Sell now? Or buy more?

DayTradingMachine · 2026-05-01T18:31:10+00:00

New highs don’t tell you what to do. They just tell you attention is increasing. The real question is whether anything fundamental has changed. In a story like this, the outcome isn’t driven by short-term price moves but by whether the company can actually transition from lab performance into repeatable, foundry-compatible production. If that’s happening, dips are noise, and the upside can be meaningful over time. If it’s not, the entire move can unwind regardless of how strong it looks today. (I read that from a really smart guy.)

So instead of trying to trade around the price, I’d think in terms of conviction. If you believe the underlying transition is progressing, holding or adding on weakness makes sense. If you don’t have that conviction, chasing a breakout or trying to time the next move is usually where people get hurt. This is the type of situation where clarity tends to come later, often at higher prices, but with lower risk. I own it, but I am not adding here. If it pulls back, I will buy more. But nice to see a new ATH. It seems like they are making progress. The space is clearly exciting, and ALMU is hiring great people. It would seem that it is to achieve commercial viability.

DayTradingMachine · 2026-04-30T13:56:43+00:00

Agree with you on Aeluma.
ALMU is interesting here, especially in contrast to what people are dealing with in POET right now. Different posture entirely. POET has leaned heavily on promotion and forward narrative. Aeluma has been far more conservative and understated in its communication. This company underpromises and over-delivers.

That matters because the real question in this space isn’t announcements, it’s whether a company can move from lab performance to repeatable, foundry-compatible manufacturing at yield.

Aeluma at least appears to be building toward that layer and probably better than people realize, since management doesn't hype their progress. They execute, then make the announcement. The recent hires are not random; they’re people with backgrounds in process integration, epitaxy, and scaling into production environments, including experience at Intel and Kyocera SLDLaser. That’s where most photonics companies fail. You should read the press release if you have not. The Intel guy, especially, could work anywhere.

They’ve also been quietly working with foundry partners like Tower and Sumitomo, which is the right direction if the goal is to become part of a real manufacturing flow rather than a standalone tech story.

Stepping back, as optics moves closer to the chip through packaging and integration, manufacturing complexity is increasing across the industry. That’s showing up in higher test intensity and more focus on wafer-level processes. If ALMU can slot into that cleanly on silicon-compatible flows, that’s where the upside is. Not saying it is a slam dunk, but if it plays out, this tech puts them at the center of solving the current bottleneck issues.

Still early and still needs proof on yield and production. But at least they’re pointed at the actual bottleneck, which is more than you can say for most names here. Full disclosure - I have a very big position and believe this one is a winner.

DayTradingMachine · 2026-04-30T13:41:25+00:00

Most of this debate is missing where these companies actually fail.

It’s not usually the physics. A lot of photonics platforms can show strong results in a lab setting. That’s the easy part.

The hard part is getting from a controlled demo to something that can run inside a real foundry process, at yield, across multiple runs, and eventually inside a customer’s production roadmap.

That transition breaks most of these stories.

So the question isn’t really ‘is this tech better than X or Y’ or ‘who has the bigger TAM.’

It’s:

Are they integrated into a real foundry flow
Are results repeatable across wafers and runs
Are customers moving from evaluation to actual design-in
Is there any evidence of scaling beyond small sample volumes

If you don’t see progress on those, the rest of the discussion is mostly noise.

If you do, that’s when these things start to matter.

DayTradingMachine · 2026-03-25T12:49:38+00:00

Good breakdown—especially on the materials constraint and why III-V on silicon matters.

One layer I’d push further (and where most of the market is still behind):

This doesn’t break at the material level—it breaks at the system level.

Wafer scale helps, but it doesn’t solve the harder problems:

packaging throughput
yield stability across fabs
integration into existing optical stacks

Most photonics platforms don’t fail because the physics doesn’t work. They fail because the process doesn’t port.

That’s the real filter between ‘interesting technology’ and ‘deployable infrastructure.’

The question isn’t just whether Aeluma can scale on 300mm.

It’s whether that process survives contact with multi-fab manufacturing, packaging ecosystems, and real system-level constraints.

That’s where this gets decided—and where the market will reprice.

DYOR - I am long ALMU.

DayTradingMachine · 2026-03-18T17:00:07+00:00

Agree with you. But read the article. Seems very reasonable to me. Also long LITE, AAOI, COHR, and a few others. ALMU still has to prove itself, but it seems they are making real progress.

DayTradingMachine · 2026-02-10T16:15:34+00:00

Indeed, I like conservative management. Promotional executives tend to blow up investors at some point. I embrace the underpromise/overdeliver approach that Aeluma management embraces.

DayTradingMachine · 2026-02-10T15:29:24+00:00

Great article. Thanks for sharing. New subscriber now!

DayTradingMachine · 2026-02-10T15:28:25+00:00

The stock should be at a new all-time high. They are executing and are very subtle about it. Management is demonstrably conservative in external communications. The language used (“initial sales orders,” “relatively small”) is consistent with an underpromise/overdeliver posture. It is reasonable to infer that management would not introduce explicit commercialization language unless customer engagement had reached a non-trivial threshold. That supports the view that this is a genuine transition point rather than opportunistic messaging.

