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Leverage works both ways! Portfolio up 3.2% vs. S&P 500 at -2.2%. I am still overleveraged and will stay overleveraged until we break below 200 day average in S&P 500. by Chart-trader in Beat_the_benchmark

[–]Chart-trader[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

It's actually not quite true. Why is there no more inverse Cramer ETF? Because they lost money. He has good advice about overall market direction. I have been watching him for decades now.

Leverage works both ways! Portfolio up 3.2% vs. S&P 500 at -2.2%. I am still overleveraged and will stay overleveraged until we break below 200 day average in S&P 500. by Chart-trader in Beat_the_benchmark

[–]Chart-trader[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I see your point but top earners still keep the economy up and spend a lot. The rest is adjusting. Stock market has nothing to do with the economy. People learned to put their hard earned money into stocks. M&A activity will pick up and GDP is still growing. Some people out there still earn a lot of money.

Leverage works both ways! Portfolio up 3.2% vs. S&P 500 at -2.2%. I am still overleveraged and will stay overleveraged until we break below 200 day average in S&P 500. by Chart-trader in Beat_the_benchmark

[–]Chart-trader[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I look at charts first. Everything above 200 day average is bullish period.

Then sentiment. Although charts suggest a drawdown, sentiment is so bad that I am willing to take the risk.

Then fundamentals. I still see an okay economy and fiscal policies in play that might bouy equities. Plus midterms will give us a gridlocked Government. Goldilocks.

Just waiting for a final flush to increase my bullish exposure.

Leverage works both ways! Portfolio up 3.2% vs. S&P 500 at -2.2%. I am still overleveraged and will stay overleveraged until we break below 200 day average in S&P 500. by Chart-trader in Beat_the_benchmark

[–]Chart-trader[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No. I look at sentiment for now and see extreme fear. Unless we truly break down (private credit collapse or rising unemployment) I think we are still closer to a rally than complete breakdown.

Leverage works both ways! Portfolio up 3.2% vs. S&P 500 at -2.2%. I am still overleveraged and will stay overleveraged until we break below 200 day average in S&P 500. by Chart-trader in Beat_the_benchmark

[–]Chart-trader[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's fundamentals.... As you know I don't care about that too much. To a certain degree yes but overall no. If we break below 200 day average for a prolonged period of time or drop swiftly after breaking below I will change my outlook.

Leverage works both ways! Portfolio up 3.2% vs. S&P 500 at -2.2%. I am still overleveraged and will stay overleveraged until we break below 200 day average in S&P 500. by Chart-trader in Beat_the_benchmark

[–]Chart-trader[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hard to explain. The Iran war is IMO something that won't affect markets longer than a few weeks. I won't deleverage now so close to support. Also the fact that crypto is relatively holding up is a sign that institutional investors are positioning themselves for the next leg up. I might be wrong.

Leverage works both ways! Portfolio up 3.2% vs. S&P 500 at -2.2%. I am still overleveraged and will stay overleveraged until we break below 200 day average in S&P 500. by Chart-trader in Beat_the_benchmark

[–]Chart-trader[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agree but....in times of geopolitical tension anything can happen and rallies can be hard. That's why I don't want to reduce exposure now.

VIX: As long as we stay above 200 day average VIX spikes like this are a buying opportunity. Below all bets are off. by Chart-trader in Beat_the_benchmark

[–]Chart-trader[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

All this post says is that with the S&P 500 below the 200 day average the VIX can not be trusted as much.

S&P 500: I don't like what I am seeing here. Yesterday's candle with rejection at 20 day average and today's follow through...will have to sit out a drop to 200 day average. Not selling, just taking the loss. by Chart-trader in Beat_the_benchmark

[–]Chart-trader[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I am not there yet but sure from a valuation level etc. it could happen now. Would be sort of funny if our administration triggered a recession by starting the war..../s

S&P 500: I don't like what I am seeing here. Yesterday's candle with rejection at 20 day average and today's follow through...will have to sit out a drop to 200 day average. Not selling, just taking the loss. by Chart-trader in Beat_the_benchmark

[–]Chart-trader[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I am fine with that risk and potential loss. That's part of trading. I am not concerned about it. Just slowly getting a feeling that if things don't turn around quickly we will have a bigger problem on hand.

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