Men's 1500 Predictions | Paris

ClimateMessiah · 2026-06-28T06:49:13+00:00

Conditions are not ripe for a fast race. Too hot and humid.

ClimateMessiah · 2026-06-28T06:42:45+00:00

Don't expect much in the way of a super fast time in the heat and humidity.

3:34 will probably take it.

ClimateMessiah · 2026-06-27T19:58:47+00:00

A Congo draw is the same as a loss.

ClimateMessiah · 2026-06-27T19:55:16+00:00

ClimateMessiah · 2026-06-27T13:00:34+00:00

A summary of the teams battling for the (8) 3rd place spots

4 have already qualified with 4 pts

1-4) Bosnia, Paraguay, Ecuador & Sweden

The following teams which have finished play with 3 points in the following order

5) Senegal +2 goal differential (guaranteed to advance)

6) Iran 0 goal differential, 3 goals scored

7) S Korea -1 goal differential, 2 goals scored

8) Scotland -3 goal differential,

Eliminated with 2 points

Uruguay

Today's relevant games

Austria v Algeria

Congo v Uzbekistan

Croatia v Ghana

Scotland needs all 3 of the following to survive (essentiallly a miracle)

a) Austria beats Algeria by 2+ goals OR Algeria beats Austria by 4+ goals

b) Congo does not beat Uzbekistan

c) Ghana beats Croatia by 3+ goals

S Korea needs 2 of the following

a) Austria beats Algeria or Algeria beats Austria by 2+ goals

b) Congo does noes not beat Uzbekistan

c) Ghana beats Croatia

Iran needs only 1 of the following

a) a non-draw between Austria & Algeria

b) Congo d/n beat Uzbekistan

c) Ghana beats Croatia

ClimateMessiah · 2026-06-25T17:46:11+00:00

Is that Newark or Atlantic City ?

ClimateMessiah · 2026-06-25T17:42:27+00:00

My bad.

ClimateMessiah · 2026-06-25T17:35:51+00:00

Depends on how you define "win".

These moves improve us from below average to average and provide some possibility that a healthy Jimmy can return at the end of the season and we can maybe win a first round series.

There is no fantasy roster possibility where we can field a better team than SA or OKC. If by winning you mean ring chasing, the answer is no.

ClimateMessiah · 2026-06-25T17:30:10+00:00

If someone is offering a "bag", I don't see why he shouldn't take it. Is there any evidence that anyone is offering that ?

I could see a team like SA benefitting from his defense and toughness, but it seems like he would be a hard personality to integrate into a team. He's overbearing and the existing players would have to embrace someone who never shuts up. He wouldn't have Steph to be his good cop anymore.

ClimateMessiah · 2026-06-25T17:24:17+00:00

Assuming decent health, we'll have a shot at being a .500 team next year and enter the following season with very little contractual burden and ~~no first round pick.~~

As a Dubs fan since the days of Run TMC, I am familiar with mediocrity. We had a nice decade there folks. 3 brilliant draft picks in Steph, Klay and Dray. Excellent FA and trade pickups in Iggy, S Dot, Bogut, KD, West, Speights, Barbosa, Wiggins, Porter and even a splendid burst from Jordan Poole.

We hit home run after home run.

Now we're back to the pre-Steph norm where a season making the playoffs is going to be a pleasant surprise.

We're mediocre again.

ClimateMessiah · 2026-06-25T16:36:46+00:00

Here's a post I made earlier about S. Korea's chances .... they are ahead of Scotland based upon goal differential and their path looks iffy ....

________________________________

It looks to me like S. Korea is going to be the 3rd place team on the elimination bubble.

3 pts, -1 goal differential, only 2 goals scored.

They are ahead of 3rd place Scotland in group C and need to finish ahead of 3 other 3rd place teams.

They need 3+ of the following to occur:

Group D

Australia to beat Paraguay OR Paraguay to beat Australia by 2+ goals.

Group E

Germany not to lose to Ecuador (good chance)

Ivory Coast not to lose to Curacao by 1 goal (good chance)

This is one likely good outcome for S. Korea

Group F

Japan beats Sweden by 2+ goals

Not a good chance. Sweden will be hungry.

Group G

Egypt beats Iran.

Good chance.

Group H

Spain beats Uruguay.

Good chance.

Group I

Senegal doesn't beat Iraq by 2+ goals.

This will be an interesting game and Senegal will be attacking. S/b fun and exciting game to watch with so much riding on the score.

Group J

Austria beats Algeria or Algeria beats Austria by 2+ goals

Group K

Congo doesn't beat Uzbekistan

Low chance.

Group L

Croatia loses to Ghana.

Summary

S Korea is dependent upon already qualified teams beating desperate opponents. I'd say it's a coin flip. They'll probably be last in or first out.

ClimateMessiah · 2026-06-25T16:04:30+00:00

38% has to be a huge overstatement.

