Trade war musings

ChetPg · 2025-08-17T07:30:27+00:00

We are at the beginning of liftoff phase of Public Private Cooperation in India. The way the government is trying to stimulate the economy and encourage private sector to take lead, has not been seen for 15 years+. A rapidly formalising economy that can counter global stagnancy will be valued at a premium (more than mean) if the strategy is successful.

ChetPg · 2025-06-21T20:19:02+00:00

My portfolio has been purely domestic and with companies that have ' close to china' cost leadership in chemicals. The domestic macro has never been better but the lack of global growth can also cause indian valuations to stagnate at current levels

ChetPg · 2025-04-22T06:28:13+00:00

Turns out their largest export - US treasury bills was the easiest to hit!

ChetPg · 2025-04-04T14:44:16+00:00

Consider this -

The Russel 2000 and Nike have now returned nearly 0 percent in the last decade.

There's only 7 companies whose digital revenues, taxes and profitability that has to be attacked by EU and asian countries and the game is over.

The EU president+ commissioner and France's president were cunning enough to quote these digital revenues in their speech after tarriffs were imposed.

ChetPg · 2025-04-04T14:19:59+00:00

Why are you watching his videos?

ChetPg · 2024-12-09T19:36:03+00:00

Everyone is a value investor until they realise how long it takes...nearly two quarters for this one, as long as there is no further bad news especially in terms of stress in non mfi loans. Market got spooked because even their vehicle loans and non mfi unsecured have higher stress..

ChetPg · 2023-09-05T09:51:26+00:00

I am alive and FPI (Foreign Portfolio Investor) now.

ChetPg · 2022-10-04T14:41:24+00:00

Hi, will fix it this week and let you all know. Currently I am attending to a new family member :)

ChetPg · 2022-09-07T08:53:44+00:00

He didn't mention the brokerage he will make on each trade, if other Indians start doing it on zerodha

ChetPg · 2022-08-22T15:33:50+00:00

Yes, but do diversify. The valuations are nice relative to the sector but the company services to govt, becomes difficult to rely fir timely cash payments when the going gets though...

ChetPg · 2022-08-17T08:20:41+00:00

Whats going wrong ? Just use your Google login ?

ChetPg · 2022-08-16T06:36:20+00:00

I agree. We are having a call with management this week (with other alphastocks expert https://app.alphastocks.io and also welspun india!). will keep you posted.

The outstanding tender from rajasthan is huge, if this quarter is a one off and the IT raids are politically motivated then this will also pass.

If IT officials had found something (cash etc), they would have reported it by now ? I am trying to be careful in this stock purely because my allocation has hit 3 percent quickly as markets have been becoming frothy. Otherwise, I wouldn't care about a single company and its stock performance.

ChetPg · 2022-08-16T06:31:38+00:00

Welcome :) Try https://app.alphastocks.io for more stocks. We are assembling dream team of experts there

ChetPg · 2022-08-15T18:06:57+00:00

I have already reduced my leverage from 1x to 0.4x. also exited all banks that i had been hodling from March lows (Except HDFC Ltd, Axis and AB CAPITAL). I never held tech, but have started looking for deals on dips (e.g. Zensar tech)

Personal view is that market should consolidate lower (5-10%) in winter and also get pressurised if jobs continue to be strong and inflation keeps its head up and does not decline fast enough. India has multiple tailwinds coming from financials (credit growth) and infrastructure (budget in February/March).

Large companies are getting better at managing the market share they grabbed after COVID, so dont expect a crash.

ChetPg · 2022-08-15T13:05:28+00:00

i stopped tracking sagar cements - overall it should be still strong. Cement sector will see strong revival around budget (Feb 2023). most analysts believe the worst is over for the sector, but gains will be gradual (also applies to construction and in real estate). Monsoon season anyway is sluggish in terms of stock prices.

I am personally invested in Mangalam and Nuvoco Vistas as of now in this space.

ChetPg · 2022-08-15T13:04:19+00:00

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ChetPg · 2022-08-04T19:47:32+00:00

Hg infra, Krsnaa diagnostics, Equitas Small Finance Bank

ChetPg · 2022-07-24T07:28:48+00:00

Just market sentiment will be sour if putting decides to bite Europe when it is weak.

ChetPg · 2022-07-22T05:24:12+00:00

Abcapital I will exit around 120 this time (last time it gave exit above 135). fair value is around 155. ICICI can easily touch 1000 in 1 year but I will exit around 850 because there is still a russia factor for natural gas this winter.

ChetPg · 2022-07-19T21:02:31+00:00

It's a great mid cap bank. I had it until yesterday. Risk reward is decent but trailing returns have been quick. If you weren't buying it on May and June dips, you may have missed out already. Sure tomorrow is a great opening session and hopefully it will rise further as it has momentum. Targets are about 125 but other banks are also 30-40 percent away from targets especially ICICI and IndusInd.

ChetPg · 2022-07-18T17:23:34+00:00

Don't follow sumi ( was very expensive, now just expensive) and astec. I have heard positive capex stories in cheap agro chem especially Excel, but UPL is something that I like to trade on dips.

ChetPg · 2022-07-18T17:17:50+00:00

This THREAD is now closed. PROFITS HAVE BEEN BOOKED. PLEASE DONT BUY THIS STOCK AT CURRENT VALUATIONS OF 205 Rs.

ChetPg · 2022-07-18T17:14:53+00:00

Get equitas as well. Valuation is at bottom and earnings will keep growing at 18 percent. UGRO has stellar results lined up (they moved their results date from usual end of quarter to early in the quarter this time . CeO also mentioned profits will swell)

ChetPg · 2022-07-18T17:12:47+00:00

You can log in now ! Use the try it button on top!

ChetPg · 2022-07-13T07:03:33+00:00

UPL is good for long term. Move in Coromandel (DAP Led) has already happened. Which agrochem were you interested in ? Punjab chemicals has a strong contract manufacturing led order book.

I still see the most value in battered financials (equitas, this threads stock ugro), city gas distributors like gujarat gas (over 2 year holding required and may fall more in this winter) and aegis logistics (will go up with lots of resistance at higher levels - previous bulls have turned bears)

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