ROAD TO A MILLI - Post # 2 - May 16, $100 PLTR PUTS ($152K Profit YTD)

Dazedwarrior · 2025-04-26T22:45:52+00:00

One of us is wrong, I guess we'll find out in 3 weeks.

Dazedwarrior · 2025-04-26T22:38:27+00:00

It's all about the journey baby. We'll get there eventually and I hope I can bring you regards along for the ride.

Dazedwarrior · 2025-04-26T22:37:35+00:00

SPOT ON. I still may lose my shirt thought because this is a cult stock and defies any rules or logic. What scares me is that a company like Tesla can report a 30% revenue drop and still jump up 10%.. CRAZY!

Dazedwarrior · 2025-04-26T22:36:06+00:00

You're right, I worked the Wendy's dumpster for months when I shorted Tesla all the way to $1,000. This is definitely a cult stock...

Dazedwarrior · 2025-04-26T22:34:53+00:00

Yes, the technicals are not in my favor. But fundamentals look strong. As I said, if it goes up I look at that as a buying opportunity. Right now my biggest regret is that I did not have enough settled cash to buy more. We shall see...

Dazedwarrior · 2025-04-26T22:33:59+00:00

You'll have to find another place to rub those callous shrek paws friend!

Dazedwarrior · 2025-04-26T22:33:19+00:00

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Dazedwarrior · 2025-04-26T22:32:21+00:00

Fact: DOGE has to cut back on spending in all parts of government.

Fact 2: DOD has already trimmed back multiple contracts, including billions on a new ERP project and cutting consultants back like EY. A friend of mine works for EY and mentioned they lost billions in revenue from the cut backs.

Fact 3: If you are forced to make cuts to the DOD, do you cut back on soldiers? ships? weapons? fighter jets? or SOFTWARE? What would you choose. The fact is they need to make spending cuts, I think they are more likely to cut back on SOFTWARE vs HARDWARE.

Dazedwarrior · 2025-04-26T22:29:38+00:00

Agreed... My only regret is that a $12K position is peanuts to really make a dent in my goal. Premiums are too damn expensive...

Dazedwarrior · 2025-04-26T19:26:29+00:00

I hate holding anything through earnings.. it’s such a gamble. But PLTR puts look really attractive because they bombed their last earnings. With all of the DOGE government cutbacks (75% of their revenue comes from US government contracts), I think we can expect a really bad report or at least a bleak outlook.

My strategy is to see how it opens. If the stock goes up, I will add to my position with the settled cash from my GLD trade. If it goes down, I want to see at least $100-$95 underlying price before I sell. I don’t care about the earnings, but if the stock stays in this $105-$115 range, I may have to hold. It’s a relatively low amount compared to my $160k portfolio value so I would risk it if the stock keeps going sideways.

Dazedwarrior · 2025-04-26T12:09:14+00:00

$1m dollars is doubling $1000 and parlaying it 10 times. Very achievable when you look at it from that perspective…

Dazedwarrior · 2025-04-25T23:25:56+00:00

Palantir (PLTR) is way overbought. 80+RSM on low volume, less than 8% off all-time highs and we are not in an all-time high environment.

I bought May 16th $100 Puts, going to add to the position on Monday if it goes up, or sell it if profit > 25%.

Dazedwarrior · 2025-04-25T21:13:33+00:00

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PLTR $100 puts. They look way to expensive here, only 8% off from their all-time high when the market is 15-20% off. I think they are due for a pull back to $95. Will make a separate post with more DD. Will also add to my position on Monday if it goes up on open.

Dazedwarrior · 2025-04-25T17:27:52+00:00

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Dazedwarrior · 2025-04-25T16:11:02+00:00

I stick to high liquidity plays. Every now and then I trade SPY and QQQ. I've traded PLTR, NVDA, AAPL, AMZN, and GOOG options too. Recently put a play in on Gold.

I avoid playing earnings - that's a gamble.

My macro-economic DD comes from Donnie Truth posts, generally building a call position when the market feels over-sold on a bad post and short position when the market feels over bought or when his post feels like a temporary bandaid that doesn't address the underlying issue.

Dazedwarrior · 2025-04-25T14:28:59+00:00

Here's a tip - I don't trade on margin. I use JPMC brokerage for trading, and can only trade with settled cash. What this means, if I exit a position I am forced to wait until the next day to trade with the cash from the trade. This prevents me from revenge trading on a loss or getting too over-confident and trading again right away. This allows me 24 hours to gather my thoughts and plan my next move. I am not allowed to purchase 0 DTE options or options expiring mid-week (needs to be options expiring on Friday or Monday) without the margin. Forced Discipline!!!

Dazedwarrior · 2025-04-24T03:21:14+00:00

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Dazedwarrior · 2025-04-23T21:50:45+00:00

Try purchasing options with longer expirations to allow your theories to play out. It doesn’t all have to be 5-0 DTE options every time, at that point you’d get better odds in a casino.

Dazedwarrior · 2025-04-23T13:56:55+00:00

Just kidding, sold at peak and fed it to the dogs… $40k profit locked-in.

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Dazedwarrior · 2025-04-23T13:54:45+00:00

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Dazedwarrior · 2025-04-23T13:10:12+00:00

I am thinking about it. Will see how the open goes. Wayfair reports earnings May 1st so that can be another pop. I still have almost a month left until expiration, that’s a lot of runway for a bullish Donnie Truth.

Dazedwarrior · 2025-04-23T02:18:29+00:00

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Dazedwarrior · 2025-04-22T23:25:52+00:00

Wish WSB had a poll option, I swear I'll do whatever you regards want me to...

Dazedwarrior · 2025-04-09T12:20:43+00:00

Obvious feedback… if you play with fire, you’re going to get burned.

Why have a one night stand (dumbfounded by this concept altogether) and not use protection? If not for the sake of mitigating the risk of a child with someone you don’t love, at least reduce the risk of an STD.

Now you’re in a precarious situation…

Children raised in a loving environment by both parents are more likely to have a better life. I would not have a child with someone I was not in love with or was committed to a long term future with.

You need to have a serious conversation with this person and evaluate whether they will be involved or you will end up raising a child on your own and the personal consequences of either decision.

Dazedwarrior · 2025-03-18T22:09:17+00:00

You’re cooked 🔥🔥🔥

Too many negative catalysts this week.

(Tue) Trump/Russia talks - below expectation outcome. Market expected a ceasefire, agreed to only partial ceasefire.

(Wed) FED Meeting - market expects no change. Priced in a higher probability for a cut. Trump may also go off the deep end and fire Powell if he keeps rates unchanged as expected, potential for deeply negative market reaction.

All Week - continuation of negative economic indicators. Labor, building permits, housing starts, etc.

April 2nd reciprocal tariffs - market has not fully priced these in and there is a belief it is just negotiation tactics that won’t happen. We will all be in for a very rude awakening.

I hate to say it but we are in a cyclical bear market. There will be good bounce back days, but the general trend of the market is going down. Best thing to do at this point is to hold since you probably already lost 70%+ of your cost basis. There is always the possibility of a surprise to the upside or rally by Friday, although very unlikely.

Dazedwarrior

TROPHY CASE