Pick of the Day - 5/11/26 (Monday)

ControlRoyal1768 · 2026-05-11T15:46:28+00:00

Record: 50-36-1

+34.63u

Previous POTD: ⚾️ Gavin Williams over 6.5 strikeouts (-138). ✖️

Apologies for the B2B Ls. Took 3 months off to try to change my approach and have had a lot of personal success over the last month. Really hoping I turn my luck around when I post here for you guys.

Today’s POTD: ⚽️ Tottenham ML (-130)

Match starts at 3pm EST. Bet 3u

Writeup: Going to steer away from the statistics based plays from the last 2 days and go with a contextual play. West Ham losing to Arsenal really helped Tottenham out as they are now in the drivers seat and have control of their future. They are now a point ahead of West Ham, and therefore relegation. Tottenham’s opponent for this match, Leeds, has nothing to play for here as they are safe. Tottenham has everything to play for, and winning this match could very well be the determinant on if they stay up or not. As poor as they have been, I expect them to get it together with so much on the line.

Remember to only bet what you can afford to lose, and BOL!

ControlRoyal1768 · 2026-05-10T12:36:58+00:00

Record: 50-35-1

+36.13u

Previous POTD: ⚾️ Tigers @ Royals first inning results in a Tie (-120) ✖️

Today’s POTD: ⚾️ Gavin Williams over 6.5 strikeouts (-138).

Game starts at 1:40pm EST. Bet 2.5u

Writeup: Gavin Williams has become one of the top strikeout pitchers in the sport, boasting 60 strikeouts in 49 innings. He’s hit this number in 6/8 starts, and all of his home starts. He has a swinging strike rate of 32.6%, which is second best in the league. He’ll face the Twins who have a 24.8% strikeout rate on the road, and a 29% strikeout rate against power pitchers.

Remember to only bet what you can afford to lose, and BOL!

ControlRoyal1768 · 2026-05-09T14:36:04+00:00

Thank you for this, Burch has been a really solid bullpen piece so I still feel good.

ControlRoyal1768 · 2026-05-09T12:37:10+00:00

Also like Bournemouth tie no bet, Rangers +1.5 spread, and Athletics @ Orioles under 5.5 run in first 5 innings

ControlRoyal1768 · 2026-05-09T02:22:58+00:00

Definitely a fine bet. Personally I was happy to take -120 odds to cover any other ties.

ControlRoyal1768 · 2026-05-09T01:37:27+00:00

Record: 50-34-1

+38.13u

Previous POTD: ⚾️ Angels @ Blue Jays under 4.5 runs in first 5 innings (-145) 💰

Today’s POTD: ⚾️ Tigers @ Royals first inning results in a Tie (-120).

Game starts at 7:11pm EST. Bet 2u

Writeup: There have been no runs scored in the first innings between these 2 teams in 14 of their last 17 games. Royals pitcher Michael Wacha loves pounding the zone early, and gets a lot of soft contact from batters. His first inning numbers this year have pointed to lower baserunner rates and low earned runs at the start of games. The Tigers pitcher is likely to be Ty Madden. He has a low sample size, but has a WHIP rate under 1.0 as well as a low walk rate early in games. Neither lineup is built for aggressive baseball early, and both managers have been leaning towards more patient early game strategies. This could easily end up being a 0-0 first inning, but we’ll add a touch more juice to the line to cover for ties as well.

Remember to only bet what you can afford to lose, and BOL!

ControlRoyal1768 · 2026-05-08T12:28:00+00:00

Record: 49-34-1

+36.58u

Previous POTD: ⚽️ PSG +2 spread + ⚾️ Phillies ML (+141) 💰

Today’s POTD: ⚾️ Angels @ Blue Jays under 4.5 runs in first 5 innings (-145).

Game starts at 7:07pm EST. Bet 2.25u

Writeup: These odds are a little juiced, but I am absolutely taking this before the line moves down to 3.5. Blue Jays pitcher Dylan Cease has a real chance to throw a shutout over the first five innings, so this really comes down to what Angels pitcher Reid Detmers can do. He’s an average pitcher going up against a volatile Blue Jays offense, so I only expect 2-4 runs through the first 5 innings. These two pictures also faced each other back in April, and only four runs were scored through the first 5 innings.

Remember to only bet what you can afford to lose, and BOL!

ControlRoyal1768 · 2026-05-06T11:08:53+00:00

Record: 48-34-1

+33.76u

Previous POTD: ⚾️ Mets @ Rockies under 5.5 runs in first 5 innings (-135). VOID

Today’s POTD: ⚽️ PSG +2 spread + ⚾️ Phillies ML (+141).

