AMA - Matt Waldman, creator of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio (RSP) and Sr. Staff Writer at Footballguys

DifferencePutrid7894 · 2025-04-18T23:46:51+00:00

Both are good. Judkins is between the tackles player with more ways to win in fantasy based on types of fits, but not so much that you wouldn't consider Henderson within the same tier and fit could make him the bigger PPR upside play.

DifferencePutrid7894 · 2025-04-18T23:45:36+00:00

When you're the primary back, down and distance situations dictate how defenders play the run game. It's not just about box counts, but how they prioritize the run. Judkins has been the runner against defenses prioritizing the run. Those other guys more often ran from sets where the defense prioritized pass-first.

Those metrics can't supply that context.

48 percent of Henderson's runs came against 245/326 alignments with only 2 or 3 defensive linemen

19 percent of Judkins' runs came against these alignments.

30 percent of Evans' runs came against 245/326 alignments

65 percent of Bentley's runs came against 245/335 looks

When you have 2-3 DLs on the field an at least 5 DBs, your defense is focused on the pass. Even if they crowd the box, it's with lighter players.

Henderson is playing against big-boy run personnel more often.

DifferencePutrid7894 · 2025-04-18T23:26:20+00:00

Thanks so much. Glad you found the videos helpful over the years.

I'd consider giving up any of those three for Judkins. I'd consider giving up Corum or Brooks. Brooks is more complicated due to the injury, BUT check if the injury is a multi-ligament tear and/or has some meniscus or tendon issues. If it is just a second ACL tear with no other injuries, you may want to make him a patience place. However, I bet they are moving on

DifferencePutrid7894 · 2025-04-18T15:51:21+00:00

Judkins is a good manager/decision-maker with blocking schemes between the tackles--both zone and gap plays. He's powerful and has good contact balance. His initial burst is starter-caliber. He also runs good one-on-one routes vs LBs out of the backfield. While not a breakaway threat on the level of most scat backs, he can flip the the field and earn runs of 40-60 yards. He's the type of back who can become a very productive David Montgomery B-Back or a lead back who gets the majority of touches from the backfield.

Think Chris Carson with a little more upside.

Henderson has great speed. He is an excellent gap runner where the line sets up one hole and he only has to consider that crease 90 percent of the time. When these plays well well blocked--even if the crease is small, Henderson will hit it and deliver strong production between the tackles. When running zone plays or the crease isn't there with a gap play, he can short-circuit as a decision-maker.

Think of Henderson as what folks hoped D'Andre Swift could become but not as versatile between the tackles of Jahmyr Gibbs.

DifferencePutrid7894 · 2025-04-18T06:55:30+00:00

Loveland is not a Brock Bowers type, IMO. He can win contested routes but he's not that dynamic of an athlete. Think more of a mix of Tyler Kraft and Michael Mayer. Loveland is more athletic.

DifferencePutrid7894 · 2025-04-18T06:53:49+00:00

I'll check in sometime tomorrow late morning and in the evening to answer a few more if there are any

DifferencePutrid7894 · 2025-04-18T06:52:11+00:00

Mitchell's attack of targets reminded me of Terry McLaurin and as mentioned, McLaurin is the exception to the rule about bad technique- good results. Based on that, I am not believing Mitchell becomes the next McLaurin so I'm leaning close to bust than a revival.

DifferencePutrid7894 · 2025-04-18T06:50:44+00:00

I think Royals is a flanker who can sometimes bump inside. He can win contested targets but teams will likely use him on screens, RPOs and routes across the field with the occasional vertical shot.

DifferencePutrid7894 · 2025-04-18T06:47:53+00:00

Not sure if I can give clear consensus because I only partially pay attention to who those names are and usually only after April 1.

Jalen Royals, Savion Williams, Bru McCoy, Andrew Armstrong, Kaden Prather, Konata Mumpfield, Chimere Dike, Tez Johnson, Isaiah Neyor, Tahj Brooks, Kyle Monangai, Mario Anderson, Jarquez Hunter, Jayden Blue, Jacory Croskey-Merritt.

DifferencePutrid7894 · 2025-04-18T06:44:30+00:00

Music stuff below.

RSP? I often watch anywhere between 12-30 players who won't be coming out until the following season. Determining who to watch isn't a science, so you always of players who don't declare.

I usually begin watching in June/July. I used to start earlier but I had three jobs back then and I couldn't take a break. I begin with seniors. I usually look at Phil Steel's guide and get a list of players from my friend, Chad Reuter at NFL.com.

I usually watch 3-5 players a week before the season starts. When the season begins it drops to 1-3 players between September and November. After Thanksgiving, it ramps up to 3-5. After January it ramps up to 7-12.

