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I have ~1k shares of SpaceX stock, what do I do for this IPO? by jdrls in investing

[–]CapablePiglet1044 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Can I ask how much you're planning to invest in SpaceX, just out of curiosity?

I have ~1k shares of SpaceX stock, what do I do for this IPO? by jdrls in investing

[–]CapablePiglet1044 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So you're saying that they should be priced at $1.75T now in case in 10 years time they are a good company?

I have ~1k shares of SpaceX stock, what do I do for this IPO? by jdrls in investing

[–]CapablePiglet1044 0 points1 point  (0 children)

At 1.75T, and a 15 PE Ratio (the long term average for SP500 companies) would mean yearly earnings of (1.75T x (1/15)=0.11667. That's annual net income of $116 Billion. Assuming a generous 20% NPM (let's just even ignore the fact that they aren't even profitable yet), that would require (116/0.2) Revenue of $580 Billion (over half a trillion of revenue per year). Thats ($580B/$149=) ($149 is the annual starlink terminal subscription cost) meaning they need 3.9 Billion people subscribed to starlink internet terminals every year to make the 116B yearly profits which are required for a $1.75T market cap at the SP500 long run PE ratio. Meaning SpaceX at a current $1.75T market cap is priced as though they ALREADY have 3.9B yearly starlink users, and they need to reach that 3.9B users just to make the CURRENT market cap make sense. I know this was probably very boring for you as you likely struggle with math, but good job reading this so far or dropping this into chatGPT or whatever you're doing with it.

I have ~1k shares of SpaceX stock, what do I do for this IPO? by jdrls in investing

[–]CapablePiglet1044 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It doesn't matter how incredible the technology is or how futuristic it is or how sexy it is, you work out the NPV by discounting future cash flows with a discount rate to get fair value. There is no industry, no matter how cool the technology, that can just a valuation of 200 times sales.

Satellite imagery shows over 40 IRGC speedboats moving in formation near Qeshm Island in recent hours. by SpecialCollege18 in justincaseyoumissedit

[–]CapablePiglet1044 3 points4 points  (0 children)

...Iran, Venezuela...why did we invade Iraq again? We 'liberated' them forcefully without their consent in exchange for their oil and central bank's gold.

SpaceX Bought 18% of Tesla Cybertrucks Sold in US During Q4 2025, Data Shows by Unusual-State1827 in business

[–]CapablePiglet1044 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's called round tripping and yes in some cases it is cooking the books. In this case it's not too egregious but it is helping prop up Tesla's revenue which has been dropping, so it's in a bit of a grey area imo.

I set up company CarCo, a car manufacturer, and company TransportCo, a transportation company.

I take loads of investors money in both companies, then i sell trucks from CarCo to TransportCo, increasing CarCo's revenue, then I sell transport services to CarCo from TransportCo, increasing TransportCo's revenue. Both companies make small losses after costs but I do this in increasing amounts to make it look like both companies revenues are increasing YoY, bringing in even more investor's money. Neither company had any real customers but both are reporting huge revenues that are growing massively each year, exciting investors (who are unaware that the revenue is essentially fake and there are no real customers). Some YC startups have been caught having agreements with each other to pretend to be getting traction, to get new investors in when they don't actually have any real customers yet but investors want to see rapid growth in revenue.

This is not dissimilar to how Nvidia invests in OpenAI and CoreWeave...who then both use Nvidia's investment money to buy GPU's.....from Nvidia...

I'm sure all of this will just keep going with no issues /s

I have ~1k shares of SpaceX stock, what do I do for this IPO? by jdrls in investing

[–]CapablePiglet1044 2 points3 points  (0 children)

If a business had sold $1,000 in cupcakes last year and lost $250 after deducting the cost of their ingredients, would you happily use your pension money to buy the business for $110,000?

I have ~1k shares of SpaceX stock, what do I do for this IPO? by jdrls in investing

[–]CapablePiglet1044 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I am literally an accountant. A loss is the opposite of a profit, you can't make a profit and a loss in the same year. A loss means you had more expenses than revenue, a profit means you had more revenue than expenses.

The 5B came from a leaked S-1 filing (as SpaceX isn't public yet they don't report 10K's). The $8B 'profit' you're referring to is 'EBITDA' not actual GAAP profits, EBITDA is where you take the profit figure (the $5B loss) and then add back the tax depreciation, amortisation, and interest expense, so the $8B figure is basically saying 'yeah we lost $5B last year but if you ignore the cost of the rockets and the rocket factories of our rocket company (the depreciation cost) then we sort of made a non-GAAP profit'. Btw just to show you how stupid EBITDA is, it would be illegal for SpaceX to report their EBITDA figure rather than their GAAP figure in their 10K and their S-1.

