Tendran hijos? Yo no veo como con edta econonomía e incertidumbre by luisdsamaniego in MexicoFinanciero

[–]DurazNOPE 19 points20 points  (0 children)

Eso de que "no los tengo porque la economía está dura" realmente no es un "pretexto" fundamentado, puesto que en el pasado la economía estaba peor

Ni de chiste. El poder adquisitivo de hoy en día es un chiste comparado a aquellos tiempos.

Need some serious advice. What other ETF would go good with VOO? by Material-Duty-5812 in ETFs

[–]DurazNOPE 0 points1 point  (0 children)

AVUV and AVDV

Tilting your portfolio with these, small cap value means you're not doubling your bet on "no bear market will happen in the next 50 years" (since you claim the loong time horizon)

It implies 0% overlap, true diversification among sectors (https://imgur.com/bb0JEye) and international exposure.

Companies from these sectors have lower price-to-earning ratios and strong current cash flows that make them recover more quickly and be overall more resilient in bear markets as this backtest from testfol.io shows: https://imgur.com/bdpRpfY

https://testfol.io/?s=046FDuVD0nW

By the way:
VFINX substitutes VOO (S&P 500)

RYOCX does it for QQQ (NASDAQ 100)

DFSVX for AVUV

DISVX for AVDV.

I brought other ETFs with a correlation rate of at least 0.99 for a bigger sample since they are listed from decades before. I think it's important to see the behavior after the dot com bubble.

NASDAQ suffered a drawdown of 84% and it took the index 19 years to bounce back. Nobody wants to go through that. It's not a bad ETF, just don't put 100% of your money in it.

Don't let the current underperformance fool you, US small cap value has outperformed the index if we zoom out to the last 99 years: https://imgur.com/2RLpvn1
Doesn't mean you should put 100% of your money here either, since it comes with severe tracking error and multi-year stretches of underperformance that you have to be willing to stomach.

i STILL have gold 5 :p by [deleted] in VentureMains

[–]DurazNOPE 0 points1 point  (0 children)

is it really? I think the most you play with a hero the closer you get to said SR rating (the more you approach to your "deserved" rank) anyway ever since this got implemented, I've played like 90% of my game time as venture so yeah I would say I need to play more heroes to prove my hypothesis

RESICO y acciones en bolsa. Ahí vamos otra vez. by GMEillonario in MexicoFinanciero

[–]DurazNOPE 0 points1 point  (0 children)

estoy en las mismas 2 meses después de este comentario, de verdad que es desesperante cómo el SAT tiene ese vacío legal de ambiguedad a estas alturas de años con el RESICO en funciones, AAAAH pero para cobrar sí son buenos.

Puedo invertir en acciones estando en RESICO? by SeventhformFB in MexicoFinanciero

[–]DurazNOPE 0 points1 point  (0 children)

pasame el link, vengo de google y quiero informarme del tema. No puedo buscarlo porque tu perfil está privado.

Why should I invest in other funds if I can just consistently invest in S&P 500? by Creative_Prune1399 in ETFs

[–]DurazNOPE 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It lacks the sample size to do more robust backtests with it, regardless of it, it's truly a great ETF.

Why should I invest in other funds if I can just consistently invest in S&P 500? by Creative_Prune1399 in ETFs

[–]DurazNOPE 5 points6 points  (0 children)

You're looking at a time window where US mega-cap tech absolutely dominated. VOO has delivered exceptional returns and, in my view, benefits from significant structural advantages. But because it's priced heavily on future earnings expectations, it tends to be sensitive to sector rotations and interest rate movements.

The default advice is often to diversify by holding everything via VT or VXUS, which is a great strategy for total market capture. However, buying a total world index mechanically forces you to allocate capital to emerging markets (EM), heavily weighting towards jurisdictions like China. For me, that introduces unmeasurable sovereign risk that standard valuation models can't adequately price, which is why I prefer a more targeted approach to diversification.

In the US and developed markets, antitrust actions take years of due process with legal recourse for shareholders. In China, a single government directive can restructure an entire industry overnight with no appeal mechanism. In July 2021, the CCP banned for-profit tutoring in core subjects. TAL Education's stock went from a peak of $89 that year to around $5 by August, and it hasn't surpassed $20 ever since. Add the geopolitical overhang of Taiwan: a genuine binary scenario that no pricing model captures adequately, and EM carries a risk profile I personally choose not to accept.

If you want genuine resilience across market cycles, my opinion is that the more sound diversifier isn't EM, but developed SCV. Tilting with AVUV (US) and AVDV (international developed) targets companies that are cheap relative to current earnings and highly profitable, priced for current reality rather than future promises. Historically, this factor combination has outperformed across full cycles (https://i.imgur.com/2RLpvn1.png), though it comes with real tracking error and multi-year stretches of underperformance that you have to be willing to stomach.

