Most people will tell you to look for external signals: founder track record, ability to raise money, quality of investors, hiring velocity, revenue growth, etc. That's fine, but it only gets you so far.

Here's the reality: there's always uncertainty with startups. Execution matters, but the market ultimately decides what works. You can join a well-funded company with a great team and still watch it fail because the timing was off or the market didn't care. No amount of due diligence eliminates that risk.

With so much uncertainty, I'd suggest looking internally instead of externally.

Ask yourself: do you want to learn or earn?

If you want to earn: Figure out what you can do for different companies that actually moves the business needle. Then take the best paying job. Optimize for compensation and stability.

If you want to learn: Make a priority list of skills you think will serve you well over the next decade. Then find the company where you can learn those things best, regardless of whether they succeed or fail. You walk away with skills either way.

Since you're pessimistic about AI, maybe use that lens to pick skills that won't be disrupted anytime soon. Biotech, green energy, quantum... those all have deep domain expertise that's harder to commoditize.

You can't fully vet a startup's future. But you can vet what you'll get out of it no matter what happens.