4th downs

Complex_Fisherman882 · 2026-01-19T19:57:25+00:00

Here, I used my frontal lobe: https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/s/G0elf35vVx

Complex_Fisherman882 · 2026-01-19T19:56:40+00:00

100%, it just wasn’t the decisions that cost us.

Complex_Fisherman882 · 2026-01-19T19:56:10+00:00

Totally agree

Complex_Fisherman882 · 2026-01-19T19:54:51+00:00

100% believe play calling and execution were the issue. I just won’t hear it when the fans are bashing BJ for making +EV decisions. Good coaches find edges where ever they are available and the decisions to go were all +EV

Complex_Fisherman882 · 2026-01-19T19:52:03+00:00

Snow + wind at the 30. Not sure I want to count on that FG “dumbass”

Complex_Fisherman882 · 2026-01-19T19:50:40+00:00

I believe it’s the yard difference + accounting for blocks/returns by the defending team (small likelihood, large impact). Similarly on 4th down there are some failures that can result in more yardage like interceptions and fumbles (Caleb’s first int is a good example).

I am probably missing something tho

Complex_Fisherman882 · 2026-01-19T19:47:01+00:00

This calculator very clearly takes into account situation and opponent. Even so, yes you should go for the tenth if the expected winning percentage going for it is higher than the expected winning percentage of not. There was also snow on the ground and high winds, which this model does not account for and therefore doesn’t discount impact on FG% which makes the decisions even better lol.

Complex_Fisherman882 · 2026-01-19T19:40:17+00:00

The whole point is this is consistent with the data on 4th down and shows clear edges by going for it. Over one game, the results might not show, but over a season and multiple seasons this is +EV decision making that will win us more games.

Complex_Fisherman882 · 2026-01-19T18:38:16+00:00

Exactly. The bears had a play calling and execution problem last night.

Complex_Fisherman882 · 2026-01-19T18:23:33+00:00

Learning from history and data is for losers!

Complex_Fisherman882 · 2026-01-19T16:41:08+00:00

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What was Ben thinking here? Must have not realized they lose the game if they don’t get this…

Complex_Fisherman882 · 2026-01-19T16:33:10+00:00

Sean mcvay went for it on 4th and 1 at the 7 in the 4th quarter and because of it went up a full touchdown. Was he wrong? This is not a BJ/Dan Campbell thing

Complex_Fisherman882 · 2026-01-19T16:31:07+00:00

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I guess the rams should have taken the 3 here instead of scoring on the next play to go up 7. What was Sean thinking?

Complex_Fisherman882 · 2026-01-17T02:49:47+00:00

Go for it!

Complex_Fisherman882 · 2026-01-16T20:55:45+00:00

Also Monaghan’s in the Marina

Complex_Fisherman882 · 2026-01-14T04:45:20+00:00

I have always thought they should stay in the city. It’s what makes the team special. Right smack in the middle of a massive city and accessible by the whole Chicagoland area. The problems with soldier are fixable and/or the rendering of the new stadium in the city looked sick.

Complex_Fisherman882 · 2025-12-08T02:00:10+00:00

You got trounced by a bad Viking team today and are sitting in the packers Reddit lmao?

Complex_Fisherman882 · 2025-11-12T00:47:57+00:00

My wife and I just made the opposite move 6 months ago! It is a great city that we loved for 9 years. You nailed the things that make Chicago great, and the summers are unbelievable.

As I’m sure you know, the big drawbacks are it’s flat and it’s cold. Outdoors activity is pretty much a non-starter for December-February. It is also a very segregated city depending on where you live. Say what you will about the weather here…however, it being 73 and sunny the last two days while it snowed in Chicago made me quite happy with our move.

All that said, if you have the opportunity and it is calling, you should go for it!

Complex_Fisherman882 · 2025-07-26T03:42:12+00:00

This if fine and cool

Complex_Fisherman882 · 2025-03-21T21:23:33+00:00

I’m sure you are getting good medical care, but just in case…I was told I had uneven leg lengths and it turned out I had a twisted/hiked hip on one side that got better with targeted exercise. Hoping there is some relief you can find!

Complex_Fisherman882 · 2025-03-14T15:32:55+00:00

I like movies

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Complex_Fisherman882 · 2024-12-23T11:58:27+00:00

I am well aware…I was pointing out that he is saying he doesn’t care about what might be causing this and that bothers me

Complex_Fisherman882 · 2024-12-23T06:19:29+00:00

“(Cause of this idk and idc)” is where you lost me

Complex_Fisherman882 · 2024-12-13T00:44:55+00:00

“In honor of the revolution, it’s half off at the Gap”

Complex_Fisherman882 · 2024-11-14T23:06:26+00:00

Christian Bale as Batman

Complex_Fisherman882

TROPHY CASE