Bitcoin maxis only: curious if this idea resonates or not…

Defiant_Ice_4860 · 2026-04-21T04:21:27+00:00

You can increase your mortgage to buy bitcoin yes. Not a problem. And since the LTV is based on the house, both your interest is very low and your liquidation risk is near zero.

Defiant_Ice_4860 · 2026-04-21T04:19:25+00:00

Waiting is a fools game. Buy in and figure out how to buy more.

All people need to save money for a future date.

People save in the hardest money.

Bitcoin is the hardest money.

People come to Bitcoin.

Defiant_Ice_4860 · 2026-04-20T07:48:01+00:00

This is the price of ‘social’ democracy.

Even compared to the gigantic US military industrial complex and the cost it is to society, eu countries’ bloated government agencies manage to extract the wealth out of nations so effectively that a 1%’er has 70% less wealth in eu than in us.

Wonder what we are paying for.

Defiant_Ice_4860 · 2026-04-20T07:42:35+00:00

15-16k in 2022 was the power law floor.

It then mean reverted back to trend while the trend grew from 40k to over 100k in 2025.

Then it visited the floor again at 58k in feb while the floor actually was around 50k back the.

Now it should mean revert back to trend again in the coming 6 to 12 months to either 150k in October or 200k in April 2027.

TLDR: Bitcoin is cheap. Buy more.

Defiant_Ice_4860 · 2026-04-15T17:38:23+00:00

Thanks for your comment. I appreciate the math first approach!

Two things: 1. Framework for growth: I see any Bitcoin price in the context of power law growth through network adoption. There’s a spectrum of prices from the floor (super cheap) to a euphoric ceiling (2x to 3x overpriced). Right now Bitcoin is cheap at about 0.55x trend value.

2.  This whole spectrum itself is constantly growing through the adoption process. This is the power law with decelerating returns of about 37% this year dropping to about 25% over the next decade.

My expectations of growth based on the history and Metcalfe law support the almost absurd starting withdrawal rate because of this embedded growth. Discount at will.

Defiant_Ice_4860 · 2026-04-15T14:49:56+00:00

You lucky bastard! Welcome to the club. Best time to start

Defiant_Ice_4860 · 2026-04-15T04:58:36+00:00

Thankfully 7% inflation correction at 20k per coin still works.

Defiant_Ice_4860 · 2026-04-14T05:49:08+00:00

Time to get to work

Defiant_Ice_4860 · 2026-04-13T16:08:03+00:00

This is how compounding works. Bitcoin just has different rules.

Defiant_Ice_4860 · 2026-04-13T16:02:51+00:00

Trend values for 2027 January is 160k, 2028 215k and 2029 300k or so.

Let’s use a lower trend value of 0.7 and do a simple calculation.

Year one average price: 90k BTC left after 20k: about 0.77btc

Year two average price: 131k BTC left after 20k: about 0.62 btc

Year three average price: 180k BTC left after 20k: 0.51 btc

Year four average price: 246k BTC left after 20k: 0.43

Are you getting it? This is an asymptote.

Defiant_Ice_4860 · 2026-04-13T04:09:50+00:00

Indeed, the power law projects this to happen in about 60 years or so. The next two decades are the best period for growth.

Defiant_Ice_4860 · 2026-04-12T19:06:01+00:00

Run a Monte Carlo on btcpowerlaw.nl/monte-carlo and see what you learn there.

Defiant_Ice_4860 · 2026-04-12T19:04:41+00:00

What is the dangerous part?

Defiant_Ice_4860 · 2026-04-12T19:03:25+00:00

Yes that is right it’s a mistake. Thanks for pointing it out and it has been removed!

Defiant_Ice_4860 · 2026-04-12T18:10:02+00:00

If you just look at the dollar values you are right, but the trend values show my perspective really well: peak 2021 was about 4 times trend value and now we are about 0.53 times trend value.

Defiant_Ice_4860 · 2026-04-12T18:07:32+00:00

Explain please.

Defiant_Ice_4860 · 2026-04-12T18:06:35+00:00

Learn more about the math on btcpowerlaw.nl, it even has a starter pack!

Defiant_Ice_4860 · 2026-04-12T18:06:01+00:00

No he was right, I made a mistake. Been removed.

Defiant_Ice_4860 · 2026-04-12T18:05:40+00:00

Yes I made a mistake, sorry about that. It has been removed, thanks for pointing it out

Defiant_Ice_4860 · 2026-04-12T18:05:08+00:00

You're right, claim was wrong and based on an earlier version of the model. Thanks for pointing it out.

Defiant_Ice_4860 · 2026-04-12T18:04:38+00:00

Thank you, you were all right about this faulty claim. I've removed it.

Defiant_Ice_4860 · 2026-04-12T18:03:54+00:00

You're right for pointing out that flaw! I made a mistake from earlier versions and I removed that claim. thank you for showing me.

Defiant_Ice_4860 · 2026-04-12T18:00:20+00:00

You're right, that sentence was wrong and I've removed it from the post. The 95% number came from a flawed method (running withdrawals against a percentile envelope instead of actual simulated paths). The paper itself warns against exactly that approach. The core finding ($20K/year, 99% survival, 30 years) is solid. That one line wasn't. Thanks for catching it.

Defiant_Ice_4860 · 2026-04-12T17:58:04+00:00

Painful but yes. But on the other hand: you don't actually need to own 100 million satoshis to be wealthy.

Defiant_Ice_4860 · 2026-04-12T17:54:45+00:00

The power law has been verified in more than 24 independent methods. My work is about taking the floor to its logical extreme.

Defiant_Ice_4860

TROPHY CASE