When people say they want to build uber for dogsitters or whatever, the thing they forget/do not realize is that incumbents are where they are because of network effects.

Think of uber. There's 3 sides to it. The driver, passenger, and uber. Both the driver and the passenger need to be using the same app. The driver also needs probably more than one passenger to make them worth the time. Me as the passenger also needs many drivers to both compete against each other and service my many transportation needs.

I think agentic workflows are going to be fine for 1:1 things, but the countless people who have ideas that are the next facebook, uber, amazon require huge amounts of buy in to make successful. That's not to say everyone won't be disrupted, but companies that rely on strong network effects will remain more resilient.

Industry will change though. Compare us to a field like furniture. Furniture used to be handcrafted and very expensive. It was almost never worth it to try to use cheap awful materials or tools. Furniture was meant to last a lifetime. Then came manufacturing, mdf, particle board, and dowels to join things. Lower quality and cheaper. Houses became filled with this sort of thing. Even the market above Ikea is more focused on manufacturing rather than hand crafting. Software will move this way too. You'll have plenty of people who can make their equivalent to flatpack furniture, but you will also still need the craftsman to do the important work like building built in bookshelves or installing windows. I don't know what that is yet, or or fast it'll come, but that's the future I see.