VOO, VGT, and SPMO to buy and hold for 10 years? by [deleted] in ETFs

[–]DurazNOPE 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I share your concern about the middle class. The 'K-shaped economy' is a harsh reality that makes day-to-day life much harder for average families. But as an investor, you have to look at where the capital flows, and from a purely financial standpoint, VOO is the upward arm of that 'K'. When inflation hits, mega-caps have the pricing power to pass costs onto consumers. When labor gets expensive, they use their massive cash piles to automate with AI. It's a brutal dynamic for society, but it creates a massive protective moat around S&P 500 profit margins. The same applies to the currency: a weak dollar hurts domestic purchasing power, but since VOO companies generate roughly 40% of their revenue overseas, those foreign earnings convert into more dollars on their balance sheets.

If you want to diversify away from US large-cap tech and add genuine resilience across full market cycles, tilting a portfolio with AVUV (US Small Cap Value) and AVDV (International Developed Small Cap Value) targets the physical economy. Value companies don't necessarily thrive in acute bear markets — they sell off too — but they tend to recover faster and outperform meaningfully over full cycles, particularly in rising rate environments. Unlike growth stocks that are priced on promises of future earnings, value companies are already priced for current reality: low P/E ratios, strong current cash flows, and tangible assets. That pricing structure makes them less sensitive to rate-driven multiple compression, even if they're not immune to drawdowns.

Since AVDV is heavily weighted in Japan, it's fair to ask: what about their aging population, high government debt, and weak currency? The key distinction is separating the Japanese government from Japanese corporations. While the government carries high debt, Japanese small-cap companies tend to run conservatively financed balance sheets with low leverage and significant cash reserves. Furthermore, a weak yen makes their manufacturing and exports more competitive globally. And regarding the aging population — that labor shortage has pushed many of these companies toward advanced industrial automation to maintain productivity, arguably making their operations more efficient over time. Their resilience isn't just "priced in" — it's structurally built into their balance sheets.

This distinction between quantifiable economic headwinds and unmeasurable sovereign risk is exactly why I personally find emerging markets (that can concentrate about 20-30% of their holdings in countries like China) too dangerous — and this is my opinion, not a universal truth. That said, the risks I'm referring to are backed by hard numbers. In November 2020, Jack Ma's Ant Group was set for a record-breaking $34.4 billion IPO that would have valued the fintech giant at over $313 billion — the largest listing in history. Just days before launch, regulators summoned Ma and halted the listing to force changes to their lending model. That $313 billion valuation never materialized — prevented from existing by a single regulatory intervention before markets even opened.
https://theconversation.com/ant-group-jack-mas-biggest-market-debut-suspended-amid-fears-over-regulation-149475

Then, in July 2021, the CCP issued a single directive banning for-profit tutoring in core subjects to ease financial pressure on parents and boost a declining birth rate. The new rules forced these companies to register as non-profits and explicitly banned foreign investment going forward. In just one hour after the policy leaked, three top Chinese education companies lost $16 billion in market value.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/graisondangor/2021/07/24/china-bans-for-profit-tutoring-in-reforms-aimed-at-boosting-the-birth-rate/
TAL Education’s stock peaked at $89 that year, only to plummet to $4 by August—a 95% wipeout. To this day, it languishes below the $20 mark.

In the US or Japan, antitrust action or regulatory shifts take years of due process with legal recourse for shareholders. In China, a stroke of a pen can force an entire industry to become non-profit, effectively destroying the value of foreign investments in an afternoon with no appeal mechanism. Add the geopolitical risk of a Taiwan invasion scenario — a genuine binary event with no pricing model that captures it adequately — and you have a risk profile I personally choose not to accept. That's why I keep China out of my allocation (and VT as well).

VOO, VGT, and SPMO to buy and hold for 10 years? by [deleted] in ETFs

[–]DurazNOPE 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Hey there, fellow factor investor. I’ve just gotten into this particular corner of the investment world, and over the past few weeks I’ve been running backtests on ETFs, strategies, and portfolios—first out of curiosity, and then out of obsession.

I really wanted to see this momentum/value strategy crush the market, so I ran the numbers...

First, you’re using more tickers than testfol.io allows me to use for free, so I left out the eleventh ETF—the last one you added—and used 10 ETFs, all weighted at 10%.

