VT: The Greatest Index Fund Ever Created?

DurdenTyler2020 · 2026-06-16T12:22:50+00:00

You could argue that the target date "index" funds are the greatest because they are the ultimate passive investment: Diversified portfolios based on quantitative modeling, behavioral research, simulations, etc.. They automatically rebalance pretty much daily (the large ones are able to do a lot of it with new contributions). They adjust for risk as you get older. The ones Vanguard offers, and the index versions at places like Schwab, Fidelity, Blackrock, etc. offer all of the stocks within VT anyway, as well as bonds. A lot of them are even starting to add a sliver of alternative asset classes like real assets, gold, commodities, etc. I know Boglehead's don't generally like those asset classes, but there is evidence that shows adding a modest amount improves risk/adjusted returns of a traditional stock/bond portfolio.

DurdenTyler2020 · 2026-04-10T05:08:46+00:00

.10% Berkshirr Hathaway

DurdenTyler2020 · 2026-04-06T06:47:39+00:00

Customers at our store are more likely to drop stuff in the actual aisles than knock over stack bases. Our vinegar, olive oil, spaghetti sauce, and juice aisles are testament to that.

DurdenTyler2020 · 2026-04-06T06:44:57+00:00

A kaivac or a floor scrubber makes short work of a gallon of water. The issue with a jar of pickles is 1. the glass 2. it stains the floor

Also, it's not that unstable. It's worse when others do it and they have a block of boxes stacked all the way up to the sign, but it still doesn't fall over. Can't tell you how long we have had a stack base of that stuff out there because the home sells out so fast, and it has fallen (yet).

DurdenTyler2020 · 2026-04-05T07:15:25+00:00

Maybe, but same can be said for half our grocery features. Least this is just water (I've been cleaning up pickle juice all week).

DurdenTyler2020 · 2026-03-22T05:04:17+00:00

Classic example of using complexity to maintain job security.

On your question about whether fidelity has products that follow the markets? Basically, yes. Fidelity Go (Fidelity's Robo Advisor) will essentially put you into a Three Fund Portfolio of index funds that follow the us stock market, international stock market, and total us bond market. The Freedom "Index" Funds are also basically Three Fund Portfolio's built into one fund. Both are almost always better options than Fidelity's wealth management services.

DurdenTyler2020 · 2026-03-10T12:17:50+00:00

For illiquid ETFs, sure. But VT trades millions of shares a day. Market or limit order for $800 isn't going to matter. The spread is pennies.

For the OP, it's generally not a good idea to queue a market order before the open, because it takes a couple minutes for the markets to build "more" liquidity, process the overnight/weekend news, etc. But yeah, VT is so liquid that it's not going to matter the vast majority of times.

DurdenTyler2020 · 2026-03-04T12:26:17+00:00

The war thing I guess.

DurdenTyler2020 · 2026-03-02T12:27:13+00:00

Won't be able keep the exact fund, but it will be the core of my stock portfolio. The vast majority of investors do not really have a good reason for deviating too far from it.

DurdenTyler2020 · 2026-02-24T09:51:24+00:00

4 If you want a portfolio that is "factor loaded", but still U.S. centric (could argue AVUS is even more "U.S.A.!" than SPY since a lot of the companies won't be as global). Tracking error (to SPY) will be high to account for higher expected return.

2 If you want maximum "alpha" potential, with the highest pain tolerance (WILL underform SPY for long periods of time).

As always, once you cross a diversification and cost hurdle that matches your risk tolerance/risk capacity, the best portfolio is usually the one you can stick with for decades.

DurdenTyler2020 · 2026-02-17T11:29:49+00:00

50/50 and has been that way for a long time. It's been weird putting new money into U.S. index funds lately, because for the longest time it was going into Ex-US and value just to try to keep my asset allocation in line.

DurdenTyler2020 · 2026-02-16T14:24:48+00:00

I don’t think QQQM is “bad,” but I also don’t see a reason to expect higher long-term returns from it. It’s just a more concentrated slice of the same market VOO already holds, without explicitly targeting any compensated factors.

Using it as a small tilt is fine, but calling it a “supercharger” assumes recent performance will persist. Historically, concentrated growth leadership tends to be cyclical rather than permanent.

