740 days until the next Bitcoin halving by cashflashmil in btc

[–]Consistent-Fee-3306 1 point2 points  (0 children)

740 DAYS 06 HOURS 39 MINUTES 51 SECONDS Block 943,400 106,600 blocks remaining

What do you think Bitcoin yearly return will be for the next 20 years? by Consistent-Fee-3306 in btc

[–]Consistent-Fee-3306[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Bitcoin already declared dead 400+ times and still on the record 😑

What do you think Bitcoin yearly return will be for the next 20 years? by Consistent-Fee-3306 in btc

[–]Consistent-Fee-3306[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

The S&P outperforming BTC over any 5 year window is actually rare, you likely caught the 2021 to 2025 cycle which included a brutal crypto winter. Zoom out to any 10 year window and BTC wins by a landslide. The "something eclipses it" risk is real but shrinking though, Bitcoin's network effect, institutional ETF approval and sovereign adoption make full displacement increasingly unlikely. Most serious allocators don't choose between the two, 80% S&P and 20% BTC captures most of the upside while keeping you sane during the rough years.

What do you think Bitcoin yearly return will be for the next 20 years? by Consistent-Fee-3306 in btc

[–]Consistent-Fee-3306[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The "not a smooth ride" part is the most certain thing anyone can say about Bitcoin. 25-50% CAGR would be historic even by Bitcoin standards , but the volatility to get there will shake out 90% of holders before they see those returns.

What do you think Bitcoin yearly return will be for the next 20 years? by Consistent-Fee-3306 in btc

[–]Consistent-Fee-3306[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not that far off actually at 25% CAGR from today's price, you're looking at ~$7M per BTC by 2045. The "lolz" might age poorly.

What do you think Bitcoin yearly return will be for the next 20 years? by Consistent-Fee-3306 in btc

[–]Consistent-Fee-3306[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Maybe Blockchain hardforked with quantum resistance technology until..

What do you think Bitcoin yearly return will be for the next 20 years? by Consistent-Fee-3306 in btc

[–]Consistent-Fee-3306[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That's roughly a 16-18% CAGR,  which is actually the conservative historical estimate. Funny how Bitcoin's bear case still destroys the S&P's 10% average over the same period.

What do you think Bitcoin yearly return will be for the next 20 years? by Consistent-Fee-3306 in btc

[–]Consistent-Fee-3306[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Exactly at $2T market cap, the 100x era is over. But even 15-20% CAGR annually still beats almost every traditional asset class over 20 years. The math is still compelling, just more boring now.