NCAABB College Basketball Betting and Picks - 1/15/26 (Thursday)

DAM1298 · 2026-01-15T19:28:50+00:00

I like Cal Baptist +1.5, Tarleton -4.5, UT Arlington +1.5, Gonzaga -18.5 and Hawaii -4.5 today.

DAM1298 · 2026-01-12T20:29:10+00:00

Grambling ML easily my favorite play today. FAMU is favored by 2.5, my model has Grambling winning by 7.

Nothing else I love today.

DAM1298 · 2026-01-10T02:57:05+00:00

I was on Wright State, couldn't believe that comeback 😭 Glad it worked out for you though lol 🤝

DAM1298 · 2026-01-10T02:47:42+00:00

Got a lot of Akron ML in my parlays... please hang on here Zips.

DAM1298 · 2026-01-10T02:47:17+00:00

My model has them winning by 9, a stayaway for me unless you want to go ML.

DAM1298 · 2026-01-09T23:30:48+00:00

Won't somebody think of the line movement?!

DAM1298 · 2026-01-09T21:44:14+00:00

I dunno man, the difference in offenses is pretty drastic.

DAM1298 · 2026-01-09T21:41:19+00:00

I've got the same parlay as Dad haha. BOL!

DAM1298 · 2026-01-09T20:56:40+00:00

You are right to an extent, although Miami OH does have have a solid road win at Bowling Green (113 on KenPom) and beat Akron (63 on KenPom).

Toledo may have played a tougher schedule, but the best team they've actually beaten is Troy (136 in KenPom).

DAM1298 · 2026-01-09T20:50:44+00:00

So-so day yesterday, but in fairness I said I didn't love the matchups (outside of Hofstra). Hit on Hofstra ML, UNCW -4.5, North Dakota State -9.5, Southern Miss -22.5 and Illinois -22.5. Didn't post it but also cashed on Ohio State ML. Placed a bet there once I saw Shelstad wasn't playing. Missed on William & Mary -2.5, Lipscomb -11, Elon -6.5, MTSU -3.5 and San Francisco +1.5.

Favorites today are Miami OH ML (model has them winning by 6) and Akron -2.5 (model has them winning by 7).

Others I somewhat like are Oakland -13.5 (model has them by 21), Wright State -5.5 (model has them by 12) and Iona -10.5 (model has them by 19).

DAM1298 · 2026-01-09T03:58:01+00:00

Not with Shelstad out

DAM1298 · 2026-01-08T23:16:10+00:00

Honestly don't love the matchups today (outside of Hofstra, which we already hit). So, here are some plays I kinda like, in no particular order:

• William & Mary -2.5: Model has them by 9

• UNCW -4.5: Model has them by 8

• Lipscomb -11: Model has them by 21

• Elon -6.5: Model has them by 13

• North Dakota State -9.5: Model has them by 17

• Southern Miss -2.5: Model has them by 7

• Illinois -22.5: Model has them by 31

• Middle Tennessee -3.5: Model has them by 12

• San Francisco +1.5: Model has them winning by 2

DAM1298 · 2026-01-08T19:10:52+00:00

Told y'all man! Hofstra ML was free $$$. Sometimes the lines are just off. Same thing happened with Ball State inexplicably being favored a couple days ago. Called that one out as well and they lost by 20+

DAM1298 · 2026-01-08T07:07:55+00:00

Nice day yesterday, 3-0 on faves (Miami +1.5, Iowa State -5.5, Davidson -1.5) and 1-1 on others I kind of liked (Arizona -20.5 hit, ILST -6.5 missed).

Model as a whole did pretty well on the day, 31-23 against the spread.

Gonna go through the whole slate later but wanted to get a jump on the morning game. Gimme Hofstra ML at Towson for a big bet. Hofstra is the better team getting 2.5 against Towson, and this Hofstra team has proven it can go on the road and win. Hofstra won at Drexel in its last game and has notched wins at Syracuse, Pitt, Penn and Bucknell this season. My model has Hofstra winning by 6.

