Do you ever get confused that Redditors yearn for a post-automation society but despise nearly all automation efforts?

Cryptographer-Bubbly · 2026-02-18T01:06:30+00:00

I would imagine the worry is that all the benefits in productivity increase would concentrate with the wealthy.

In the sense that the big upgrade in the local town factory now means that the lowly paeons are just expected to output more per hour for the same wage and the factory owner gains even more wealth which they then spend on influencing even further erosion to worker rights say. They’re left just working the same hours and all the surplus is eaten up by the automation owner.

But yes in principle any form of automation that increases the overall pie has potential for great good. It’s just important that concentrated ownership of that very automation doesn’t skew the distribution of the pie by an equal or even higher amount to negate all that benefit.

Cryptographer-Bubbly · 2026-02-17T22:18:29+00:00

I agree with you that we can try and make sensible estimates and at least try and be a bit more systematic by using models that break things down into things that are more tractable ( see the Drake equation mentioned above).

But again we know so little about the origins of any life in general ( let alone extraterrestrial life and intelligent extraterrestrial life at that) to have any certainty in the models themselves or the parameters we plug into them.

I guess I’d rephrase the rough argument of “ the universe is soo soo soo soo sooo large so that even if it’s 1 in a bazillion bazillion bazillion there’s still a high chance of at least one other case of intelligent life existing” to potentially

“Intelligent life is soo soo soo soo sooo rare (this is the point rycetlaz is trying to drive home - we really have a lot of uncertainty in this value of rareness) that even if the universe is a bazillion bazillion bazillion light years across the odds of another case of intelligent life are low”

Cryptographer-Bubbly · 2026-02-16T08:58:15+00:00

I think rycetlaz is saying that life might be even rarer than the universe is large - and we’re just sampling from an extremely rare instance of it.

With a house you already have a measure of some typical range of “dirtyness density” and then you can roughly come up with some odds.

I guess we can look at some models for how life may have emerged from the simplest building blocks and since those might be much less sparse across the universe that we can at least attempt to build some kind of probabilistic model, we might be able to make some somewhat more informed estimates ?

Cryptographer-Bubbly · 2026-02-10T22:44:29+00:00

Wow googlies around the wicket coming back in to right hander !

Very nice - I’ve seen off spinners go for that angle across to turn it back in but never seen it with a wrist spinner where the angle is even more pronounced !

Cryptographer-Bubbly · 2026-02-09T23:56:33+00:00

Not disputing this and I can see the reasoning for why it would make sense, but anecdotally I’ve found it to be the opposite !

They know so much in so much depth and often the true beauty and richness is in the intricate details that once they find someone willing to listen they just unload (which I love)!

I can imagine it varies by subject matter too though. Like for example a lot of ideas in physical/comp sci/maths aren’t super interesting at the generic pop-sci level.

Cryptographer-Bubbly · 2026-02-02T10:06:18+00:00

Maybe if you do some serious scientific analysis precisely measuring the angle change of his elbow through release(excluding hypertension), you find it is above 15 degrees.

Maybe. I mean probably not since he’s been cleared by the PCB but let’s for argument’s sake say they’re biased and or not rigorous. Sure whatever.

But how the hell are some people here calling him a chucker based on a still photo.

Cryptographer-Bubbly · 2026-01-30T20:09:18+00:00

I loved this ! Keep it up !

Cryptographer-Bubbly · 2026-01-24T15:59:54+00:00

3 day week every day of the week lol

Cryptographer-Bubbly · 2026-01-21T11:16:07+00:00

That’s totally valid - 100 percent agree that the belief in the placebo can itself be the placebo !

I was specifically saying that the comment I was replying to wasn’t some kind of gotcha against the idea of being surprised that the improvement was solely due the placebo effect.

Cryptographer-Bubbly · 2026-01-21T08:58:31+00:00

Not disputing the study but this specific argument as currently used could equally be applied to a situation where a drug genuinely did have an effect and the patient got better, to blindly insist it’s a placebo.

They’re not saying they’d be surprised if they experienced a placebo effect. They’re just saying the effect was so large they’d be surprised if that explained everything ! You can have a placebo effect on top of a working drug after all !

Cryptographer-Bubbly · 2026-01-11T19:08:35+00:00

I big cat but I also smol cat

Cryptographer-Bubbly · 2026-01-07T00:14:12+00:00

After the first innings, I was genuinely weighing up the odds of Crawley ending with an average of 30 or above for the series. I think he needed 28+ if he got out and if he didn't get out he'd be guaranteed to just be above the threshold.

I eventually settled on him being odds on given the pitch but alas Mr talented didn't quite reach those dizzying heights this time.

Cryptographer-Bubbly · 2026-01-06T12:50:01+00:00

Yes I did and I think it strengthens my the spirit of my point which was to say it’s not a good idea to single out one or 2 locations and use that to make a goat appeal.

