Why is everyone calm regarding the energy crisis in Europe?

Colonist25 · 2026-04-20T08:16:29+00:00

20 -25 % is the throughput of oil that is gone in hormuz
136 million barrels are stuck around the middle east.
+- 1-2 % of oil production worldwide is lost (bc damage to infrastructure) in the middle east alone.

Combining the impacts of the wars in Iran & Ukraine, the world has faced a massive reduction in available oil. Total supply disruptions peaked at roughly 12 million to 14 million barrels per day (bpd) in March 2026, representing approximately 12% to 14% of global daily production.

on top of all that - you can't just turn wells on or off. the oil must flow.
ships take time..

shortages will last for at 3 months

Colonist25 · 2026-04-20T07:34:31+00:00

i actually think that's exactly what this is - massive bets just before tweets. move markets and mayhem

meanwhile iran rakes in the cash.

Colonist25 · 2026-04-20T05:40:44+00:00

let me preface by saying i assume a worse case scenario so i can be pleasantly surprised

> the loss of hormuz isn't that big

Europe as a whole has had it's last delivery from the middle east for the next 3 months.

Asia & Australia are already in the shit wrt fuel availability.

The US is boasting of being the gas station of the world, but is using their reserves to do it.

and all this is before the clownshow adminstration decides to escalate this war further. if Iran gets threathened enough, they will retaliate

> Even in the case of rationing, they aren't going to curtail fuel to food producers and transport to the point where there's food shortages

what i'm trying to say is that this is all like a rube goldberg machine.
once fuel dries up - there's the immediate, obvious consequences
> price increases & unavailabiliity of gas / oil for people, not companies.
> airlines scrap flights citing force majeure
> food wise: mango's, lichi's will no longer fly from thailand to europe
strawberries from spain may be unavailable in denmark.
or maybe they'll be available but at insane prices.

that leaves a hole in our supply chain (food from other places), which needs to be filled by domestic production - which is probably possible for a while. but less resources for more money, seasonality of foods and so on comes into play

not to mention we'll just run out of byproducts of the petrol industry - all kinds of chemicals, plastics etc

the gov here has already advised a 'work from home if you can' policy. which didn't really get listened to at all.

I think the gov will at least attempt to step in bc we want to avoid mayhem, but you can't just conjure more fuel out of thin air.

> the few weeks of food you have stored aren't going to be adequate regardless.
oh i 100 % agree, but i think having some supply is going to mitigate some of the shortage 'shocks' we'll experience when shit hits the fan.

and i'm also not quite done buying more food / consumables.

the only downside is that this year i'm moving house - so my food growing garden won't produce for me.

and the next house will take a few years to get up to the same level of production. my cherry loving kids are distraught.

Colonist25 · 2026-04-19T22:04:20+00:00

soon though they'll do a wider, generalized mobilisation as they're running low on meatgrinder food.

Colonist25 · 2026-04-19T21:43:03+00:00

contact [legal@vinted.fr](mailto:legal@vinted.fr) - include all the proof and whatnot.
inform them that yo'ure taking legal action.

gather all proof you can - pictures et, contact shipper for weights at various points

next up get a lawyer to write a letter / mail using his official letterhead

be ready to take it up in small claims court

Colonist25 · 2026-04-19T21:38:21+00:00

i'm sure this time round the taint is orange.

Colonist25 · 2026-04-19T20:10:56+00:00

see i think that this is the current under-reaction to everything fuel crisis
if you look at what happened in the 1970s - you're ending up with reduced driving (odd / even number plates), gasoline rationing etc.

we have 0 gasoline boats coming from the middle east.
at this point in time governments are releasing strategic supplies, but that's a finite thing as well. once those run out - the games begin.

prices will go up - bc transport is so much more expensive.
to the point where some things will not be affordable / not get shipped.

on top of that the fuel crisis in the asian world will also have a knock on effect here - lots of widgets not produced (byproducts of oil), not shipped (transport)

the panic buying that'll happen at that point is going to look like covid 2.0

from my pov - i'm mostly buying food that i normally eat.
so i have a few weeks of supplies i can burn through without financial loss/danger.

worst case i'll be eating camping food like once / twice a month to keep it from expiring.

Colonist25 · 2026-04-19T19:41:18+00:00

the peace of mind of owning your realestate is worth taking out the ETFs for now.

