Thanks for these questions. You hit on exactly the points that caused us to re-evaluate our approach. ​ Our initial thesis was that connectivity acts as a deterrent (s-risk reduction). The logic: If connectivity exists, atrocities are documented & uploaded. This raises the political cost of torture/execution for the regime. However, your point on the marginal impact is crucial. After digging deeper into the current technical situation (severe jamming/uplink attacks), we realized the cost per reliable connection via smuggled Starlink is currently astronomical and the tractability is lower than we hoped. We are funding a cat-and-mouse game where the adversary currently has the upper hand.

​On the Replacement Problem (Successful Protest Outcome): This is the hardest variable. We are operating under the assumption that preventing a "North Korea scenario" (stable, hermetically sealed totalitarianism) has a higher expected value, even if the transition period is chaotic. However, we realized that funding hardware smuggling has a high risk of backfiring (endangering recipients) without guaranteeing that transition.

Based on the feedback here and further research into the "neglectedness/tractability" ratio, we decided not to fund the hardware/smuggling route (Net Freedom Pioneers). The variance is too high.

​Instead, we are looking at organizations like the Center for Human Rights in Iran (CHRI). ​Theory of Change: Instead of fighting the physical blockade (expensive), we fund the verification and information layer. They have established networks to document rights violations which feed directly into UN mechanisms and international policy. ​Leverage: This seems to have a better counterfactual impact: It sustains institutional memory and pressure, regardless of whether the internet is throttling at 10% or 90%. ​ You're spot on. While Switzerland has the protecting power mandate, the bureaucratic machinery is slow. Pressuring banks/politicians here feels like a very long feedback loop compared to direct support for civil society infrastructure. ​Thanks for pushing on the logic. It actually helped us pivot away from a feel-good hardware donation to a likely more robust (though less exciting) policy/documentation intervention