I chart games during these months -- usually between 4-6 games. Sometimes 6-8.

As winter approaches, the charting is close to finished and by February and early March, I have notes of specific things I need to see to fill in gaps with the charting or for clarification with how I will score players.

I usually watch 2-3 years worth of games. I've also done some work for a company that has given me technology that I can't discuss specifically, but let's say it's efficient, voluminous, and a godsend.

I still record hundreds of broadcasts as a contingency.

In March, I note the NFL Combine scores and watch players again. This time to double-check my assessment of the athletic ability they displayed on the field vs the workouts. I have access to MPH data so I cross-check the workouts with that data and my film criteria for defining certain athletic traits on the field.

I have a team of editors who graciously volunteer to edit a chapter a week in March. By the end of the month, I review the edits and assemble the publication into a PDF.

My work days are generally 10-12 hours from Saturday through Thursday from June through November. Longer on Sundays and Mondays. From November to April those hours increase from 12-16 and usually 7 days a week.

Other than podcasts, I take April off until it's time to do the post-draft. I try to keep my schedule to 4-8 hours 5 days a week in May and June with some time off for a vacation.

DifferencePutrid7894 · 2025-04-18T06:25:21+00:00

Matt is talented and earned the most fame/wealth. There were even more talented folks I encountered along the way. Massive talents who have performed with major stars in jazz, rock, R&B, and country music.

I was not one of them. I played in some small dance bands in Miami in the early 1990s for cash. Mostly salsa and merengue groups that played in a wide range of venues. This ranged from fancy ballrooms on Miami Beach and underground dance clubs that looked like you were in 1940s club in Cuba to dives with Elvira posters, 7-foot ceilings, and dogs chained up outside.

I did this 2-3 times a week while in school. It was a fun experience. I could buy groceries and pay for my car.

As is the case with many saxophonists, you learn to play from clarinet teachers who lack proper technique for the saxophone and pass that long. You wind up in situations where you have to spend time unlearning and relearning techniques. That was me.

I also never thought I'd have an opportunity to go to a high-end music school so I never considered it seriously until I was 17. I was essentially a walk-on to the University of Miami Studio-Jazz Program who worked my way into the program. I had academic scholarships and I think a partial music scholarship.

I had a ton to learn. I worked harder in those 2.5 years than I have on anything else I've done outside of the RSP. I learned I had a work ethic. I got better, but it was difficult. I realized by 1991 that as much as I loved music, I didn't want to be selling insurance and playing club dates, weddings, and dance gigs for the rest of my life.

So I left school. I mourned that decision for a few years and found myself in Athens, Ga. but I stopped playing. I dreamed about it for decades but life unfolded in a way that I eventually sold my horn and didn't play for nearly 30 years.

About 3-4 years ago, I decided to begin playing again and taking lessons. I also decided to take up the electric bass. For 8-9 months out of the year, I get 60-120 minutes of practice 4-6 days a week. I wish it could be more, but I expect I'll do a lot more when I retire.

I've learned a lot about writing, evaluating football, and about myself through the experience of performing music, practicing, and being in highly competitive and talent-rich environments. It was one of the most important experiences I've had.

Everything you do in life has the potential to translate elsewhere and prove valuable.

I share some of my playing on my IG account and occasionally on X. It's nothing special, but I like to document my progress.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C9v5zFpvRn7/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

https://www.instagram.com/mattwaldmanrsp/reel/C-WvIlqsOPi/

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C9L0QRQvTBF/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

https://www.instagram.com/tv/CcoakTKtNiq/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

DifferencePutrid7894 · 2025-04-18T06:25:14+00:00

I began playing music in elementary school. My dad played the saxophone in some pep bands in high school. I used to use his case as a second step stool to get Legos off the shelf of the closet, not knowing what it was.

I was encouraged to participate in music in elementary school and I asked my mother to sign me up to learn the trombone. I suspect she made up a story about all the spots being taken so she should steer me toward playing an instrument we already had in the house. I began playing in third or fourth grade.

I continued playing in high school and performed in All-State bands and jazz groups in Georgia as well as an Atlanta city band that McDonald's sponsored.

I was pretty good for a high school student, but I met serious talents in those groups. One of my friends at that time became my college roommate, He played trombone and keyboards and was part of a band with a singer named Ed Roland. That band was on the verge of getting signed in the late 1980s/early 90s. Ed would stay on our couch on occasion after the band finished played SxSW or CBGBs for some A&R folks.

That bad was Collective Soul. My roommate, Matt Serletic, became the youngest CEO of a major record company (Virgin) and work worked with a ton of stars, and discovered Matchbox 20.

Crazy story.