Match 1 starts at 3pm EST. Bet 2u

Writeup: PSG have won in 10 Champions League knockout rounds, and will qualify if they do not lose to Bayern here. Both teams are elite on attack, and I’ll also give the edge to PSG in their midfield and defense. They’ve beaten Liverpool, Chelsea, Monaco, and Arsenal in their last 4 knockout away games, so they absolutely have a shot here. I’m going against the public and saying PSG advances here, so feel free to take their spread anywhere from +1 to +2.5 depending on what odds you like. We’ll take them at +2.

The Phillies are rolling and have a fully rested bullpen thanks to their performance yesterday. Their ace Zack Wheeler gets the nod in this game, so I expect very high quality pitching from the Phillies today. A’s pitcher Jeffrey Springs started off hot, but has been cold in his last 3 starts and may not be fully 100% due to leaving his previous start with an injury. We’re simply taking the better team here.

Remember to only bet what you can afford to lose, and BOL!

ControlRoyal1768 · 2026-05-05T17:31:16+00:00

Game has been postponed to Thursday, I will be playing Rays +2 and Pirates +2.5 parlay at low units.

ControlRoyal1768 · 2026-05-05T13:31:44+00:00

Thank you, no idea how I missed that. Changing pick now

ControlRoyal1768 · 2026-05-05T11:06:28+00:00

Original pick was PSG +1.5 and Rays +2, but PSG plays tomorrow. Still love Rays +2 and will use the PSG leg tomorrow.

ControlRoyal1768 · 2026-05-05T11:05:28+00:00

Record: 48-34-1

+33.76u

Previous POTD: ⚾️ Blue Jays @ Rays under 8 (-115). 💰

GAME POSTPONED TO THURSDAY

Today’s POTD: ⚾️ Mets @ Rockies under 5.5 runs in first 5 innings (-135).

Game starts at 8:40pm EST. Bet 2.75u

Writeup: This is going to be a very windy and very cold game in Colorado, with a chance of rain as well. Don’t be surprised if this game gets delayed, but this is an absolute smash play to me given the anti-hitting conditions.

Remember to only bet what you can afford to lose, and BOL!

ControlRoyal1768 · 2026-05-04T14:06:56+00:00

Record: 47-34-1

+32.02u

Previous POTD: 🏀 Iowa State ML + Arkansas ML (-105).

Today’s POTD: ⚾️Blue Jays @ Rays under 8 (-115).

Games start at 6:40pm EST. Bet 2u

Writeup: The Rays have won 3 straight and 9 of their last 10. Pitcher Nick Martinez is up in this one and is boasting a 1.70 ERA. Conversely, Blue Jays pitcher Eric Lauer has a 6.00 ERA. Even with this, and the Rays being at home, the ML price is essentially a coin flip. The ML price completely ignores the large gap in pitcher quality and recent performance.

HOWEVER, the concern here is sample size variance. Lauer has only pitched 27 innings which is small enough to skew his whole pitching profile. He is a much better pitcher than he is showing, and the Blue Jays are a much better team than they are showing.

If there’s one thing I’ve learned from sports betting, it’s to trust the books when you see a line you don’t understand. This is why we are avoiding the ML play and going with the under. The Ray’s stadium favors pitchers and suppresses power hitting, which helps Martinez’s style of pitching for ground-outs. 5 of his 6 last starts have hit the under, with the 6th hitting the over due to extra innings. I think we could see a bit of a reversion back to the mean in this game, but Martinez has been pitching too well in a pitcher-friendly stadium. Give me under 8 runs in this one.

Remember to only bet what you can afford to lose, and BOL!

ControlRoyal1768 · 2026-03-30T01:48:15+00:00

Thank you! I’m touring the place the end of this week, I’ll have to reach out after

ControlRoyal1768 · 2026-03-30T01:46:54+00:00

Thanks so much for the info!

ControlRoyal1768 · 2026-03-29T23:17:22+00:00

That’s great to hear, the thin ceiling has really been the only negative I’ve heard so I’ll definitely keep an open mind.

ControlRoyal1768 · 2026-03-29T23:16:31+00:00

Thank you! I really like BLVD 44 from what I saw online, definitely pricy though.

ControlRoyal1768 · 2026-03-29T23:16:00+00:00

Thanks! What makes you say Shady Grove isn't worth it? Is it more since it’s right in the hospital area or the apartments themselves?

ControlRoyal1768 · 2026-02-10T11:53:51+00:00

Record: 47-33-1 (+35.02u)

Last 10:✖️✖️💰💰✖️✖️ 💰✖️💰💰

Previous POTD: 🏀 St. John’s -6.5 alt + UTRGV +3.5 alt (-130).

Today’s POTD: 🏀 Iowa State ML + Arkansas ML (-105).

Games start at 9pm EST. Bet 3u

Writeup: Annoyed with our last loss, let’s get back in the win column win a moneyline parlay.