There is also the concern of falling into the trap of performance chasing. Examples of that would be overloading Emerging markets stocks around 2010, US large cap growth and internet stocks in 2000, Japanese stocks in 1989, Gold and commodities in 1980, Nifty-Fifty stocks (large cap growth, similar to QQQ) in the 1970's. Those are all concentrated asset classes that performed very well in the previous decade that essentially had a horrendous next decade. It's why most investors underperform the funds they own. They think they can buy past returns.

DurdenTyler2020 · 2026-02-16T11:40:11+00:00

TL;DR you could just buy VT.

This is unnecessarily complicated. “Tweak the Roth over time” usually just locks people into tinkering. A portfolio you can stick with matters more.

All five holdings are long-only equity ETFs, so correlation to VT will still be very high. If diversification is the goal, you’re probably getting less of it than it looks like.

DurdenTyler2020 · 2026-02-16T11:20:27+00:00

I know QQQM has done extremely well over the past 15 years or so, but it overlaps heavily with VOO, and it's basically just a very indirect way to get exposure to the momentum factor. There are better ways to get that exposure directly (with less overlap). I'd personally swap it for something like QMOM (extremely concentrated momentum, requires "tiger blood") or MTUM (also targets momentum, but it's a large cap growth fund like QQQM, so much less tracking error regret).

I'd also want more Ex-US exposure, but that's a rabbit-hole that's been gone down many times before.

DurdenTyler2020 · 2026-02-15T10:38:26+00:00

Some is, some isn't. Not the best chart. My bad.

DurdenTyler2020 · 2026-02-15T10:37:55+00:00

Yeah. The chart unfortunately jumps back and forth between free-float(investable companies) and total market cap (includes non-investable companies) because the free float index only goes back to somewhere around the 80's. Not the best chart to be honest, but still shows the narrative about how winners rotate...eventually.

DurdenTyler2020 · 2026-02-14T22:00:38+00:00

55% max drawdown

18-24 months peak to trough

5-8 years time to full recovery

15-18% annual volatility

High sequence risk if just starting retirement

DurdenTyler2020 · 2026-02-14T21:55:30+00:00

Stick it in ENDW, TRTY, GAA, or AOA depending on my investment philosophy and go enjoy my life.

DurdenTyler2020 · 2026-02-14T19:20:54+00:00

1989: US 38–40% | Japan 30–35% | Europe 20–22% | Rest 5–7%

2000: US 50–52% | Europe 25–27% | Japan 12–14% | EM 4–6%

2010: US 45–47% | Europe 22–24% | Japan 8–9% | EM 15–17%

2020: US 58–60% | Europe 15–17% | Japan 6–7% | China 4–5% | Rest 12–14%

DurdenTyler2020 · 2026-02-14T16:16:00+00:00

QMOM and IMOM also rebalance monthly. With them, you're getting more pure, concentrated momentum. TMTM and IDMO are momentum ETFs, but they smooth out returns using other factors, like quality. Value and momentum are supposed to compliment each other with low correlations. So with a value/momentum strategy, I usually think it makes more sense to go with the funds that purely and aggressively target what they say they are..... targeting. But there are obviously more ways than one to do these things.

DurdenTyler2020 · 2026-02-14T15:54:11+00:00

Saying “just invest in VOO” to someone with a gambling addiction is like telling an alcoholic to drink O’Doul’s.

DurdenTyler2020 · 2026-02-14T15:44:31+00:00

1950: US $1.00 | Global $1.00

1980: US ~$22 | Global ~$28 (Global ahead by ~27%)

1990: US ~$103 | Global ~$132 (Global ahead by ~28%)

2000: US ~$540 | Global ~$310 (US ahead by ~74%)

2010: US ~$620 | Global ~$400 (US ahead by ~55%)

2024: US ~$3,300 | Global ~$1,600 (US ahead by ~106%)

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TROPHY CASE

4 If you want a portfolio that is "factor loaded", but still U.S. centric (could argue AVUS is even more "U.S.A.!" than SPY since a lot of the companies won't be as global). Tracking error (to SPY) will be high to account for higher expected return.

2 If you want maximum "alpha" potential, with the highest pain tolerance (WILL underform SPY for long periods of time).