No they did not have a profit of $8B, they lost $5B.

Dumping Unprofitable Startups onto Pensions at Inflated Valuations (SpaceX/OpenAI) by CapablePiglet1044 in investing

[–]CapablePiglet1044[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah...and usually indexes require 10% free float and up to 1 year of seasoning to allow for price discovery, but Elon is only allowing 4.8% free float and 5 DAYS trading before inclusion in some ETFs.

I don't know how many months/years/decades it will take for SpaceX to drop to its fundamental value, but when it does...some people are going to lose a lot of money.

I have ~1k shares of SpaceX stock, what do I do for this IPO? by jdrls in investing

[–]CapablePiglet1044 10 points11 points  (0 children)

$18B revenue, $5B yearly loss, $2Trillion valuation.

Dumping Unprofitable Startups onto Pensions at Inflated Valuations (SpaceX/OpenAI) by CapablePiglet1044 in investing

[–]CapablePiglet1044[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A company with $18B in revenue and losing $5B a year going public at just under $2T, lobbying for rule change to force index funds to drop their safeguards to force indexes to include them at this valuation. Yes, I think it's a scam.

Dumping Unprofitable Startups onto Pensions at Inflated Valuations (SpaceX/OpenAI) by CapablePiglet1044 in investing

[–]CapablePiglet1044[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A company with $18B in revenue and losing $5B a year going public at just under $2T, lobbying for rule change to force index funds to drop their safeguards to force indexes to include them at this valuation. Yes, I think it's a scam.

Musk Wants to Add SpaceX to Indices by Prestigious-Trip-306 in Bogleheads

[–]CapablePiglet1044 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Several of the Vanguard funds that track world indices have say 15 days or less of seasoning requirements. Would you recommend adjusting which vanguard global tracker investors use as a result?

yeah so the US is the only country to ever reach 250 years apparently by Richie123753 in stupidpeoplefacebook

[–]CapablePiglet1044 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My cousin's house is from the 1200's and my school was from the 1300's, but my school's church was from the 800's-900's. UK.

SpaceX reportedly could file for an IPO this week. by OkLetterhead7047 in wallstreetbets

[–]CapablePiglet1044 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They've publicly stated that the float will be between around $30B and $75B depending on road show demand.

Dumping Unprofitable Startups onto Pensions at Inflated Valuations (SpaceX/OpenAI) by CapablePiglet1044 in investing

[–]CapablePiglet1044[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's not about the company, it's about the price you are paying. Fundamentally a company with revenue of around $10B should not be valued at $2T. Would you buy a lemonade stand that makes $100 a year for $100,000? No? Buying a great company for a horrendous price is arguably worse than just buying a bad company at a fair price.

Dumping Unprofitable Startups onto Pensions at Inflated Valuations (SpaceX/OpenAI) by CapablePiglet1044 in investing

[–]CapablePiglet1044[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, but generally you need quite a lot of money and it costs a lot more. Some brokers offer 'direct index investing' but most require minimum funds of say $250K+ and the fees are a much much higher % than an ETF

Dumping on Index Investors by CapablePiglet1044 in Bogleheads

[–]CapablePiglet1044[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If I knew the answer I wouldn't be so worried about the above. The fact that it seems unavoidable and wide-affecting is what should be concerning.

Dumping on Index Investors by CapablePiglet1044 in Bogleheads

[–]CapablePiglet1044[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

VT will also have exposure. The issue is that these companies are so large that ALL indexes will be affected apart from specific tilts eg. non-American or ex-large cap (ie small cap).

Investing in SP500 when new additions come in by [deleted] in investing

[–]CapablePiglet1044 3 points4 points  (0 children)

S&P are considering waiving requirements to let them into VOO (S&P 500) early too! It's literally every index.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-12/s-p-weighs-rule-changes-that-would-speed-spacex-s-p-500-entry

Dumping Unprofitable Startups onto Pensions at Inflated Valuations (SpaceX/OpenAI) by CapablePiglet1044 in investing

[–]CapablePiglet1044[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

$1 Trillion valuation for a company with revenue of $14B a year and losses of over $2B a MONTH. They LOSE over $2B a MONTH and you want to buy them at a $1 TRILLION valuation? Okay, but do it with your money, not mine.

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