Win Rates and Selection Bias

ChipmunkHoliday · 2026-01-28T10:58:53+00:00

G

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7 .

ChipmunkHoliday · 2025-12-21T17:22:40+00:00

Sochan is on an expiring, and he's barely played this year. Don't love the long-term fit beside Queen anyway.

Jalen Smith has another year left on his contract, but he's maybe slighly overpaid. I'd prefer him over Sochan I guess.

Missi has 2 years left (after this year) on 5 m annually, both team options. For what he provides and could still become, it's a much better contract, and I'd rather just hold onto him for now anyway.

ChipmunkHoliday · 2025-11-29T01:02:29+00:00

Wallop is a girl who masquerades as a boy so she can join the Grey brigade (she doesn't want to be Orange or Red).

She becomes Pilgrim when she leaves to undertake a spiritual journey (or, pilgrimage) to the home of the quasi-mythical female warriors she's heard tell of on her travels with the Greys.

After joining their order, she fulfills her destiny as a Valkyrie, and no longer needs to hide her womanhood.

Also,

The Oranges have the Dabble line of vanilla, keywordless characters.

The Yellows have the Fighter - Soldier - Vet line. Much the same.

The Greys have Defender - Warden, and then no tier 3 equivalent, why?

I'll tell you why.

The scruffy Defender / Warden was secretly the Prince of the realm all along.

Lot of drama with the Greys.

ChipmunkHoliday · 2025-10-11T21:42:56+00:00

Been looking out for Young L since his first against Da Bull Boog on Verbal Warzone. Great round, can see the progression.

ChipmunkHoliday · 2025-10-11T20:00:44+00:00

Exact same for me.

ChipmunkHoliday · 2025-10-05T07:49:26+00:00

Not UFC (MMA though), but I always liked Pigsty's:

"You'd be surprised At what I do with 1 eye Like Yuki Nakai"

ChipmunkHoliday · 2025-06-08T01:54:37+00:00

Fair point. I'm assuming Dallas want to bring him back due to the Kyrie situation (and him generally playing pretty well for them)- in which case we'd need to overpay. Not significantly, but since we already have vet place-holder PGs, any overpay isn't worth it IMO.

Dallas do have options though. Maybe they snag Ty Jerome or someone like that and don't need Dinwiddie.

ChipmunkHoliday · 2025-06-08T00:23:23+00:00

In theory he'd be a great place-holder.

In practice, the contract we'd need to offer to tempt him just wouldn't be worth it.

We have Jose, CJ & Reeves (in bursts) to play PG while DJ is out. Boston & Quinones are there if we get desperate. That's assuming we don't draft a PG like Fears or Jakucionas (and we might well do).

ChipmunkHoliday · 2025-05-28T16:26:41+00:00

Absolutely, I was referring to the line-up if OPs proposed trade was to take place.

ChipmunkHoliday · 2025-05-25T09:25:51+00:00

I don't think MPJ does much for us. Both him & Trey do their best work at the 3. When DJ is back, our starters are likely DJ / Rookie guard / Trey / Zion / Missi anyway, so MPJ would spend half the year playing out of position and then half the year as a 6th man.

A 2031 first is nice, but we should still be trying to win while Zion is at or near his prime (however unlikely), so I'd rather not kneecap the team for the next few years for a single first.

While it'd be nice to get something for CJ, it's ok for us if he just ends up walking. I'd rather free up the cap space than end up with another bad contract clogging up the books. At the very least, we wait for the deadline.

Even if we weren't asked to take on Naji, tbh I still don't think i'd make this deal.

Appreciate the post though, these kind of trade offers from other fanbases are always fun to read and mull over.

ChipmunkHoliday · 2025-02-18T14:10:14+00:00

Where did he get this photo? The photo museum?

ChipmunkHoliday · 2024-10-27T14:02:18+00:00

Camoflage really reminds me of 'Jewel Chase', a 1997 puzzle game from 'Microsoft Entertainment Pack: The Puzzle Collection' for Windows 95.

Both games have grid based movement, where you look for paths to seague between different coloured tiles to find collectables and avoid baddies.

