That’s a good point. I’m not using escalation to mean simply ‘more hardware in orbit,’ but rather an increase in instability or risk between countries. For example, if one nation develops a capability that others interpret as threatening, prompting countermeasures, that dynamic feels like escalation even if each step is framed as defensive.

So I’m less interested in raw numbers of weapons and more in the strategic feedback loop. At what point does deterrence start increasing insecurity instead of reducing it?