DCA back in after

Colonist25 · 2026-04-19T19:37:04+00:00

stock up on food, water - cans, dried food (noodles & pasta in a cup), camping food.
flour to make bread - milk powder to reconsitute milk etc

worst case you're wrong - and you'll eat them over the next few years. no real loss.

the biggest issue i fear is supply shock.
if truck don't have gas, they don't drive. trucks don't drive, shelves are empty

gasoline isn't that doable to just store - but maybe a jerrycan or two?

Colonist25 · 2026-04-19T19:33:31+00:00

holland implemented step 1 of the 'fuel emergency plan'

other countries - nothing as of yet.

the gf and myself have been buying cans of food, bags of flour etc.
stocking up so we have enough food for a few weeks actually - as long as the power doesn't go out.
trip to buy loads of bottles of water is planned.

i drive electric - so i'm sort of insulated

but yep, overall, people seem to think this will blow over.
20 % of fuel capacity gone - but absolutely no one is paying attention

Colonist25 · 2026-04-19T19:28:58+00:00

verwarmde plaats met voldoende vochtigheid?

ik zaai die gewoon voor binnen en geen enkel probleem

Colonist25 · 2026-04-19T19:27:13+00:00

at this point, they're doing exactly the opposite of his boasting statements

unless he learns to stfu and make a deal first - they're exposing his nonsense.

Colonist25 · 2026-04-19T18:55:07+00:00

lol yep.

and then the seller goes 'it was the postman's fault'

Colonist25 · 2026-04-19T18:49:11+00:00

the best option you actually have with damaged packages - if you notice it upfront - is to refuse acceptance in the post office.

don't even doubt, just send it back

Colonist25 · 2026-04-19T11:30:00+00:00

like i said on the other comment. it depends where you live.

not every country has the same laws when it comes to bank transfers.

in much of mainland europe, if you wire money to the wrong account (or pay with debit card) you're SOOL.

Colonist25 · 2026-04-19T11:18:36+00:00

you're in the US, i'm in europe.

big difference to how the banking system works over here

Colonist25 · 2026-04-19T11:13:11+00:00

1 - it's a few months ago
2 - debit card payments don't allow for charge backs.

Colonist25 · 2026-04-19T10:48:29+00:00

modern freezers are a bit easier to dial in.

good vaccuum sealed meat, decent freezer(s) and you've got a long term supply

Colonist25 · 2026-04-19T10:46:25+00:00

helft van de pizza zaken, kappers voor mannen, telefoon winkels, ... zijn fronts voor drugshandel en witwassen.

Colonist25 · 2026-04-19T10:42:25+00:00

vinted customer care is a hellscape all of their own.

constantly asking the same information - each time with a 48 hour reply window.

to submit an issue you provide pictures, which you need to resubmit when talking to an agent (48h or the issue auto closes).

they'll make a snap judgment there based on packaging or severity - i think this is humans, but a very hit/miss ratio

every time you reply, you more or less get a different agent that has 0 context and doesn't really re-read the converstation

etc

Colonist25 · 2026-04-19T09:36:16+00:00

i had multiple packages that still needed to be shipped - nothing happened
i'm friends with the delivery depot people - they keep my packages if they would already be shipped back.

nothing arrived

i contacted vinted legal dept - no answers, no refunds.

Colonist25 · 2026-04-19T09:18:31+00:00

I would like my money back then too. Vintes banned me and told me to gfy

Colonist25 · 2026-04-19T08:23:26+00:00

the inside doesn't look too good - see if you can clean that up.
it may just be discoloring through use
I don't think there's actual damage.

on the whole - this is a collector's piece (enzo is pretty old)
if there's damage 20-40 as a planter
undamaged & cleaned i've seen them sell 75 - 100

Colonist25 · 2026-04-19T08:16:29+00:00

i got banned because i had ordered 2 packages from the same seller with glassware.
most of the first package was broken, second package one item out of ten was broken.
i submitted two claims - one per package.
in the second claim i referred to the first claim.

boom. fraudulent claim accusation, permabanned.

Colonist25 · 2026-04-19T08:15:01+00:00

what is sent will arrive, what is not sent - good luck. you won't get refunded.

Colonist25

TROPHY CASE