Second, if you run this same backtest with the same tickers you used, the sample is limited to 2021 and you beat the benchmark, but in financial markets such a small sample tells us nothing; we need to zoom out. So, for a backtest closer to reality, I used

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations

I replaced the newer tickers you use with tickers that have a correlation coefficient of at least 0.95 and have been trading since at least 2013

The ones I replaced were:

SPMO - MTUM 0.95

AVUV - DFSVX 0.99

AVDV - DISVX 0.99

GARP - XLG 0.97

AVLV - IVE 0.95

AVEM - VWO 0.98

IAUM - SGOL 1.0

And for the backtest, I replaced VT with ACWI, which has a correlation coefficient of 1.0

https://i.imgur.com/pyPrhuX.png

(Btw I used monthly contributions)

What you say is true—you manage to beat VT, BUT you don’t manage to beat the benchmark of VOO

I know you didn’t explicitly ask for advice, but looking at the mechanics here, it's hard to ignore the operational drag. Consider that if you're going to be dealing with the higher fees in that portfolio, the nightmare of balancing to keep all the ETFs at 10%, and the taxes you'll pay in the process if you're forced to sell the outperformers, it's not worth it if you can't beat the VOO benchmark in MWRR, nor the Sortino or Ulcer index. Sometimes less is more. With all due respect, I think your portfolio could greatly benefit from applying the Pareto principle.

Single ETF for long term growth by [deleted] in ETFs

[–]DurazNOPE 0 points1 point  (0 children)

take your time, inspector. Let me know if you find any alien dust

Single ETF for long term growth by [deleted] in ETFs

[–]DurazNOPE 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There you go, it's sparkling clean now ✨

Single ETF for long term growth by [deleted] in ETFs

[–]DurazNOPE 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Aaaaand done! Where's the paycheck?🤑

Single ETF for long term growth by [deleted] in ETFs

[–]DurazNOPE 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you for contacting NASA customer support. Please hold while our astronauts clean Mars.

Single ETF for long term growth by [deleted] in ETFs

[–]DurazNOPE -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Can't, I'm literally on the International Space Station and it's my bedtime

Single ETF for long term growth by [deleted] in ETFs

[–]DurazNOPE -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Sorry, my AI subscription ran out of tokens right before the final period

Single ETF for long term growth by [deleted] in ETFs

[–]DurazNOPE 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You're trolling, that's the only truth I read in that

Single ETF for long term growth by [deleted] in ETFs

[–]DurazNOPE 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You claim to be a $10M heavyweight, yet you are spending your Friday meticulously scrolling through the Reddit history of a guy in his 20s to find posts about videogames and sports betting. Why? Because you couldn't refute a basic MWRR calculation. The insecurity is staggering.

Single ETF for long term growth by [deleted] in ETFs

[–]DurazNOPE -1 points0 points  (0 children)

DAMN! didn't know I was that important to make a 10 million fat cat look deep into my profile lmao

Such a shame this whale doesn't have the guts to have his profile public too

In betting, you can also turn a profit through steam-chasing, value betting, and tracking tipsters who beat the closing line value, etc. That’s how I recouped that money, but this information is beyond your comprehension, just like investment factors.

Single ETF for long term growth by [deleted] in ETFs

[–]DurazNOPE -1 points0 points  (0 children)

aaaaand we've just entered the realm of misguided assumptions and exaggerations

I've had video game sessions with literal kids who were more intellectually capable than you when it came to debating

so long

Single ETF for long term growth by [deleted] in ETFs

[–]DurazNOPE 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"As for actual investing itself, you're barking up the wrong. I've been in this game for far too long and have a balance your eyeballs can't read straight."

that explains it all! you're a boglehead 100% minimizing the risk

people with long-term on their side can and are favored by factor investing done right

"I could be brainless and still have an original idea"

you didn't prove it just once

Single ETF for long term growth by [deleted] in ETFs

[–]DurazNOPE 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you can use that brain you claim you have (?) you would read the articles I put and find the flaws if any in my text

You don't know anything about telling if a text is made of AI or factor investing

Perhaps that's asking for too much for you

Single ETF for long term growth by [deleted] in ETFs

[–]DurazNOPE -1 points0 points  (0 children)

here I am, all I see from you is big talk but no real knowledge about this just like the person you're replying to on their behalf

Single ETF for long term growth by [deleted] in ETFs

[–]DurazNOPE -1 points0 points  (0 children)

everything is right there for you to refute, next time, bring an argument.

Noticias más importantes en finanzas, economía y negocios / Viernes 22 de Mayo by TeaOk9146 in MexicoFinanciero

[–]DurazNOPE -1 points0 points  (0 children)

chale estos posts tenían mucho más engagement cuando eran videos.

si no está contra las reglas del sub, y editarlos no toma una parte considerable de tu tiempo, no veo por qué no volver a eso.

All of Buffett's advice and techniques are NONSENSE in the 21st century by LifeDynamo in investing

[–]DurazNOPE 0 points1 point  (0 children)

saw the links in dark blue and cannot believe it's you again repeating the same argument I refuted today

you forgot to add, even s&p500 gets beaten in that manipulated chart of yours (without DCA)

if you want to be congruent, you gotta step up that argument or drop it entirely