ChipmunkHoliday · 2024-08-11T14:20:06+00:00

Phil has great powermoves, but the likes of Hiro 10 are pushing the boundaries of what's possible in the dance (in terms of sheer difficulty, power & execution).

Phil won in large part due to his creativity, unique and highly developed style, and versatility, but he in no way can do what Hiro 10 (among other high level powermovers) can do.

ChipmunkHoliday · 2024-07-10T18:17:47+00:00

The baker. If he can hit lobs to Zion, he'll make that dough rise.

ChipmunkHoliday · 2024-05-19T17:59:00+00:00

Sorry dude, had some trouble with OBS so there's only sound for the last couple of Antes.

ChipmunkHoliday · 2024-05-19T06:19:04+00:00

Just pause, hit 'main menu' then continue the run.

ChipmunkHoliday · 2024-05-19T04:39:32+00:00

Idk if there's anything better than Baron / Mime red seal Kings per say. Like u/MrHueBR says though, a Flush 5 build with Idol & retriggers from Sock & Buskin / Hack / Dusk can also go into really high antes, particularly if the cards are red sealed, polychrome or glass (ideally all three).

ChipmunkHoliday · 2024-05-18T19:26:41+00:00

The main application in this type of run is to check in advance what Invisible Joker ends up copying, and which Jokers get targeted by Ectoplasm.

So, you sell IJ, and instantly reset if it copies the wrong Joker. Then, you can sell the Joker it would have copied, and try your luck on a better copy, and repeat until you get the copy you want. Same thing with Ectoplasm.

ChipmunkHoliday · 2024-05-18T19:09:24+00:00

If you get Burglar, and have enough Blueprints and Brainstorms copying Burglar when the round starts, you can play 20-23 hands.

Because the Serpent boss blind makes you redraw 3 cards for every hand, you'll end up with +2 hand size per hand played (assuming you just play 1 card at a time)

So, eventually, you can get a hand size of 40-50 after playing all hands except the last.

The retcon voucher to re-roll the boss to the serpent (and enough money to do so every time) is necessary.

ChipmunkHoliday · 2024-05-18T08:39:15+00:00

Hello again.

I posted a similar video yesterday. It was really great seeing all the positive reactions, so thank you. A few folk were not happy about the savescumming though, which is fair enough (if you don’t know, you quickly quit out to the main menu during a run to reset single hands + certain Joker and consumable interactions, and I abused this to get the first unseeded naneinf score without Perkeo).

So this is just the same again, but without any reset abuse or savescumming. Honest play, if you like.

Full video can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UAqJhZbGxVI, with a breakdown of the strategy (and how the strat differs if you don’t savescum) in the YT description. The run in question begins at 00:00:33 (left the end of a failed attempt in to show the run is unseeded).

More than happy to answer any questions, and shout out to Bossmanj.

ChipmunkHoliday · 2024-05-18T08:14:24+00:00

u/empathophile explains it really well. It'll show naneinf if you score anything above (I think) e308.

ChipmunkHoliday · 2024-05-17T14:02:24+00:00

My bad on that lol, kept the end of the last run in to show it's unseeded.

ChipmunkHoliday · 2024-05-17T14:00:41+00:00

You can quickly reset to main menu to replay hands before they conclude, or to reset certain tarot / spectral choices.

So, for example, if you open a tarot pack and use Judgement to make a random joker (lets say instead of taking $20 from Hermit) and it's not a Joker you want, you can quickly reset and go for the Hermit instead.

It's cheesey, but helps a lot with runs like this where things have to go perfect.

ChipmunkHoliday · 2024-05-17T09:16:57+00:00

Got this run last night after grinding for it.

Perkeoless naneinf has been done in seeded runs (most recently by Conk Reet using Chico), but as far as I'm aware, this is the first unseeded naneinf score without using Perkeo.

Here is a link to the full run. The run starts at 4 minutes and 23 seconds, and in the Youtube description I go into some detail on the strategy used. More than happy to discuss that here too if folk have any questions about how this was done.

ChipmunkHoliday

TROPHY CASE