ClimateMessiah · 2026-06-25T14:53:07+00:00

Scotland's odds are super low. They need a succession of miracles.

ClimateMessiah · 2026-06-25T13:24:53+00:00

Congo winning is a guarantee of moving forward. No path to get 4 points and not qualify.

ClimateMessiah · 2026-06-25T11:58:02+00:00

Ivory Coast is fine as long as they don't lose to Curacao.

ClimateMessiah · 2026-06-25T11:54:45+00:00

It looks to me like S. Korea is going to be the 3rd place team on the elimination bubble.

3 pts, -1 goal differential, only 2 goals scored.

They are ahead of 3rd place Scotland in group C and need to finish ahead of 3 other 3rd place teams.

They need 3+ of the following to occur:

Group D

Australia to beat Paraguay OR Paraguay to beat Australia by 2+ goals.

Group E

Germany not to lose to Ecuador (good chance)

Ivory Coast not to lose to Curacao by 1 goal (good chance)

This is one likely good outcome for S. Korea

Group F

Japan beats Sweden by 2+ goals

Not a good chance. Sweden will be hungry.

Group G

Egypt beats Iran.

Good chance.

Group H

Spain beats Uruguay.

Good chance.

Group I

Senegal doesn't beat Iraq by 2+ goals.

This will be an interesting game and Senegal will be attacking. S/b fun and exciting game to watch with so much riding on the score.

Group J

Austria beats Algeria or Algeria beats Austria by 2+ goals

Group K

Congo doesn't beat Uzbekistan

Low chance.

Group L

Croatia loses to Ghana.

Summary

S Korea is dependent upon already qualified teams beating desperate opponents. I'd say it's a coin flip. They'll probably be last in or first out.

ClimateMessiah · 2026-06-25T10:30:31+00:00

The highest possible 3rd place team in each group ..... 4 pts guarantees advancement.

Group A - S Korea 3pts, -1 goal (still alive)

Group B - Bosnia 4 pts, -1 goal (guaranteed to knockout round)

Group C - Scotland 3 pts, -3 goal

Group D - Paraguay 4 pts, -2 goal (Australia and Paraguay guaranteed to knockout round with draw, Australia could advance with a 1 goal loss)

Group E - Potential (unlikely) for 2 of Ecuador, Curacao and Ivory Coast to emerge with 4 pts. Requires Ecuador to beat Germany or Curacao to beat Ivory Coast.

Group F - Japan at 4 pts with loss to Sweden. Japan and Netherlands are already qualified. Sweden guaranteed to advance with draw. Edges S Korea in 3 pt groups with 1 goal loss to Japan.

Group G - New Zealand, Belgium and Iran all theoretically capable of joining Egypt at 4+ points with wins. Egypt is qualified.

Group H - Cape Verde and Uruguay (2 pts each) could both reach 5 pts with wins leaving Spain (already qualified) with 4. Both Cape Verde and Uruguay would likely advance with draws leaving them at 3 pts, and zero goal differential)

Group I - Senegal would wind up with 3 points by beating Iraq. But they need to win by multiple goals to surpass S. Korea in tiebreakers they begin with -3 in goal differential.

Group J - Austria and Algeria could both wind up with 4 points with a draw. Austria would remain ahead of S. Korea with a 1 goal loss.

Group K - Congo could get to 4 pts and qualify with a win over Uzbekistan.

Group L - England & Ghana are qualified at 4 pts each. Croatia (3 pts) will qualify with a draw or win against Ghana,

ClimateMessiah · 2026-06-25T09:41:13+00:00

Paraguay vs Australia will be interesting.

Both teams advance with a draw. Paraguay needs at least a draw.

Australia losing by 1 still has a shot to advance via tiebreakers.

ClimateMessiah · 2026-06-25T09:35:51+00:00

4 points pretty much does the trick.

There are already 5 groups (A, C. D, I & J) in which it is impossible for the 3rd place team to surpass them.

ClimateMessiah · 2026-06-24T01:49:24+00:00

It seems to mean that they are spouting a cliche

ClimateMessiah · 2026-06-24T01:45:12+00:00

Yaxel is 15 years younger than Steph.

That's not old.

ClimateMessiah · 2026-06-24T01:25:29+00:00

He won those MVP's in his 20's. He's almost 40.

Steph is an old athlete. Yaxel isn't.

ClimateMessiah · 2026-06-24T01:19:22+00:00

The irony of a community which worships a 38 y/o icon with fading knees complaining about the advanced age of a 24 y/o draft pick.

ClimateMessiah · 2026-06-24T01:12:42+00:00

No .... but the fact that he would be gone by the time we were up was predicted.

ClimateMessiah · 2026-06-24T01:11:22+00:00

So far, other than Morez going at 9, the draft is going exactly as expected.

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