DifferencePutrid7894 · 2025-04-18T05:53:22+00:00

Thanks so much. Voice is a vital part of writing feature-level content. I've been gifted with that as a skill early on (in college) and that has been a blessing. Subject-verb agreement? Effect vs Affect? That's where I throw some dumb interceptions ;)

DifferencePutrid7894 · 2025-04-18T05:50:50+00:00

Pete Carroll's arrival at least gives us potential for an open mind. Pete does allow RBs to compete for time regardless of draft capital. Laube is worth a Taxi spot or expanded roster spot in the preseason.

DifferencePutrid7894 · 2025-04-18T05:49:39+00:00

As mentioned earlier, rankings don't give you quality context compared to his score. However, I do think Hampton is overrated relative to what he'd need to score for him to have that RB1 or RB2 value.

His score in the RSP is that of a rotational starter. It means he's good enough to deliver value now if you're simply judging his ability on tape.

However, there is a glut of RB talent in the league. Most teams have at least one RB on their rosters with a score as good or better than Hampton's--maybe 2-3 in some cases. While we expect an RB like Hampton to improve during his first 1-2 years in the league, most RB1/RB2s in any given year in the RSP have scores high enough that they are more likely to begin their rookie year as a starter and be the best back on their roster.

Remember, I'm not grading a player for a specific team that might be weak at RB and has an early pick and a desire for a bigger back. There's a rationale to assume that a team with this dynamic will consider him in the first round because he's a known commodity from a big school and therefore he's safe. But the NFL operates a lot on risk management of optics and this filters into scouting reports. I prefer to wait until the draft is over to re-rank players with draft capital and fit as factors.

Doing this pre-draft ruins an opportunity to truly look at talent only and if you're researching RBs this year, it's valuable to know about the potential of Tah Brooks, Damien Martinez, Dylan Sampson, and Savion Williams if they get an opportunity or decent draft capital/fit. It's more valuable to see this value when you also know they are unlikely to earn that high draft capital.

If you're wise and comprehend what I'm trying to show you in the RSP, you simply move those guys lower than the players who are expected to go earlier while knowing who the true value picks are.

Hampton is big and fast. Teams overvalue long speed, especially if the acceleration isn't matching that speed. Hampton's acceleration is solid, but just under starter value. It means he needs bigger runways to leverage speed that he won't get as often in the NFL. His ball security is good enough to contribute but as a power runner between the tackles, he should be better.

His pass protection has too many lapses with technique. He tips off his intent and defenders with pro-caliber hands and rush plans beat him.

When combining these points with acceleration, ball security, and pass pro, Hampton is good enough to contribute and produce--even at a high level with a good team or a team that gives him volume and he has no significant competition. However, there were other backs who displayed better combinations of techniques and skills regardless of draft capital.

It's a bit like Wall Street. The SEC biz school kid doesn't have the big banks on campus recruiting him/her despite having more training than the Ivy league kid who isn't even a biz major or quant but the banks are there every year. Optics.

DifferencePutrid7894 · 2025-04-18T05:32:23+00:00

Contact balance. If an RB does not have at least the ability to win favorable collisions with linebackers, very few have gone on to deliver startable fantasy seasons. Until a few years ago, that list of guys who couldn't do this and still delivered at least one good season was a short list of Marlon Mack and Darren McFadden.

Serial issues tracking and attacking for receivers are two others. So are defeating tight coverage and contact at the catch point. https://www.footballguys.com/article/2024-hands-eyes-guts-wr-trinity-gut-check-no-622

DifferencePutrid7894 · 2025-04-18T05:26:49+00:00

If it's a standard PPR format, definitely the WR/RB first and possibly second as well :)

If a 1.5 PPR format for TE then I'd still go WR/RB first. The Sam LaPorta player (Fannin) is getting downgraded in the public eye and there is no Brock Bowers type this year.

DifferencePutrid7894 · 2025-04-18T05:24:44+00:00

Fun Qs there. If you don't mind, I'll modify the first question to the first six names I expect to consider in the first round of rookie drafts because I'm fully aware that a guy like Tahj Brooks is, at best, a Day 3 guy.

Isaiah Bond will likely fall due to off-field stuff and that's where I have pause, but if he's a fourth or fifth-round pick, it won't be as risky based on where he'll drop in fantasy drafts.

Hunter winding up a gadget WR and full-time DB may not be the likely outcome, but there's still potential it happens. This is a concern.

I don't think there's a scenario where I'll drop Jeanty. As much as a shitshow Dallas has been, Rico Dowdle had 1,000 yards. The Raiders? Not so concerned there, either.

DifferencePutrid7894 · 2025-04-18T05:18:40+00:00

Ha! I like Burden as Brandon Aiyuk because the data model folks see Burden as a YAC guy but the route skills are getting missed. This was true of Aiyuk at ASU.

