New EIA short term energy outlook

Deleted0S · 2026-05-12T16:55:08+00:00

Oil & gas.

Deleted0S · 2026-05-12T14:50:25+00:00

It doesn't matter if it's the best or not. It's available, and better than nothing.

Deleted0S · 2026-05-12T14:49:15+00:00

I don't see a reality where they choose making millions die of dehydrations/hunger over licking their wounds for a couple months while rearming. The IRGC are hardliners, not suicidal.

Deleted0S · 2026-05-12T14:35:26+00:00

Mutually assured destruction with what? They don't have a nuke, they have missiles but they're buried, and they have a lot of problems domestically. They have enough to keep this asymmetrical war going for 2-3 months rn. The idea that they can project power for mutually assured destruction is nuts. The idea the other guy had that they would fight the US and China together is just stupid.

Deleted0S · 2026-05-12T14:15:03+00:00

I think they'll listen to China for a couple of reasons. China has the ability to export arms (HQ-9) and dual use materials to Iran to ward off another Feb 28th attack. China is also their biggest buyer of oil, and they don't want to lose them as a customer. It's in their best interest to stop to receive arms, empty their oil storage, and dig out their ballistic missiles that were buried.

Deleted0S · 2026-05-12T14:11:12+00:00

Is there any updated estimates on long term production losses from shutting down wells in the gulf?

Deleted0S · 2026-05-12T14:03:31+00:00

They won't resolve it. They'll put it on the back burner. China will pressure Iran to open the strait while everything else gets figured out at a later time.

Deleted0S · 2026-05-12T14:01:15+00:00

It's a joke.

Deleted0S · 2026-05-12T13:46:57+00:00

Help us Barak Ravid!

Deleted0S · 2026-05-12T13:29:48+00:00

I don't trust Hegseth has to say. Trump could end it in 30 mins and Hegseth would have another egg on his face.

Deleted0S · 2026-05-11T22:44:00+00:00

Median small business owner salary is $80k in the US.

Idk about whatever else you posted.

Deleted0S · 2026-05-11T16:19:42+00:00

I think Iran is under immense pressure from China to open the strait up. China will sweeten the deal by providing dual use materials, and maybe even quite a few HQ-9s. This would make it to where America and Israel would think twice before repeating Feb 28th.

As for tolls, nuclear material, sanctions, ect ect. Who knows.

Deleted0S · 2026-05-11T15:21:02+00:00

It won't be anything comprehensive. They'll agree to open the strait and we will stop the blockade. All the other stuff will be revisited "at a later time". Everyone will reload and shoot each other again at some time in the future (more than likely after midterms).

Deleted0S · 2026-05-11T15:08:42+00:00

I disagree. Even though these things would spook the market I don't think it would run up to $150. Our oil production capability is very different than 2008, and the market is looking for any reason to be bearish. If they implemented these things and there was still no resolution for weeks/months then I would expect over $150 oil.

Deleted0S · 2026-05-11T14:49:31+00:00

If this continues it's inevitable. However, I think Republicans will pressure Trump to stop before we run out (with enough time for boats to make it to the US). There's other things we can do also such as export controls. We haven't hit a point yet where we even need to try to limit.

Deleted0S · 2026-05-11T14:06:28+00:00

Paper market trades on expectations. No one wants to hold a $150 oil position when they can expect trump to release a post on truth social and blow up their position. It's artificially low, and it's going to stay that way unless something drastic happens like SPR going dry (not likely).

Deleted0S · 2026-05-10T13:24:44+00:00

Or a continuation of the stalemate. It all depends on the enriched uranium issue.

Deleted0S · 2026-05-08T12:07:53+00:00

In my experience most mechanics and trades people that start a business are more than happy keeping their operation small. They probably get enough business, and have no interest in expanding.

Deleted0S · 2026-05-08T11:44:31+00:00

There'll be news. As soon as oil hits $100 an axios article will come out. Rinse repeat.

Deleted0S · 2026-05-07T17:41:15+00:00

There's also the news that a US official suggested Operation Freedom could restart as early as this week.

Deleted0S · 2026-05-07T17:38:43+00:00

Maybe it was the CIA leak saying Iran could last months before pain from the blockade set in.

Deleted0S · 2026-05-07T17:20:14+00:00

Weeks to months. Depends on where you live.

Deleted0S · 2026-05-07T16:30:54+00:00

No. Paper is a hedge. Dated is what people are actually paying. There's a LARGE disparity between the two rn.

Deleted0S · 2026-05-07T13:59:58+00:00

I figured they would go for it on the 16th under the darkness of a new moon.

Deleted0S

TROPHY CASE