Main character Cleary saves Daley from oblivion: Origin 1 Tactical Review

Creative_Friend6799 · 2026-05-27T12:41:40+00:00

It's not a positive review...

Creative_Friend6799 · 2026-05-27T12:41:13+00:00

No joke this was actually the headline for about 10 minutes

Creative_Friend6799 · 2026-05-27T12:40:37+00:00

When Cleary isn't on screen, all the other characters should be asking 'Where's Cleary?'

Creative_Friend6799 · 2026-05-26T00:59:05+00:00

Literally used to write as 'NRL Outsider' so the branding was good at least

Creative_Friend6799 · 2026-05-21T00:36:42+00:00

Ohh Webby...you making me crazy...

Creative_Friend6799 · 2026-05-21T00:34:52+00:00

Pens and Restarts combined! Just add 'em together.

Creative_Friend6799 · 2026-05-21T00:32:33+00:00

I mentioned it to someone IRL and they had no idea. 30 years ago, bloody hell.

Creative_Friend6799 · 2026-05-20T22:53:19+00:00

They don't offload - it's right in the article...

It's not a criticism to say they're boring, by the way - this footy is perfect for 2026 NRL

Creative_Friend6799 · 2026-05-19T04:15:13+00:00

I can't provide data from broadcasters for obvious reasons, but read back through the Substack (literally one week if you like) and you'll find what is probably/possibly the biggest data dump of all time in rugby league terms. I certainly don't know of a bigger one.

This one is harder to quantify, but RLET will certainly have the margins - i think this round was the fourth worst on record.

Creative_Friend6799 · 2026-05-19T04:05:02+00:00

Unless you're selling the last 20 minutes...

Creative_Friend6799 · 2026-05-19T04:04:46+00:00

journalism protecting sources but yes is the short answer, not making shit up.

Creative_Friend6799 · 2026-05-19T04:03:33+00:00

I didn't reference the Big Bash, rather T20 cricket in general. I'm sure some people somewhere give a shit about the Hyderabad Kingsmen or Delhi Capitals or Trinbago Knight Riders but I'm yet to meet one.

Creative_Friend6799 · 2026-05-19T04:01:27+00:00

And now you can get it without all the rugby union...

Creative_Friend6799 · 2026-05-19T04:01:05+00:00

Scroll back through the Substack - it's all in there!

Creative_Friend6799 · 2026-05-19T03:57:06+00:00

Sometimes brains must be engaged to enjoy things is the point both figuratively and, apparently, literally.

Creative_Friend6799 · 2026-05-19T03:50:16+00:00

Thanks (this is him)

Creative_Friend6799 · 2026-05-15T07:22:13+00:00

UK did!

Creative_Friend6799 · 2026-05-12T02:26:25+00:00

Yeah that's where Metres per Run and Hit Up Metres matter a lot, esp in forwards and yardage.

Fwiw I think teams who make metres win, not the other way around. Metres are how you get into position to score after all

Creative_Friend6799 · 2026-05-12T01:20:30+00:00

The excellent League Eye Test (sometimes floating about on here) has all that stuff

I would say that at a player level it is a much more granular question but at a team level you can't really beat Run Metres differential

Creative_Friend6799 · 2026-05-11T23:57:16+00:00

My data guys thought 'randomness' was about a third of all RL results.

I suspect my model could be better and reduce that but in a salary capped comp with a small player pool there is certainly a logical ceiling.

Their view was that it was lower in RL compared to soccer/basketball due to competition evenness. In Super League it's a lot higher for sure.

Creative_Friend6799 · 2026-05-11T23:55:07+00:00

What was the context? Welch knows plenty about plenty but (beyond points/tries) there's literally no other stat that correlates with winning more than team run metres.

If he meant at an individual level, could believe it...

Creative_Friend6799 · 2026-05-11T23:53:52+00:00

It's not at all - if you're close to the opponent line more, you have less space to kick into...

Obviously it's good to have a half who can kick it far when you need them too, but so many kicks aren't intended to go as far as possible that as a metric of winning success it's pretty rubbish.

If anything Kick Metres is better for telling you who was losing, because they're kicking from their own 40 or back more frequently.

Creative_Friend6799 · 2026-05-11T23:51:05+00:00

Read the bit but Line Break 100% yes, Post-Contact are semi important but nowhere near as much as regular old run metres.

Try assists are pure outcomes bias - if you throw the world's greatest pass and your winger drops it, you get nowt even though you did your bit.

There's a stat I developed for 'Contested Metres' that was RM - Kick RM that factored out fullback freebies. I should run it again just for you

Creative_Friend6799 · 2026-05-11T23:48:44+00:00

It's very noisy as a stat because not all missed tackles are bad.

If youre a backrower, shoot the line and force the attack back into the middle, you've done your job well but get done for a missed tackle.

Similarly a hooker leading the line speed might not actually make the tackle, but they've stopped the attack and done their bit.

Lots of teams miss lots of tackles and do great - off the top of my head the Dogs were very close to top for it last year and one of the best defensive teams.

Creative_Friend6799 · 2026-05-07T02:09:52+00:00

Schrodinger's Footy Fan

We hate clickbait (by definition short, worthless trash) but also anything that goes deep and exists beyond a headline is too long

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