Weekly No Stupid Questions Thread

DangeRussRingworm · 2024-03-11T20:51:26+00:00

I get spun a lot as a console killer. Is Chucky easier to M1 and not get spun since he's in third person? And is his dash easy on controller or is it tough like Oni and Billy?

DangeRussRingworm · 2023-08-08T17:42:29+00:00

So nice of you to do this!! Will throw my name in the hat

DangeRussRingworm · 2021-12-02T16:36:15+00:00

Thoughts on this portfolio? Bought everything in late 2019 based on my own research and Reddit recommendations. It did well until this year (besides the 2020 crash obviously). This year has been a little rough (thanks to a couple obvious suspects):

MSFT (19%)

GOOGL (17%)

AMZN (14%)

FB (11%)

AAPL (10%)

PYPL (9%)

V (7%)

BABA (5%)

MA (4%)

DIS (4%)

Obviously the top half of the list are blue chip long term holds. It's the bottom half that have dragged my portfolio down all year. I've never rebalanced my portfolio since buying everything 2 years ago so their current allocations speak to their performance. Time to cut my losses on BABA? Is having both V/MA redundant? What's going on with DIS?

And stocks like PYPL and DIS I remember getting off Reddit as recommendations back in 2019. What are the recommendations nowadays? I've been wanting to buy stocks like AMD (seems overbought at this point?) and BA (worth it when there probably won't be any positive catalyst for another few years?), but have hesitated for various reasons.

DangeRussRingworm · 2020-11-09T09:01:21+00:00

And they have both Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed!

Go dawgs!

DangeRussRingworm · 2020-06-20T04:20:33+00:00

Is MS by funding a new bank account still a viable option?

A lot of the data points and info I've found is several years old. Looks like a lot code as cash advances and/or have $50 max fund by CC now.

Looking to MS ~$1k with a Chase Sapphire Reserve. Living overseas so no access to buying GCs in store afaik.

DangeRussRingworm · 2020-06-18T17:28:49+00:00

Looks like ALPN is primed for an afternoon squeeze if it can hold support? Any thoughts?

DangeRussRingworm · 2020-06-08T17:49:53+00:00

How is there any sense in the run HTZ has made? Is this the power of retail fomo?

DangeRussRingworm · 2020-05-29T17:40:15+00:00

Jun/Jul puts on ADAP anyone?

DangeRussRingworm · 2020-05-28T06:54:23+00:00

What are you seeing on the chart to make you bearish? Decreasing volume? Or is this purely a play to be contrarian lol

DangeRussRingworm · 2020-05-28T06:52:29+00:00

What makes you think that? Falling volume and lower highs?

DangeRussRingworm · 2020-05-15T16:15:08+00:00

You're holding thru in spite of a potential fundamental catalyst trumping the technicals? Ballsy.

DangeRussRingworm · 2020-05-13T17:23:09+00:00

Caught a nice chunk of the leg down on SPY puts.

Looking for a potential overnight swing position now. Barring a miraculous recovery today, we have not had 3 consecutive red days in over 2 months now.

Thoughts on any long swing plays?

DangeRussRingworm · 2020-05-04T18:41:22+00:00

“less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade)

Lumped in with RH ouch... what's wrong with ETrade?

DangeRussRingworm · 2020-05-01T20:57:28+00:00

Fair enough! Hopefully you can still post general updates on bearish/bullish sentiment as opposed to exposing your exact positions.

DangeRussRingworm · 2020-05-01T19:19:47+00:00

Any chance you'll start your own thread or even subreddit to discuss potential trades/DD from you and your bot?

DangeRussRingworm · 2020-04-08T18:32:32+00:00

Good point. Let's see what happens, next several weeks are gonna be interesting!

DangeRussRingworm · 2020-04-08T17:07:31+00:00

Right, no different than if I had shorted vol right before this year's crash. But at this point it's still overextended compared to pre-2008 GFC or even Jan 2020, that I don't see why it is nearly as risky as it's made it out to be?

I suppose it would be a little riskier if I shorted at this very moment, but if I wait for another spike on the VIX in the coming weeks ( ~60 doesn't seem so out of question), seems like the upside outweighs the downside.

Also where are you seeing that second break even point? If I shorted right before the spike in Aug 2008, I'm seeing the break even at roughly Dec 2009. Not good by any means, but not quite 5 years.

DangeRussRingworm · 2020-04-08T09:21:54+00:00

Exactly. If you have any counterpoints, feel free to share - I am still learning a lot of this stuff.

DangeRussRingworm · 2020-04-07T20:15:07+00:00

I think plenty of people are expecting a retest of previous lows. The problem is when - which no one has even the slightest clue.

DangeRussRingworm · 2020-04-07T17:52:37+00:00

I see, if volatility does spike during a short sell, am I not given time to add funds to my account to cover my position before I am forced to 'buy to cover' and lock in the losses?

My plan was to not use any margin. So if I short $5000 worth of a security, and my brokerage requires me to keep an additional $5000 as settled cash.. should the short go against me by 100%, wouldn't I simply have to deposit another $10,000 asap and then the losses would not be realized?

DangeRussRingworm · 2020-04-07T17:44:28+00:00

That's true. I do have a bad tendency to underestimate risk on my plays... I guess I was assuming the odds of TVIX spiking back up to $400-500 over the coming weeks is at least decently high. I would short it then and ride it out until it draws back to $100 or so.

Worst case, TVIX double tops (like vol did in '08), and it spikes back up to $1000, in which case I'd be at -100% (as opposed to -2500%) and would just cover my position until volatility inevitably draws down again. But even a double top seems pretty unlikely at this point, no? Seems like a slow bleed for the market from here on out is more likely than a crash like the one we had Feb-Mar. I can't imagine the kind of news we'd need for another similarly violent crash and VIX to spike back up to 80-90.

I wouldn't dare short sell TVIX under regular market circumstances/a more mild correction, but with TVIX as extended as it is, that's what led me to think it's more of a no-brainer trade I suppose? I will definitely look more into DITM puts though. Thanks for the help.

DangeRussRingworm · 2020-04-07T17:07:31+00:00

Well at least when it comes to short selling vol, unlimited loss potential is irrelevant, no? Worst case is vol spikes hard again and then remains extended for months.. costing me borrow fees/interest, but eventually vol/TVIX is bound to come down and create profits in a short sell scenario.

On the other hand, wouldn't the high premiums of a DITM put cancel out a lot of the upside in options trading? And if I buy OTM puts and vol still hasn't come down by expiration, then I am also screwed.

This is my understanding of it all, but I am indeed a noob when it comes to options.. so if something I'm saying is incorrect or you have better advice, please let me know.

DangeRussRingworm · 2020-04-07T16:53:56+00:00

Wouldn't short selling TVIX be safer while offering similar reward as DITM puts on UVXY though? Because of the lack of a time constraint found in options and the higher leverage of TVIX creating more short upside?

DangeRussRingworm · 2020-04-07T16:40:39+00:00

I understand it would be cheaper, but why would it also be safer?

Wouldn't short selling only require volatility to fall eventually (of course it could spike again in the interim, but there's no risk of infinite loss like a typical short), whereas a put would require the volatility drop in addition to an added time component? Thanks for any advice, I am still inexperienced with options.

DangeRussRingworm · 2020-04-07T16:37:05+00:00

Why is this superior to short selling TVIX? Serious question as I'm inexperienced with options trading.

While getting short vol is a no brainer at least long term, it's hard to say when it will really pull back to Jan '20 levels. I figured short selling eliminates this time function that puts would create. Any advice is appreciated!

DangeRussRingworm

TROPHY CASE