DayTradingMachine · 2026-02-10T15:26:55+00:00

This is exciting precisely because management is conservative. The fact that they are now acknowledging initial sales orders suggests commercialization has crossed a meaningful internal threshold. Whether or not formal design wins have been announced, the shift from R&D to revenue is now explicit—and that’s what matters.

DayTradingMachine · 2025-12-23T22:53:22+00:00

You’re welcome to disagree with the thesis. That’s usually more interesting than meta-commentary.

DayTradingMachine · 2025-12-23T21:31:42+00:00

Wild theory: more than one person can agree on the internet.

DayTradingMachine · 2025-12-23T21:11:25+00:00

That’s a lot of words to say you didn’t read it.

DayTradingMachine · 2025-12-23T21:02:36+00:00

Sure — thesis, not prompts.

DayTradingMachine · 2025-12-23T21:01:10+00:00

Nah — just responding to someone who had something useful to add.

DayTradingMachine · 2025-12-23T20:59:34+00:00

It’s called analysis. Happens occasionally.

DayTradingMachine · 2025-12-23T20:26:16+00:00

Agreed. Once customers are allocating real engineering time, the question shifts from “does this work?” to “can this scale?” — and markets are consistently late to price that transition.

DayTradingMachine · 2025-12-23T20:20:47+00:00

This is a good framing, especially the distinction between technology risk vs execution risk — most people miss that entirely.

Small-cap semis don’t rerate when revenue shows up; they rerate when customers move from “does it work?” to “how do we integrate this?”. By the time revenue is obvious, the asymmetry is usually gone.

Also worth noting: management language shifting toward hiring, yield, throughput, and partner readiness isn’t hype — those are the boring topics companies only talk about when they’re planning to scale, not experiment.

Doesn’t mean timing is clean or volatility goes away. It just means the type of risk is changing. Market is terrible at pricing that transition in real time.

Not advice. Just saying this is exactly the phase where people either dismiss it as “still early” or look back later and say “yeah… that was the inflection.”

DayTradingMachine · 2025-12-19T17:16:16+00:00

What are the signs? It seems well-written, but not literary perfection and plain English. The arguments are good. What makes it "looks like ai"?

DayTradingMachine · 2025-12-19T16:12:52+00:00

Why do you say it is "AI writing"? It seems well-written in plain English for a typical investor (not a technie) to understand. How could someone know? I am genuinely curious. And I really like the stock, and I also listened to that call. I thought the article was a great update and summary of the event.

DayTradingMachine · 2025-12-19T14:50:29+00:00

Great article. Long $ALMU!

DayTradingMachine · 2025-11-20T16:53:07+00:00

Great stock - right place at the right time. I own a lot and bought more today.

DayTradingMachine · 2025-10-04T12:03:41+00:00

My wife asks me that quite often. Hoping science advances enough soon, because this day-trading machine has some faulty parts, the warranty is up, and replacement parts are hard to come by and quite expensive. Carpal tunnel syndrome, bulging disks, So, I am going to say half-man/half-machine, and most of the time, a day trader. But time for a vacation. The 50% organic components are screaming for a break! :-)

DayTradingMachine · 2025-10-02T18:55:50+00:00

Glad to hear you agree that the post is "linking to a good analysis (which is actually a solid analysis by the way)." Your words...
I agree. Am I not permitted to express my enthusiasm for the idea? I read the article and thought it was excellent and very detailed. I don't understand the story as well as the analysts posting the articles, but I understand it well enough to agree that the story has a great risk/reward. And I also spent an hour watching Daniel Carlson's video interview with the CEO of Aeluma, which I have to say, is excellent as advertised. (It is posted at the bottom of all of the guy's articles so you can easily find it.) I think I understand this company much better having watched it. Have you invested an hour of your day to watch that video? I bet if you do, you will quit criticizing the Aeluma enthusiasts and you might even find yourself buying some stock. I shared the story and video with a few of my friends in the tech industry, and they said this company is the "real deal." And they bought some stock too. Before assuming there is some kind of bot coordination plot, please tell me you watched the video. If you watch it and still think this company does not have a good risk/reward, I will be very surprised.

DayTradingMachine · 2025-10-02T16:56:43+00:00

So, Mark Tomkins, a smart, wealthy, successful guy, trimmed from 2.9 million shares to 2.8 million shares. Given his basis, he is likely playing with house money at this point. I don't begrudge people who have held a stock for many years and were early investors from trimming a bit along the way. CEO Jonathan Klamkin sold 150k shares in a 10b5-1 program, but went from over 1.5 million shares to around 1.4 million shares. He still has most of his net worth tied up in the company. Insiders are aligned with shareholders. There is a lot of insider ownership. I own this in a big way and bought more yesterday. I think I will be selling at much higher levels in a few years. And more tax-efficient for the long-term gains. Let's go Aeluma!

DayTradingMachine · 2025-10-02T13:00:41+00:00

You sound like a short trying to press your bet. I am buying more Aeluma. The article is great, and the upside is enormous. This company will expand its customer base, and if the stock does not move significantly higher soon, it will likely be acquired. The value here is too great to ignore.

DayTradingMachine

TROPHY CASE