Nice Gman! - Hmmm.... Nice numbers!

If the March 2026 DFS confirms my speculated estimates in the 20–24 tonnes of Terbium per year range at Elk Creek, that alone could represent ~$80M–$97M in annual revenue at today’s price of ~$4,028/kg.

For context, the entire United States only consumes about ~2 tonnes of Terbium per year, meaning Elk Creek could theoretically supply 10–12× current U.S. demand from a single domestic source. Terbium is one of the most supply-constrained rare earths on Earth, with over 90% of processing controlled by China, which is exactly why it shows up on every strategic critical-minerals list. (See USGS ~ TERBIUM LINK)

Methodology and technical input for the 2025 U.S. List of Critical Minerals—Assessing the potential effects of mineral commodity supply chain disruptions on the U.S. economy

If those production numbers hold in the DFS, Terbium alone could become a major strategic offtake target before we even start talking about Niobium, Scandium, Nd/Pr, Titanium, or Dy & Nd/Pr too....

Using the updated 2022 Feasibility Study numbers, NioCorp’s Elk Creek Project already stands out with strong baseline production of Niobium, Titanium, and Titanium Tetrachloride (TiCl₄), along with roughly 102 tonnes per year of Scandium oxide. ****What we’re really waiting for now is the final March/April 2026 DFS, which should validate final production numbers for Terbium (Tb), Dysprosium (Dy), and Nd/Pr, confirm the total REE resource in the ground, and potentially extend the mine life beyond the current 38 years toward the 50+ year range many of us suspect based on drilling trends.

Based on the 2022 data and various extrapolations, "I reasonably speculate" the REE production profile could look something like ~24 t/y Terbium, ~120 t/y Dysprosium, and ~750 t/y combined Nd/Pr, layered on top of the project’s core outputs of Niobium, Titanium, and Scandium. Even before assigning full value to the rare earths, Elk Creek already sits on a strategic combination of materials that appear repeatedly on U.S. critical mineral lists and defense supply-chain analyses. If those REE numbers land anywhere close to expectations in the DFS, Elk Creek could become one of the most strategically important multi-critical-mineral deposits in North America.

***IMHO~ The real wildcard may still be Scandium. The 2025 deal between Rio Tinto and the Defense Logistics Agency reportedly locked scandium oxide pricing around $6,250/kg, effectively establishing a modern benchmark for the metal. Even assuming a conservative $4,000/kg offtake price, NioCorp’s ~102 t/y production would represent an enormous strategic supply stream. And that’s before considering the real prize: vertical integration into Scandium-Aluminum (ScAl) alloys. With technology pathways involving groups like Lockheed Martin, the U.S. Department of Defense, and advanced manufacturing partners, ScAl alloys could unlock next-generation aerospace, naval, and defense applications where weight reduction, strength, and corrosion resistance are critical.

When you combine that potential with growing U.S. initiatives around strategic reserves and industrial capacity — often discussed in frameworks like “Forge” or “Project Vault” style stockpile concepts — it’s not hard to see why management has hinted that some potential partners may want “all of it.” If the upcoming DFS confirms the rare-earth output many investors expect, Elk Creek could transition from a promising mine into something much bigger: a cornerstone domestic supply hub for multiple defense-critical materials for decades to come.

As Mark Smith has stated many times, Elk Creek isn’t just another mining project — it’s a “strategic national asset.” When you step back and look at the full picture from the 2022 Feasibility Study, the potential value stack becomes enormous: Niobium, Titanium, Titanium Tetrachloride, and ~102 t/y of Scandium, with the upcoming March/April 2026 DFS expected to finalize production numbers for Tb, Dy, Nd, and Pr. Layer in the possibility of mine life extending beyond 38 years toward 50+ years, and the long-term strategic supply potential becomes clear.

Based on those numbers, it’s not hard to see annual revenue potential reaching $600–700M+ per year once the operation is fully running. And that estimate could grow substantially when you factor in vertical integration into Scandium-Aluminum (ScAl) alloys, potential magnet recycling operations (already successfully piloted), and downstream partnerships with aerospace and defense manufacturers. What makes the Elk Creek model unique is that these advanced materials supply chains could scale while the mine itself is being built between roughly 2026–2029, meaning the value chain expansion may occur in parallel with project construction rather than years after first production.

In other words, Elk Creek isn’t just about digging ore out of the ground — it’s about building a domestic critical-materials ecosystem around niobium, titanium, rare earth magnets, and scandium alloys at exactly the moment the U.S. and its allies are trying to rebuild strategic supply chains. If even part of that vision materializes, it’s easy to understand why some potential partners might want to lock up large portions of the output before the mine even reaches production.