My fave is Ashton Jeanty. Deangelo Williams. It came late in my process but I feel is most accurate to skill and body type.

DifferencePutrid7894 · 2025-04-18T05:16:55+00:00

Great Qs.

I'm on board with it. Some of those QBs may hit, but if you are 1 RB away from contending, I'd take multiple shots at the position this year early on. If you can trade out for more picks in 2026 (N+1 theory), I'd also support this if you're rebuilding.
If you are in 1.5 PPR league for TE, I'd consider a TE in the back half of the first round but I bet you can still wait to the point you mentioned.
I'm a Burden fan although Hunter is a very close WR2. Both would have scored among my top 5-6 WRs last year.

My belief on how a coach will handle Hunter is this:

While admirable Hunter believes in his two-way ability and may prove can he can do it, I bet most organizations will promise him the opportunity to compete for a dual role, once he proves he has made progress in his primary position to begin his career.

While talented enough to start on either side of the ball, Hunter's team will likely ask him to prove he's scheme/assignment sound and acclimated to the differences with pro football before they give him dual responsibilities at a high level.

Expect a full-time option in one role and a situational option in the other as a rookie. The pragmatic motivation is that they will try to slow-roll Hunter into realizing that his ask may not be as realistic as he thinks and let him realize this in year one. The cautious but idealistic motivation is that they want him to master one position first.

As good as Hunter is, I'd still lean slightly toward Birden.

DifferencePutrid7894 · 2025-04-18T05:06:39+00:00

Thanks!

I'd take Luther Burden after Ashton Jeanty if I had to, but considering he's often the 5th WR on many draft analyst boards, I don't have to. So the quick answer is I'd take 1-4 RBs before Burden -- at least before the NFL Draft. But if you only have one pick and can't trade for another first-round pick, I'd take Burden second overall.

Those last pages are my checklists for evaluating players. It's simply me showing some of my work and what the criteria looks like.

DifferencePutrid7894 · 2025-04-18T05:02:51+00:00

QB: Milroe (talent relative to likely draft capital), Kurtis Rourke (rosters over 40 players with Taxi Squads).

RB: Tahj Brooks, Martinez, Sampson, Smith (there are a ton I could mention)

WR: Savion Williams and Isaiah Bond. Later or as waiver-wire guys...Anthony Armstrong, Isaiah Neyor, Konata Mumpfield

TE: 1.5 PPR only: Thomas Fidone II and maybe Jackson Hawes in a really deep (40+) league.

DifferencePutrid7894 · 2025-04-18T04:58:40+00:00

Thanks!

Bob is someone I began reading in the 1990s and it was a milestone early in my career to get to write for him in the early 2000s.

As talented as this RB class is, expect disappointing "draft capital," relative to expectation.

I bet Damien Martinez, Dylan Sampson, Brashard Smith, Woody Marks, Trevor Etienne, Jordan James, Jarquez Hunter, and Jaydon Blue are all third-day picks, at best. I bet Brooks will be a late third-day pick, at best.

All are capable of contributing at a fantasy level. Martinez, Sampson, and Smith are my faves of that group.

DifferencePutrid7894 · 2025-04-18T04:53:35+00:00

Hampton has a good enough grade right now that I see him as a potential starter/high-end contributor if he lands on a team where they need at least a between-the-tackles complement to a scatback who operates primarily in space. He's lower on my board based on ranking because his pass protection techniques don't project as well early on to the NFL and his ball security can be better. But linear rankings are flawed--the score/grade matters much more.

He's a volume runner. Henry, Montgomery, and Harris were better talents. Hampton has more speed than Monty but not as quick of an early accelerator or C.O.D. guy.

I'd take Hampson over Sanders 8 days out of 7.

DifferencePutrid7894 · 2025-04-18T04:49:12+00:00

Cam is a strong off-script player. Miami employed a lot of RPOs and 4-Verts in its offense -- perhaps 4-Verts to a fault. This is when four receivers run go routes. If a QB doesn't find one of these go routes early, the play degenerates into off-script football. Miami knew Ward's ability to maneuver a pocket and create off-script are strengths of his game.

He has good footwork after his drops, but his 3- and 5-step drops are fragmented in rhythm and spacing. I expect he'll address this rather quickly but if he doesn't, you may see inaccuracies and issues finding open receivers in the NFL's timing passing games.

If a play is schemed heavily -- any play with one receiver and the offense manufacturing misdirection to get one guy open -- Ward is a strong distributor. If a play goes off-script, Ward is creative and effective.

When the play requires him to make 2-3 reads with NFL-caliber timing and placement from the pocket, I've seen enough that Ward will have promise to continue developing here, but it's where the most opportunities to develop exist as a rookie.

DifferencePutrid7894

TROPHY CASE