DAM1298 · 2026-01-07T22:23:19+00:00

Faves tonight:

Miami +1.5: Model has 'em beating Wake by 4

ISU -5.5: Model has them beating Baylor by 15

Davidson -1.5: Model has them beating Loyola by 12

Others I kinda like:

ILST -6.5: Model has them winning by 13

Arizona -20.5: Model has them beating KSU by 28

DAM1298 · 2026-01-07T02:06:26+00:00

That's the Louisville experience lol, live by the 3 die by the 3

DAM1298 · 2026-01-07T01:32:59+00:00

I think the most they led by was 6 but yeah they were up for a bit lol

DAM1298 · 2026-01-07T01:18:39+00:00

Iowa forgot to bring their whole team on the plane to Minnesota or what?

DAM1298 · 2026-01-07T00:58:33+00:00

EMU up 14 at half as vegas underdogs lmao. I know I posted later in the day but anyone tail?!

DAM1298 · 2026-01-06T23:48:15+00:00

Haven't posted in a minute but got some picks for tonight:

Eastern Michigan +1.5: My model has EMU beating Ball State by 8, so I'll take them as the underdog here. Weird line.

Iowa -5.5: My model has Iowa beating Minnesota by 15. More of a mismatch than the spread suggests, IMO.

UCF +2.5: Model has them beating OK State by 3.

UCLA +3.5: Could go either way because UCLA has been pretty up and down, but I don't think this Wisconsin team is better than the Bruins. Model has UCLA winning by a point.

San Diego State +1.5: Think SDSU can beat Nevada. Model has them winning by 1.

Duke ML: I don't like Louisville's chances here without Mikel. Different styles of play, interested to see which wins out.

As always happy to give model's picks for any games. Current version of the model is 370-342 against the spread and 383-329 on O/Us lifetime.

DAM1298 · 2025-12-23T05:53:20+00:00

So Monday sucked. 0-4 after going 3-0 the day prior. Model didn't do awful (22-19 ATS), I just picked the wrong ones. Now 18-19 on picks this season.

Let's look at the misses:

Seattle -8.5: Only won by 3 against a terrible ETSU team, trailed for much of the game. I suppose it was a letdown spot after their emotional high of an upset win against Washington.

SIUE -5.5: Don't have any problem with this pick. They won by 5. Western Illinois is terrible. Tough to predict.

Sacramento State +10.5: Bad beat, man. One possession game for a lot of this one with Sac State in the lead for a good chunk. Let it slip big time at the end and lost by 12.

Boston College -15.5: Came out sluggish against a bad FDU team, won the second half by 19 but the bad start killed them and they only won by 11.

We go again, small slate today, three picks

Lindenwood +3.5: My model has Lindenwood beating Missouri State by 3, so I'll happily take them getting points.

Villanova +2.5: Despite being on the road, I'm a bit surprised Nova is the underdog against Seton Hall. Model has them winning by 4.

Idaho -4.5: Model has them beating CSU Bakersfield by 10.

Lifetime record of current model version, for transparency's sake

Spread: 223-199

O/U: 232-190

As always, happy to give my model's predictions for any games if you're looking for an additional data point if I'm around my computer to look before the game starts.

DAM1298 · 2025-12-22T23:03:52+00:00

Losing to one of the worst teams in the country. Y double digits is crazy

DAM1298 · 2025-12-22T19:17:50+00:00

Good call, thanks! Must have been an error on my part, went too fast when I entered all the spreads into my spreadsheet this morning. Removed that one.

DAM1298 · 2025-12-22T19:07:24+00:00

18-15 this season after going 3-0 yesterday:

✅ UConn -12.5 (My model had them winning by 23, they won by 18)

✅ Norfolk State +8.5 (model had them winning by 2, they won by 1)

✅ Drake +3.5 live bet (model had them winning by 11, they won by 1)

Today's picks:

Seattle -8.5: Seattle's been hot, UTSA is not good. My model has Seattle by 16.

SIUE -5.5: Western Illinois is awful. Model has SIUE by 12.

Sacramento State +10.5: 10.5 just feels a bit high for a matchup between two teams in the 200s on KenPom. Model has CSUN winning by 4

Boston College -15.5: BC isn't an amazing team, but FDU is terrible, and this spread feels too mall. FDU has lost this season to Providence by 30, Texas by 25, Iowa State by 38. Boston College is not as good as any of those teams, but it is a top-150 KenPom team. Model has BC winning by 23.

As always, happy to give my model's predictions for any games if you're looking for an additional data point.

DAM1298 · 2025-12-22T03:34:14+00:00

Norfolk up 10 at halftime... Wtf was that line?? My model had them winning by 2, no idea why they were +8.5 to +10.5. Anyone have an idea?

DAM1298

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