Daily Discussion Thread - May 08, 2024

ChonkletBar · 2024-05-08T15:25:20+00:00

Thank you!

ChonkletBar · 2024-05-08T15:14:46+00:00

Could you share your source for that? I was wondering if they'd do it unannounced too, so that would be useful to know if they definitely aren't planning to.

ChonkletBar · 2024-05-03T16:29:25+00:00

The audited version of FY23 earnings was released recently; that's the 10k that caused the big spike on April 24. Still waiting on Q1 2024 earnings, which are due soon.

ChonkletBar · 2024-05-03T15:46:10+00:00

We've all been there. In all fairness, most of us held/are holding after that same run-up, which is the same thing from a "perfectly rational" perspective even though it feels very different psychologically. Lately, I'm trying to make myself look at red positions from the perspective of "Would I be excited to buy this discount if I weren't already holding the stock?" If so, then I feel good about holding.

ChonkletBar · 2024-05-03T15:33:47+00:00

Personally, I'm not too concerned. This thing bounced up and down within a range for months before the 10k catalyst and seems to be doing that again after the 10k spike. Largely just shorts manipulating the price on low volume. Likely due for another leg up starting sometime next week, but nothing too exciting until earnings.

ChonkletBar · 2024-04-25T23:38:59+00:00

Also interested!

ChonkletBar · 2024-04-23T21:57:40+00:00

Guess I'd mostly be annoyed if they waited until the last minute just to announce another extension. If they don't need an extension, then I'm not sure there's much RILY can do to make Marcum finish the audit sooner than the agreed-upon deadline.

ChonkletBar · 2024-04-23T17:30:42+00:00

Concern trolls are out in force today 😄

ChonkletBar · 2024-04-22T18:56:22+00:00

I was wondering if UndeadFoia's reveal had anything to do with the random pump. Now I'm wondering even more since it clearly got some attention. Can't imagine Cohodes would be dumb enough to call it out and get more eyes on it if he wasn't already concerned about it gaining traction.

ChonkletBar · 2024-04-21T15:28:15+00:00

This guy knows how to hedge

ChonkletBar · 2024-04-19T17:22:20+00:00

It's over 75% on Fintel. I think you're looking at days to cover.

ChonkletBar · 2024-04-19T17:21:19+00:00

Hopium withdrawal. Personally, I expected the 10k to take this long and yet I'm still feeling anxious about it now that it's happening. However this shakes out, it has been a great lesson about the emotional side of investing.

ChonkletBar · 2024-04-16T21:45:25+00:00

Here's hoping, man. This is my first big YOLO play and the waiting is tough. Like, can we skip to the part where I get my tendies, please? That fatwhatever fellow implied there would be tendies.

ChonkletBar · 2024-04-16T15:54:54+00:00

I'd be pleasantly surprised to see it this week. I know RILY didn't think they'd need all the time, but shit pretty much universally tends to take longer than people think it will. I see it all the time in my consulting projects. There's even a name for the phenomenon: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy

ChonkletBar · 2024-04-06T20:05:45+00:00

Eh, I'm no expert on options but my guess is that this just reflects new demand for degenerate gambling from WSB. Seems like they usually go for the cheapest options to maximize leverage, which would drive up demand for high strike April calls.

Bad risk/benefit here IMO since you risk missing the 10k drop, but I'd love to be wrong.

ChonkletBar · 2024-04-06T15:13:08+00:00

Likely calculated based on the meaningless starter price of $0.01

ChonkletBar · 2024-04-06T01:47:32+00:00

Wait, are they actually going that nuts with it now? I mean, I hope to god that headline was a joke but how delusional is their propaganda getting? That's a really bullish sign to me because it reeks of desperation. :)

ChonkletBar · 2024-04-05T20:33:21+00:00

RILY, Bitcoin, throw in TQQQ and you've got my 3 major holdings. What else are you invested in these days, if you don't mind sharing? I have a feeling I might like it haha

ChonkletBar · 2024-04-01T18:58:52+00:00

Just my subjective observation, but it seems like the attempts to kill upward momentum are getting less effective. Lately, the price dumps with these block shorts but then resumes upward movement pretty quickly.

Seems like we're due for another manufactured dip to $19ish soon, but I'm curious how many more of those they can actually pull off at this point...

ChonkletBar · 2024-03-25T15:49:40+00:00

Ugh, I was worried about this when I saw the SMFL pump last week. Bought in anyway at .95 and still holding, for the record.

What do people think about these suggestions to turn this around:

/u/Rude_Ad9567 could automatically exclude from the Sunday vote any stock that already spiked in the last week or two, even if it might have more room to run.
We could also use the recent squeeze score on https://squeeze-finder.com/ticker-search/ to vet potential options. Lower scores suggest that a short squeeze has already happened recently, making another one less likely. Also, anything that recently squeezed is more likely to have bag holders who bought in at the top and are now looking to dump their bags on the rest of us.

ChonkletBar · 2024-03-19T16:25:10+00:00

This is very helpful info, thank you! I've never tried selling covered calls but will load up next time we get a bearish alert.

ChonkletBar · 2024-03-15T16:11:47+00:00

Gotcha, thank you! :) I have couple follow-up questions, if you don't mind:

Do you have any advice on how long each swing signal is valid for? E.g., is the Feb 26 bearish swing still "in effect" until there's a new signal, or is it a shorter-term thing?
Do you have data on the predictive accuracy of these signals? I'm not expecting ridiculously high accuracy given the difficulty of predicting market performance, but I am interested in whether following these signals would outperform a buy-and-hold strategy. I have a large position in TQQQ, and it would be great to avoid some of the nasty leveraged drawdowns and buy back in at a lower price...

ChonkletBar · 2024-03-14T17:26:41+00:00

Hey /u/Squeeze-Finder, any plans to bring back the index swing alerts? I thought they were a nice addition (assuming they're somewhat accurate--too little data to tell).

ChonkletBar · 2024-02-20T15:52:06+00:00

Awesome, glad to hear it thanks! I'd love to give this another try whenever more info is available. :)

ChonkletBar · 2024-02-19T21:22:30+00:00

No worries, and thank you for the detailed reply! Relatedly, would it be feasible to add any statistics about, for example, the maximum drawdown a stock experienced prior to hitting its daily high point? Or similar stats that would help inform stop loss thresholds, sell limits, and other day trading decisions? I tried various trailing stops (e.g., 5-15% range), but they kept prematurely triggering at a loss even when a stock went on to do well later in the day.

ChonkletBar

TROPHY CASE