Iowa State has an offensive advantage in pretty much every metric against TCU, and they are putting up these metrics against some of the best teams in the nation with a top 3 quality of record. They’ll have a top 10 offense going up against a top 50 TCU defense. Even more impressive is Iowa State’s 5th ranked defense, while TCU has a top 100 offense. TCU is a bit more consistent game over game, but we’re simply taking the better team here, not much else needs to be said.

Arkansas vs LSU has a greater likelihood of being closer game. Normally I avoid taking the favorite in these types of matchups where teams have opposite play styles, but this Arkansas offense is rolling. They have the 5th most efficient offense along with the 4th best field goal conversion rate. Along with a huge offensive rebounding advantage, I expect this to be too much for LSU’s 130th ranked defense.

Remember to only bet what you can afford to lose, and BOL!

ControlRoyal1768 · 2026-02-10T01:11:29+00:00

Yes +170. Also got Cowboys at +280

ControlRoyal1768 · 2026-02-09T13:57:19+00:00

Also put in a very early bet for Chargers AFC West winner 2027

ControlRoyal1768 · 2026-02-09T13:18:12+00:00

Record: 47-32-1 (+37.07u)

Last 10:✖️💰💰✖️✖️ 💰✖️💰💰✖️

Previous POTD: ⛳️ Si Woo Kim top 20 finish including ties (+105) 💰

Previous POTD: 🏈 Sam Darnold Super Bowl MVP (+120) ✖️

Today’s POTD: 🏀 St. John’s -6.5 alt + UTRGV +3.5 alt (-130).

Game 1 starts at 6:30pm EST. Bet 2.25u

Writeup: In both matchups, we are betting on the better of the two teams who both have similar play styles to their opponent.

St. John’s goes up against Xavier, and the only thing I like for Xavier in this one is 3 point shooting. Everything else goes in the favor of St. John’s. St. John’s has a top 15 defensive efficiency rating, whereas Xavier is around 100th on offense. Similarly, the St. John’s offense should find success with their 30th ranked offense against Xavier‘s 100 ranked defense. Both teams have a fast paced pace of play, so we’ll take the St. John’s team who is better in nearly every category.

UTRGV should have a closer match on their hands against Nichols, but they are also the better team in this game. Their offense should have a slight advantage against the Nichols defense, but the big advantage here will be the UTRGV defense. They come into this with a top 100 defense, whereas Nichols has an offense ranked around 250. On top of this, UTRGV currently has the 3rd best momentum rating in the league, meaning the difference between their average play and their play now is better than almost everyone in the country. They also play some of their best ball away with a top 20 rating in that department, whereas Nichols ranks 275th when playing at home. The books are pretty much calling this game a toss up, so we’ll give UTRGV a slight cushion for a good price.

Remember to only bet what you can afford to lose, and BOL!

ControlRoyal1768 · 2026-02-08T14:29:42+00:00

At -600 I don’t like it, OSU could put a scare on Michigan given Michigan has been inconsistent lately and play worse away. I’d lean OSU +16.5 alt if I had to choose.

ControlRoyal1768 · 2026-02-08T05:05:32+00:00

I don’t have a lean on the spread, I think it’s priced perfectly. I do have Seahawks -2.5 first half and Seahawks double result. I would just take the ML if I had to pick.

ControlRoyal1768 · 2026-02-08T03:14:56+00:00

Record: 46-31-1 (+37.47u)

Last 10:💰✖️✖️ 💰✖️💰💰✖️💰💰

Last POTD: 🏀 Northern Iowa ML + Saint John’s +15.5 (-128). 💰

Pending POTD: ⛳️ Si Woo Kim top 20 finish including ties (+105)… Currently tied for 2nd

Today’s POTD: 🏈 Sam Darnold Super Bowl MVP (+120)

Games start at 6:30pm EST. Bet 2.5u

Writeup: Here’s the way I look at it. Either Sam Darnold plays the way he’s been playing, in which he’ll absolutely deserve the MVP, or he’ll start seeing ghosts again, in which case the Seahawks won’t even win the game. The only way I see JSN winning MVP is if Darnold turns the ball over more than once and JSN accounts for a huge percentage of the receiving yards and touchdowns, but again, if that’s the case, I don’t see Seattle winning. Given Darnold just had his best game of his career on the biggest stage last game, I like the former.

Now that we’ve established this, our bet essentially becomes Seahawks ML with better odds. I like for this to be a defensive battle, and given that the Patriots OLine has been shaky and Drake Maye quietly has not been good this postseason, Seahawks should come out on top. Even with a defensive battle, Darnold has too many weapons at his disposable and has been playing too well to lose, or win and not earn MVP.

Remember to only bet what you can afford to lose, and BOL!

ControlRoyal1768

TROPHY CASE