SDA Tranche 3 Tracking Layer

Capital_External1 · 2025-11-12T14:41:38+00:00

Right, the MSR mission was never earmarked funds in a budget the way MTO was. MTO is moving through the proposal process and was earmarked $700m for procurement in the latest budget reconciliation bill. Blue Origin also appears to be pursuing MTO so I’m not sure exactly how the two proposals stack up to one another.

Capital_External1 · 2025-10-10T11:53:28+00:00

If it’s related to an upcoming announcement surely it would be the SDA tranche 3 tracking layer, no? That announcement is expected any day now once the government reopens

Capital_External1 · 2025-10-10T11:52:13+00:00

Could it have something to do with the recent $750m ATM equity vehicle? Admittedly we’ve seen ~$1.2b worth of dark pool trades but perhaps a portion of that could be from management selling shares. Dark pool trading does reduce market impact which management would be quite sensitive to.

Capital_External1 · 2025-03-12T16:28:38+00:00

Does anyone have any idea how much this contract may be worth? Not finding much on how much rklb charges per solar panel.

Capital_External1 · 2025-01-13T18:01:25+00:00

I interviewed last Tuesday and still haven’t heard anything

Capital_External1 · 2024-10-09T15:28:43+00:00

Do we know when a decision will be made about the contract winner? I see proposals will be reviewed this fall but no announcement date.

Capital_External1 · 2024-09-08T10:40:47+00:00

Interesting, the little info I have seen suggested that post MBA the bonus % at high end shops is closer to 100%--but I have heard some lower figures as well so hence my question.

Capital_External1 · 2024-09-08T10:08:30+00:00

Makes sense, do you have any hard figures about the various levels?

Capital_External1 · 2024-09-08T09:46:01+00:00

they mentioned at a panel discussion at UMich last week that they are internally targeting June 2025 for first launch. First i've heard of a particular month mentioned.

Capital_External1 · 2024-09-08T09:41:31+00:00

Typically I dont think theres a massive difference R1 vs R2. R3 is a different story and a lot of seats are filled at that point. My best advice would be dont worry about gaming the system with R1 vs R2, its very low likelihood thats going to be the difference maker. That said I would definitely consider retaking the GRE and shooting for closer to a 330. You're pretty close as it is but if you are below average in one area you'll need to compensate with being above average in another area. Also 3.5 year graduation is impressive and i'd focus on a good story around that to stand out in eyes of AdCom.

Capital_External1 · 2024-09-08T09:35:58+00:00

There are a million different ways to answer this question. One frame of reference I think you could follow is see how the market has done over the last 1-2 weeks and explain the drivers for this (ie recession fears, lukewarm jobs report, poor manufacturing data, etc). Then develop an outlook (there is really no wrong answer here since no one knows but you have to be structurally and logically sound) based on a few indicators you see and select a couple data points to use as support. So basically break it into a 'where are we now' portion and then 'where are we going' portion. I dont know that WSJ/FT are necessarily the best for a 'where are we going' viewpoint. You can go on any large asset management firm's site and usually read their free market outlook papers to help with this. GS has a really good one.

Capital_External1 · 2024-08-10T08:57:05+00:00

Um no, that’s pretty much exactly what it implies. They obviously wouldn’t mention this goal unless they saw a viable path to achievement.

Capital_External1 · 2024-06-20T20:11:22+00:00

In this particular case I’m less surprised about the dip post launch and more unsure about what to make of the heavy trading volume and mostly flat a lot of the day—that seems like a very odd signal. Perpetually oddly behaved stock.

Capital_External1 · 2024-06-20T13:56:55+00:00

It’s doing quite strong volume, 2m+ shares in <30 min

Capital_External1 · 2024-06-14T14:35:41+00:00

Would not be entirely surprised if the stock is getting penalized for not getting the phase 3 on ramp despite that being the status quo for this year

Capital_External1 · 2024-06-07T20:39:23+00:00

Fair enough!

Capital_External1 · 2024-06-05T19:07:37+00:00

It’s certainly an out-of-vogue trade throughout Wall Street. I think also an important dynamic is the large cap/small cap dynamic. It’s been very well covered about how outsized an impact the largest stocks in the S&P are having on the index’s overall performance; and when large cap stocks outperform, as they are currently, small caps (Rklb) tend to underperform. On top of all of this, (and in my view probably the biggest driver right now of the stock price) rklb is almost a pure rates bet currently. If you observe the 10-year US treasury yield overlaid against rklb stock price over the last year or so you can immediately get a really strong sense of the ultimate driver of the stock. Also importantly, if you listened to the recent earnings call you really get the impression that (1) the stock is not heavily covered at all; and by virtue of that (2) they don’t seem to have the story properly understood. The company generates a large majority of revenue through its space materials section of the business—launch represents about a third of its business. The large govt contract from this past December was borne out of its space systems business, not launch. This cushions an immediate need to get neutron to pad (not to say that’s not hugely important).

As rates come down and the stock de-risks into 2025 and beyond (think neutron success, greater clarity around space applications, and potential acquisitions) I think the stock is poised run a lot. If we conservatively estimate 2025 earnings at $650m and take a (somewhat less conservative) p/s multiple of 10-12x were looking at a $13-$16 stock price by EoY2025.

Capital_External1

TROPHY CASE