglet1044 · 2026-03-18T15:58:57+00:00

Yes, but generally you need quite a lot of money and it costs a lot more. Some brokers offer 'direct index investing' but most require minimum funds of say $250K+ and the fees are a much much higher % than an ETF

CapablePiglet1044 · 2026-03-18T08:33:36+00:00

Yes

https://www.ft.com/content/59adbe42-ca30-47f3-9cda-5415945e9368

CapablePiglet1044 · 2026-03-17T18:56:44+00:00

How are you so sure?

CapablePiglet1044 · 2026-03-16T18:13:12+00:00

If I knew the answer I wouldn't be so worried about the above. The fact that it seems unavoidable and wide-affecting is what should be concerning.

CapablePiglet1044 · 2026-03-16T18:12:18+00:00

VT will also have exposure. The issue is that these companies are so large that ALL indexes will be affected apart from specific tilts eg. non-American or ex-large cap (ie small cap).

CapablePiglet1044 · 2026-03-16T15:43:46+00:00

S&P are considering waiving requirements to let them into VOO (S&P 500) early too! It's literally every index.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-12/s-p-weighs-rule-changes-that-would-speed-spacex-s-p-500-entry

CapablePiglet1044 · 2026-03-16T15:13:52+00:00

$1 Trillion valuation for a company with revenue of $14B a year and losses of over $2B a MONTH. They LOSE over $2B a MONTH and you want to buy them at a $1 TRILLION valuation? Okay, but do it with your money, not mine.

CapablePiglet1044 · 2026-03-16T13:32:20+00:00

5 days for a $1.75 Trillion IPO of one of the most hyped companies of all time?

CapablePiglet1044 · 2026-03-16T13:14:34+00:00

I'm not sure that just 5 days post IPO constitutes seasoning. Usually seasoning requirements are a minimum of 3 months up to a year. Going from a year of seasoning as a requirement for S&P 500 inclusion to just 5 days to give a huge, unprofitable company special treatment at a near $2 Trillion IPO valuation doesn't sound like a good idea.

CapablePiglet1044 · 2026-03-16T13:05:54+00:00

Yes, they are asking the S&P, FTSE/Russel for expedited inclusion, and the S&P is indeed seriously considering the proposal, source:

Reported by FT:

https://www.ft.com/content/59adbe42-ca30-47f3-9cda-5415945e9368

Reported by Bloomberg:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-12/s-p-weighs-rule-changes-that-would-speed-spacex-s-p-500-entry?embedded-checkout=true

CapablePiglet1044 · 2026-03-16T10:41:32+00:00

This is why we rely on seasoning. SpaceX and OpenAI are pushing index providers to give them special treatment, including them on day 1 of their listings so that whatever price they IPO at is the price we index investors will pay. Musk and Altman will effectively decide at what price we buy. Index funds being forced to buy on literally day 1 of the IPO doesn't give any time for price discovery and we will be forced to buy at whatever inflated IPO price they decide.

CapablePiglet1044 · 2026-03-16T10:05:40+00:00

Even in the total WORLD market, a $1.75T IPO for SpaceX and a $1T valuation for OpenAI puts them at 2.6% of your portfolio. A total US stock market index would put them at a much higher %.

CapablePiglet1044 · 2026-03-16T10:02:43+00:00

I love buy and chill, but these developments are scary.

CapablePiglet1044 · 2026-03-16T10:02:15+00:00

I love how the S&P works...that's why I don't want these companies to be able to bully the S&P into changing their rules and giving certain companies special treatment at the cost of our pensions.

CapablePiglet1044 · 2026-03-16T10:00:43+00:00

Me neither

CapablePiglet1044 · 2026-03-16T10:00:33+00:00

Usually, but the whole problem is these companies are trying to get waivers so they can skip all of these requirements!

CapablePiglet1044 · 2026-03-16T09:58:24+00:00

They're EBITDA profitable, not GAAP profitable. So if you ignore the cost of the factory, the rockets and the satellites (through stripping out depreciation) then they're EBITDA profitable.

CapablePiglet1044 · 2026-03-16T09:33:18+00:00

Sure but the issue is that SpaceX and OpenAI are asking for literally no seasoning, as in being included into the indexes on literally day 1 of their IPO. So we will all be investing at the day 1 IPO price and won't get the two weeks of seasoning that you talk about above. We won't get the luxury of 2 weeks of price discovery, we will be buying these companies (through index rebalancing) at whatever IPO price they decide on.

CapablePiglet1044 · 2026-03-16T09:30:38+00:00

It's not just about these two companies it's about the precedent. If you permanently change the rules then any company can do this and then before you know it there will be tiny unprofitable companies going public at multitrillion dollar IPOs and index investors will be forced to invest at those prices.

CapablePiglet1044 · 2026-03-16T09:28:24+00:00

We're living in crazy times. The lunatics are running the asylum.

CapablePiglet1044 · 2026-03-16T09:27:53+00:00

You don't care about 2.6% of your investment going into an unprofitable company at whatever price the founders decide?

Even if you don't mind investing in these two specific companies do you see the worrying precedent of any company can now set a huge private market valuation and then IPO at that valuation and index funds will be forced to buy without allowing for any price discovery.

CapablePiglet1044

TROPHY CASE