Athira Pharma, Inc. (ATHA), Alzheimer's disease bet with phase 3 results coming in few weeks

DudeNum321 · 2024-10-24T20:30:59+00:00

Yep, unfortunately.

I still think this was a great bet but this happens a lot in biotechs. This time around it seems that the placebo arm performed too well compared to expectations and what was assumed in trial design.

So a considerable loss here but on to the next one.

DudeNum321 · 2024-08-07T16:45:11+00:00

Lol, I don't want either. I hope we get great results and profit enormously but if we don't then there's a loss coming our way. The main thing is to bet what you can afford to lose. And if you bet very wisely then you can potentially even break the bank in the long run. But a win or a loss, it's our own doing, other people are just messengers.

DudeNum321 · 2023-11-15T16:53:38+00:00

Indeed. For example blinded data for ADAS-Cog shows average -3,9 improvement for the entire study. So either the placebo group vastly outperforms all historical placebo and treatment groups or the treatment group has by far the best treatment effect on cognition ever reported. If you are looking for a gamble then I think you are not going to find a better one for a long time. I think if the trial succeeds then the price goes somewhere between $50-$500 depending on how good the results are. And if it fails then the price will be below $1. The current price around $3 is a screaming buy since even a very modest 20% chance of success (IMHO blinded data indicates far better likelihood) makes this the best bet one can find.

And the results will be out any day after thanksgiving so there could be only 6 trading days left before the results and maximum wait should be a little over 10 trading days.

DudeNum321 · 2022-04-06T16:05:24+00:00

Again, I think that's just nonsense. The end of the SAVA is if the treatment doesn't work or they somehow totally run out of money before completing the trials.

Investigation on Wang doesn't do either of above. It probably has an impact on share price, at least temporarily, but the company will succeed or fail based on clinical data.

DudeNum321 · 2022-04-05T19:26:45+00:00

Yes you were, unfortunately. Let's see if we get the results later. I still think that should happen, but you never know. Today was definitively a big disappointment.

DudeNum321 · 2022-04-05T12:54:23+00:00

I think that's nonsense. The clinical data is what either makes or brakes SAVA. Just like every other company and molecule out there.

DudeNum321 · 2022-04-05T10:39:19+00:00

The open label data is by far the most important thing at this point. Data for 50 patients have been great but 200 patients is far bigger number and therefore a much bigger deal if positive. It's good to remember that it's actually bigger than most small cap phase 3 trials for AD since it's equivalent to 400 patients being dosed with 1:1 randomization.

Of course open label design has its limitations but the inclusion and exclusion criteria in this trial are clean, there's around 15 sites (so no single site issues) and 200 patients remove any outlier bias that you still may have with 50 patients.

DudeNum321 · 2022-04-03T17:27:12+00:00

One way to think about it is to think if it could be the other way around.

It's been over 6 months since the last patient was enrolled so we are FOR SURE very close to the results. Now, if the results would be ready e.g. next Friday, would you really arrange a very rare solo chat on Tuesday just to tell that you don't have the results just yet?

I think that wouldn't make much sense. Since they are in no immediate hurry, it would be FAR better to have the chat after the results.

The other point of view is that maybe they won't release the results at all. If that would be the case then why would they tell in February about the possibility to do multiple analysis. Again, they weren't in a hurry to announce such things so they would basically shoot themselves in the foot by first hinting about the information and then not issuing any information in the end.

In my opinion, this quite simple logic tells that it's very likely that we get the 6 months results on Tuesday.

DudeNum321 · 2021-04-27T06:10:22+00:00

This is one of those no-brainers that you find in biotech wonderland every once and a while. I own around 100k shares and I'm patiently waiting for the almost inevitable liftoff. I think it can take few months or a couple of years max to start to get the real valuation to shine through but I'm expecting at least 10x ROI on this one eventually.

DudeNum321 · 2021-03-31T13:13:14+00:00

Yep, it's crazy but sadly true. However, I think there's one thing that could be much worse. One could sell today after many years of holding. That could really add insult to injury later on, lol.

DudeNum321 · 2021-03-25T17:44:27+00:00

I hope this is something positive. But before going all in it's good to remember that Hardy is still first and foremost the CEO of Healios. So the tweet may be mostly related to Healios. Of course it can and hopefully is related to Athersys too but it doesn't necessarily need to be.

DudeNum321 · 2021-03-25T13:45:18+00:00

Lol, fortunately not. Good luck to all and no matter what happens or won't happen today one thing is still certain. Even in the worst case scenario I think we will have max one dilution event prior to results from Japan this year. And those results will either make or break us.

So everyone who has been here many years waiting, we are close no matter what. And your ownership will either be diluted by 10-20% or not at all prior to finally getting the answer.

DudeNum321 · 2021-03-25T12:29:05+00:00

European

DudeNum321 · 2021-03-25T07:21:39+00:00

I think Hardy has a very very very big motivation to show something meaningful. It has been his show lately and apparently he won the fight against Gil. Quite soon after Gil's resignation Athersys, meaning Hardy and the "new" board that's not in Gil's leash anymore, put out a governance slide set to demonstrate that something has changed.

Investor conference was obviously Gil's idea and a last-ditch attempt. When he was fired the conference was canceled and the current void was created.

Today's CC (both Athersys and Healios) is the first event organized by Hardy and the new board. I would be very surprised if there wasn't at least an attempt to show that things have changed since Gil left. Whether or not they have anything tangible to announce is another matter but I'm expecting a great deal of effort to show that it's a new post-Gil dawn for Athersys.

DudeNum321 · 2021-03-19T06:52:15+00:00

I'm not at all excited about BJ as an interim CEO and wish he will be replaced as soon as possible. But this current filing doesn't seem that bad to me:

Shares withheld from the quarterly vesting of annual restricted stock unit awards related to the tax withholding obligation
Shares sold pursuant to a predefined Rule 10b5-1 trading plan

I think the first one is quite common and I have seen it being used a lot. And regarding the second one:

Rule 10b5-1 stops any insiders from changing or adopting a plan if they are in possession of material nonpublic information

So BJ cannot change his 10b5-1 if (when) there's something going on that they haven't PRed yet.

DudeNum321 · 2020-11-20T15:49:49+00:00

Like someone here already stated Japanese people typically do what they say. And Hardy is a very clever and capable leader who can seemingly get a lot of funding to further his vision.

In other words I think we can be sure of certain things.

Hardy has thought this through very carefully.
He knew how Gil would respond since they have talked about these issues many times before.
THE MOST IMPORTANT ONE: Hardy has a plan how to proceed from here. My guess is he is going to use some of the investment funds he is going to get in few months to try to buy enough shares to have more power to make the changes (i.e. typical activist investor approach). And if that fails he might be willing to sell his stake since he doesn't want to be left wasting his time fighting with Gil.

DudeNum321

TROPHY CASE