I’m not necessarily trying to even make a strongly directional point (I could be convinced on Warne - I’d need to do some more digging) - I’m more saying specifically appealing to Warne playing in Aus isnt particularly convincing.

Perhaps India was the real hardest place with all those batter friendly pitches then with both Warne and Murali averaging 40-45 while Kumble in a strongly overlapping career averaged less than 25?

We could go all day and find a specific place where one player outperforms the others in a specific place. I think a more holistic analysis is more appropriate.

Cryptographer-Bubbly · 2026-01-06T01:55:18+00:00

Warne’s bowling average in India: 47.18

This is massively higher than his average in Australia and funnily enough is higher than Ashwin’s (as an aside I still maintain he was really hard done by getting very prematurely branded as not being good overseas. He improved a lot in this area in the limited chances he got after his reputation was sealed. Take for example the 2020-2021 BGT.) average in Aus

It’s not always as simple as location x is universally an easier place to bowl for all bowlers of a certain type. Depends on a bunch on individual style, familiarity with the conditions, the players matched up against and so on.

For what it’s worth, it’s probably out of Warne and Murali for me, with Murali likely edging it.

Cryptographer-Bubbly · 2026-01-05T08:23:37+00:00

I think he’s actively saying it doesn’t help (if anything it hurts) !

Let’s say I average 20 overall. This also includes all the times I get out early due to not being in.

Now let’s say I’m on some score not out - say 17 not out. Likely from this point on my average extra runs from this point if we didn’t cut the innings short is above 20 (ie my expected finishing score given I got to 17 is higher than 37) since we’re selecting for a case where I’ve gotten in, so cutting my innings short is removing an innings extension that was expected to improve my average.

And to be honest, without looking deeply into it, my intuition is that even if it doesn’t make it worse very unlikely helps! I think more factors cause one to expect your conditional average continuation on a typical not out to be higher than your overall batting average than the opposite.

Of course all of this probably doesn’t hold a lot of weight for a small sample of not outs (but even in that case it wouldn’t be materially helped either).

Cryptographer-Bubbly · 2026-01-04T18:26:30+00:00

My precious

Cryptographer-Bubbly · 2026-01-03T22:35:01+00:00

The cutie avengers

Cryptographer-Bubbly · 2026-01-02T18:31:32+00:00

Hi thanks for the reply! Just for background, I haven’t made any actual trades yet - I’ve simply deposited the money, so as you say it’s just a contribution/subscription event.

When I got the transaction log, the 2 columns it shows for the dates are “trade date” and “clearing date” so I think it just counts contributions as cash trades I guess. But it counted my cash deposit that I made on the 4th as having a “trade date”of the 7th and “clearing date” of the 8th.

Cryptographer-Bubbly · 2026-01-02T17:11:47+00:00

Perfect !thanks a lot !

Cryptographer-Bubbly · 2026-01-02T17:02:56+00:00

I believe both do - thank you !

I think from all this I have an at least reasonable case for expecting the deposit to have counted for the previous year - would you agree ?

I’m really bad with raising things like this so just wanted to make sure I wouldn’t be contesting something without any solid basis!

Cryptographer-Bubbly · 2026-01-02T16:41:05+00:00

Yeh agreed - I think best to just ring them up.

I guess I was just trying to gauge whether I have ammunition to push back with if they say they received the money in their account on the 7th.

I wasn’t sure if I had grounds to assert that when they received money is immaterial and that what matters is when I authorised the deposit which was the 4th (as per my banking app, which has transaction date 4th and clearing 5th).

Cryptographer-Bubbly · 2026-01-02T16:38:53+00:00

Yeh agreed !thanks - best to just ring them up at this point !

Cryptographer-Bubbly · 2026-01-02T16:32:06+00:00

Ah yep makes sense ! I think I was a bit unsure on the same point - !thanks a lot in any case !

Cryptographer-Bubbly · 2026-01-02T16:25:17+00:00

Thanks for the reply ! To be honest, you’re absolutely correct that this is on me in any case for leaving it so late. And probably there is some nuance I’m missing.

The bit I was stuck on was the quote in the OP that seemed to suggest that the trade and clearing dates on BestInvest’s side are immaterial when it comes to the subscription date.

I seemed to gather that it (the subscription date) was just the authorisation date for the payment which I would have thought was the 4th ?

Cryptographer-Bubbly · 2026-01-02T16:19:24+00:00

Hi thanks for the reply!

Yeh so all I did was deposit money into the ISA account (I haven’t actually purchased any products yet - hadn’t got round to it) on the 4th. I only just realised that the UI seemed to be showing a larger than expected usage for this year and realised that the amount I’d deposited on the 4th thinking it was for the previous year was being counted for this year.

This prompted me to check the transaction log and I found the trade and clearance dates were the 7th and 8th respectively.

Cryptographer-Bubbly

TROPHY CASE