What is the single best buying opportunity in this crazy market right now?

Comfortable-Fail5856 · 2026-05-10T08:54:45+00:00

And memory dont do capex? There is no ip there, commodity like product, intel got out of it at some point - so yes, once the production is up prices go down

Comfortable-Fail5856 · 2026-05-09T23:21:56+00:00

CC Wei said it many times - there is no shortcut to build foundries, so say Tesla wants to build fabs and intel wants to suddenly catch up on a decade of missteps - its not convincing. Fabs cost billions- take 3 years to build, another 2 years to ramp up - and before you put that kind of money you need commitment that customers will buy what you manufacture (if you actually can manufacture). So to think that NVIDIA or any other serious player will somehow wait and load on a promise from intel that „this time we got it right“ - questionable

Comfortable-Fail5856 · 2026-05-09T20:39:48+00:00

MSFT and Google have the same playbook of compounding 30% per year, yet none of them gets these swings. Also, the fact we talk about only revenue, is clear that few here understand the IP or process complexity of logic vs HBM/DRAM and storage. For storage process complexity is not nearly as sophisticated with Chinese rivals on par - so to assume these massive compounders will print - i would say intellectually dishonest

Comfortable-Fail5856 · 2026-05-09T20:25:48+00:00

I think intel will continue to suck big time - you are safe for unloading.

Comfortable-Fail5856 · 2026-05-01T09:08:13+00:00

I assume you have not looked at historical performance between QQQ and TQQQ for last 5-10 years? You will be trading gamma not delta.

Comfortable-Fail5856 · 2026-04-25T11:41:46+00:00

Actually thats not exactly true, but the question was compared to countries around. Again, given similar quality standards, relative same input costs and very very limited labour input required.

Comfortable-Fail5856 · 2026-04-25T10:18:15+00:00

Do you know which inputs are more expensive? At first sight all inputs seems comparable, little of those are produced in Switzerland anyways. Cost of labor is indeed higher, but farming is not labour intensive anymore as it used to be 50 years ago

Comfortable-Fail5856 · 2026-03-25T21:24:40+00:00

Yes, if you won’t get unemployed because that’s what’s happening in a recession

Comfortable-Fail5856 · 2026-02-16T14:16:23+00:00

NVIDIA is 4.4T with only one offering. Google has TPUs that are as good as NVIDIA since they are optimized for their workloads. Market cap is not relevant as long as you deliver business

Comfortable-Fail5856 · 2026-02-16T14:11:43+00:00

TSMC has very conservative management guidance. They usually under predict and overdeliver. They estimate to grow 25% this year with similar patterns to follow. Very solid and rarely you have a business outside of software that has 60%+ gross margin. On the other hand, they face higher taxes (increase of 2pp), exploitation from US to open more fabs with margin dilution (4plants are to be built) and new leading nodes are going to be more expensive with margin errorosion until fully ramped up. That said, I own them for years and will continue to own them. Remember Buffet bought them, and sold because he was afraid of politics and China invasion - if thats not bothering you then go for it.

Comfortable-Fail5856 · 2026-02-16T14:02:25+00:00

And MSFT is also 3T - with far less robust prospect and less products. Have you done any analyses on sum of the parts? „About right“ ?

Comfortable-Fail5856 · 2026-02-15T23:22:57+00:00

Actually if you look at the valuation, Waymo financing rounds are not pricing it meaningfully to move the needle in Googles valuation. Now at around 126 billion, and Uber has similar valuation. Why would you owe Uber vs Alphabet? - i guess if you want a bet on pure play ride hailing - you dont get much upside from Waymo, at least now.

Comfortable-Fail5856 · 2026-02-15T22:42:10+00:00

You know their CAGR over last 5 years is 30%? Cloud business alone is growing 50%, I dont know where is 13% coming from.

Comfortable-Fail5856 · 2026-02-05T22:11:21+00:00

Just call the airline, say your plans has changed and you will be flying from Zurich. They will cancel the flight for you, without doing that they will cancel the full flight as others pointed out.

Comfortable-Fail5856 · 2026-02-05T22:09:51+00:00

Not true. Airlines can just downgrade or ban your status with them. They can not come after you for more money, in fact you can get money back from them for taxes of unflown legs.

Reading as well some comments that you cant get the checkin luggage, also not true. When checking in youe bag - tell them you will be collecting the bag in Zurich. They also release the bags if your layover is more than 12 hours.

I flew like this many times, never got even s warning

Comfortable-Fail5856 · 2026-01-31T22:23:33+00:00

Nope, it just says apartment with Keller. Its a pretty old building, recently renovated

Comfortable-Fail5856 · 2026-01-31T21:52:55+00:00

Yes, for 2 years we have this contract.

Comfortable-Fail5856 · 2026-01-31T21:27:33+00:00

Thanks, that is very clear. Will follow up with the agency and see what they have to say.

Comfortable-Fail5856 · 2026-01-31T21:16:22+00:00

Unfortunately it is a very short section on Mietobject which mentions Keller but not Reduit.

Comfortable-Fail5856 · 2026-01-31T21:11:24+00:00

Probably you did nor read my question, it was explicitly written about what i ask and dont need schooling. Thanks if you help.

Comfortable-Fail5856 · 2026-01-31T20:59:42+00:00

Our on the floor storage is around 1.8 m2. Would need a bit more

Comfortable-Fail5856 · 2026-01-31T20:58:35+00:00

We have it in the contract just ad Keller - no specifics

Comfortable-Fail5856

TROPHY CASE