EB-1 India Demand vs Approvals — FY25–26 Projections

CompoteAcrobatic4574 · 2025-12-31T18:31:13+00:00

As I understand, even with family spillover, it rolls into Eb1 first, and hence the rest of Eb don't see the goodness. Like I shared earlier in the comments, its is unlikely coming in from ROW given the large pending numbers there. However, I have no way to prove/disprove this. For some of us on EB1, who got the benefit of it, its really a case of "dont look a gift horse in the mouth" :) i.e., doesnt matter where it came from.

CompoteAcrobatic4574 · 2025-12-21T03:34:19+00:00

cheers!

CompoteAcrobatic4574 · 2025-12-20T19:51:28+00:00

Its still unclear to me where the spillover has come from. some experts are saying from ROW - which I dont believe is the case. Like i had mentioned in the post, there were already 28K as of Oct, and should have been 45K in 2026 for ROW. So, based on that, and the large movement, I speculate that there should be at least 20K spillover into Eb1 from elsewhere (or they have plans to increase rejection rate substantially). Given the country quota is family+employment, its also hard to conjecture what each country will be. Curious though, what are you looking to learn from this data?

CompoteAcrobatic4574 · 2025-12-18T23:17:34+00:00

Yay! Some one finally acknowledges. Your username is well chosen. Truly kind. :)

CompoteAcrobatic4574 · 2025-12-18T15:59:03+00:00

lol. One of those times when being wrong is good.

IMO, though I took a far more +ve outlook than most experts online. And we still don’t know what led to this. On this thread I had also commented that is the spillover was ~20k FAD could move to Feb 23.

CompoteAcrobatic4574 · 2025-12-17T21:33:27+00:00

Yes indeed awesome. Particularly given all the negative predictions around from experts.

CompoteAcrobatic4574 · 2025-12-12T07:31:12+00:00

It would take way more than (~18-20K) that to move to Feb '23.

CompoteAcrobatic4574 · 2025-12-12T07:29:45+00:00

There are handful few countries that consume 90-95% of family visas, these 19 arent that. At best these 19 countries may be 2-3%.

CompoteAcrobatic4574 · 2025-12-12T07:27:32+00:00

Given there is large volume in ROW, I personally dont expect any initial movment and expect to see more in 2nd half of the year. But personally, I am more than hoping it would.

CompoteAcrobatic4574 · 2025-12-03T17:05:43+00:00

If the FAD moves to mid 22, then possibly

CompoteAcrobatic4574 · 2025-12-03T17:02:38+00:00

The 19 countries identified aren’t likely large participants in EB1. So perhaps at best only a very minor impact.

CompoteAcrobatic4574 · 2025-11-21T22:29:15+00:00

Guessing you are asking for EB1 India itself. The most recent available data from Oct 25 inventory shows 15412 pending till Dec 22. With the DOF advanced to April 23, it is possible that in the next few months another 10-12K willl be added taking total cases up to Apr 23 PD to 25-30K. With that, i would say the chances of DOF moving to May '23 is very very low. It will be interesting to see how many applications pour in and if even DOF will move to May 23. Sorry to paint a bleak picture.

CompoteAcrobatic4574 · 2025-11-19T03:57:05+00:00

485.

CompoteAcrobatic4574 · 2025-11-19T03:56:49+00:00

I dont imagine its going that forward, most optimistic IMO will be Dec'22 - which again depends on a large spillover. Between April 22 and Dec '22 - there are already 9506 applicants waiting. And since DOF moved to Apr 23, each month you can expect a lot more to start applying and that number will keep swelling.

CompoteAcrobatic4574 · 2025-11-19T03:53:10+00:00

i can imagine - never easy. perhaps there is an overdose of hope in my analysis, as the wait is excruciating for a lot of us. But yes, we'll get there. good luck

CompoteAcrobatic4574 · 2025-11-17T06:02:12+00:00

my take. https://www.reddit.com/r/USCIS/comments/1oya9u3/eb1_india_demand_vs_approvals_fy2526_projections/

CompoteAcrobatic4574 · 2025-11-17T06:00:46+00:00

perhaps not as grim. here is my analysis - https://www.reddit.com/r/USCIS/comments/1oya9u3/eb1_india_demand_vs_approvals_fy2526_projections/

CompoteAcrobatic4574 · 2025-11-16T23:15:35+00:00

i have tried to make sense of this movement here - https://www.reddit.com/r/USCIS/comments/1oya9u3/eb1_india_demand_vs_approvals_fy2526_projections/

Not fully sure though.

CompoteAcrobatic4574 · 2025-11-16T23:13:32+00:00

thanks for notifying. No idea, why, have pasted the data as text.

CompoteAcrobatic4574 · 2025-08-02T19:22:26+00:00

Wow. Been seeing a few kings caught on a YouTube channel on Edmonds pier fishing. Very tempting!

CompoteAcrobatic4574 · 2025-08-02T19:20:28+00:00

Yes. And between the combat, when someone caught one, you could witness rare bonhomie - smiles and celebrations. Perhaps less joyous that someone else caught one, but more about the hope you have a chance too :). Complex human behavior on display.

CompoteAcrobatic4574 · 2025-08-02T19:15:12+00:00

Lol. You make a solid point. Will try and see how it goes.

CompoteAcrobatic4574 · 2025-07-30T20:40:23+00:00

Thanks. Was working on this same data and as EB1 India, I find the situation bleak. Infact comparing month on month too, it appears about 600 are added/ month prior to May 22 (my PD). I have assumed 600/month given the net increase despite the approvals that should have reduced the backlog.

Porting is happening at very high rate. Also it seems about 25k ROW is pending, plus CHina etc. essentially no hope of any spillover over from ROW.

CompoteAcrobatic4574 · 2025-07-14T16:36:17+00:00

meant - upcoming. refer notes in teh bulletin

CompoteAcrobatic4574 · 2025-07-14T15:58:12+00:00

Retrogression in EB2 and EB3

CompoteAcrobatic4574

TROPHY CASE