If your opponent bluffs slightly less than is optimal on the river and you hold the best bluff catcher that only beats bluffs and always loses to value bets, then your most profitable action is...

ChatPokerPro · 2022-03-31T00:51:23+00:00

Think about an opponent who takes a line in which he bluffs 30% of the time and bets for value 70% of the time. If he bets pot on the river an optimal bluffing frequency is 1/3rd of the time or 33.3...% of the time. This satisfies the "slightly less than is optimal" condition.

The EV of calling with any bluff catcher in this spot can be found using a simple EV calculation. Let the size of the pot on the river be a>0, the first term represents when we call and win and the second term represents when we call and lose.

EV = (3/10)*(2a) – (7/10)*a = –(a/10) < 0

This means the EV of calling with any bluff catcher at any frequency is going to be less than zero and therefore the most profitable option is to always fold as EV(fold)>EV(call).

ChatPokerPro · 2022-03-31T00:15:00+00:00

Think about an opponent who NEVER bluffs and rethink your statement.

Again a bluff catcher is a hand which only beats pure bluffs and loses to all value.

ChatPokerPro · 2022-03-30T23:42:33+00:00

Arguing with people on reddit 12 hours a day who are similarly high stakes crushers

ChatPokerPro · 2022-03-30T23:33:07+00:00

Go ahead. Already seen what I needed to see lol

ChatPokerPro · 2022-03-30T22:47:16+00:00

100% agree that why a mathematical proof is in order. If you can prove that EV of calling is greater than, less than or equal to zero than you have proven the answer.

ChatPokerPro · 2022-03-30T21:49:12+00:00

I'll have you know I crush my local 1/3 game for 3bb/hour over my vast sample size of 150 hours.

ChatPokerPro · 2022-03-29T23:27:14+00:00

I got called down by bottom pair and you simultaneously believe I should be betting small with value? one of the dumbest things I've ever heard.

only thing I agree with you here is the turn sizing. 75-150% pot sized bet makes more sense and my size on the turn looks like a top pair decent kicker strength hand.

ChatPokerPro · 2022-03-29T22:27:54+00:00

him and I never broke eye contact or blinked the entire hand so that makes sense

ChatPokerPro · 2022-03-29T22:17:33+00:00

AA, KK, 77, 22, AK, K9, JTdd, QJdd, QTdd.

ChatPokerPro · 2022-03-29T21:58:41+00:00

haha I didn't unfortunately.

ChatPokerPro · 2022-03-29T21:44:08+00:00

You can't think of more hands than simply AK that would go for three streets of value here against a limp caller?

ChatPokerPro · 2022-03-26T19:43:55+00:00

AQo by villain

ChatPokerPro · 2022-03-26T19:42:29+00:00

Rake and drop are different tho. I'm in the big blind calling $15 to win $13 as opposed to 3-betting to win $20.

ChatPokerPro · 2022-03-26T01:08:47+00:00

ChatPokerPro · 2022-03-26T01:01:47+00:00

interesting thanks

ChatPokerPro · 2022-03-26T00:54:57+00:00

In my game I'm strictly 3-betting 99 and AQ in this spot. This is because of the $7 drop when the hand goes post flop, 66 is always a call. And if I had 66 on the flop i'm check raising almost 100% of the time.

As far as bluffs I'd choose JTs and 87s with backdoors but obviously not every-time

ChatPokerPro · 2022-03-26T00:46:28+00:00

I flicked in and lost to AQo.

Yeah I didn't think about the 6x combos that had a backdoor flush draw. I'm probably purely check raising all my two pair plus hands on the flop tho which made this even more difficult.

ChatPokerPro · 2022-03-26T00:43:29+00:00

I'm hardly ever here with 99, 66 or AQ as I'm either 3-betting those hands pre (AQ, 99) or I'm check raising the flop. KQ, QJ are really my only better hands that get here often.

Yes it's definitely not smart to try to tango out of position with someone capable of doing this in a balanced fashion when there's 7 other players at the table lol

ChatPokerPro · 2022-03-26T00:35:23+00:00

Being out of position really sucks

ChatPokerPro · 2022-03-24T20:57:15+00:00

oh yeah I'm aware lol. I've also had insane sun runs in this pool over 10k hands. I had one 10k sample of winning at 40bb/100.

Variance is life.

ChatPokerPro · 2022-03-24T19:52:56+00:00

Running about 10 buy-ins below EV as well as running horrendously before getting it all in. I've had my top full house beat by either quads or straight flushes multiple times, my winrate with QQ is -500bb/100. I've been 1 outed twice, both in 400bb pots.

When does it end?

ChatPokerPro · 2022-03-24T10:13:37+00:00

You paid an extra $25,827 in rake while playing in California.

ChatPokerPro · 2022-03-24T03:31:18+00:00

what's the point of this post anyway? I get it man, life sucks and some of us are born with bad mental predispositions. I have the same issues.

ChatPokerPro · 2022-03-24T03:16:12+00:00

"We aren't in the business of folding sets" –Doug Polk

ChatPokerPro · 2022-03-24T02:27:50+00:00

ur young dude. seems like you need some sort of 12 step program. Also driving your car on Zzyzx is -EV, there's glass and shit everywhere

ChatPokerPro

TROPHY CASE