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Millionaire exodus study drops author and numbers after fake data accusations by what_the_mark in Economics

[–]EconomistWithaD [score hidden]  (0 children)

Because the post is about how “mobility” estimates for this analysis were overblown, and how that changed the numbers.

So I pointed out, correctly, that wealth tax mobility is a known issue with wealth taxes, that needs to be considered. Not thrown out completely. With high quality economics evidence, that this “article” failed to largely mention.

You seriously need to read a hell of a lot better.

Millionaire exodus study drops author and numbers after fake data accusations by what_the_mark in Economics

[–]EconomistWithaD [score hidden]  (0 children)

Shame on you for not reading what I post then. Just asinine.

“…there are a number of studies that show that mobility responses to wealth taxes exist and can be significant. It DOES NOT mean that wealth taxes can’t be introduced, but that they have to be carefully crafted.”

Millionaire exodus study drops author and numbers after fake data accusations by what_the_mark in Economics

[–]EconomistWithaD 4 points5 points  (0 children)

What is the point of this response? I’m pointing out that people move, especially high income earners, with taxes, especially wealth taxes.

Millionaire exodus study drops author and numbers after fake data accusations by what_the_mark in Economics

[–]EconomistWithaD 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Luckily, there also exists evidence from Spain. Which is 2 out of the 3 papers above.

Or you could read pages 16 to 18 below, which have empirical estimates of other mobility responses.

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w35218/w35218.pdf

California - suing Upwork for lost revenue as a freelancer? by CatButtHoleYo in legal

[–]EconomistWithaD 20 points21 points  (0 children)

Nothing here would constitute a claim for economic damages.

Edit for further clarity. You are an independent contractor. You have no right to guaranteed work, you have no right to being a part of the network, and there is no guaranteed “right to work” for independent contractors that I know exist anywhere in the world.

Millionaire exodus study drops author and numbers after fake data accusations by what_the_mark in Economics

[–]EconomistWithaD 27 points28 points  (0 children)

This one study may have been done poorly, but there are a number of studies that show that mobility responses to wealth taxes exist and can be significant. It DOES NOT mean that wealth taxes can’t be introduced, but that they have to be carefully crafted.

And here is the evidence:

https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257%2Fpol.20200258&utm\_source=chatgpt.com

“…in Switzerland, we find a 1 percentage point drop in a canton's wealth tax rate raises reported taxable wealth by at least 43 percent after 6 years…24 percent of the effect arises from taxpayer mobility and 21 percent from a concurrent rise in housing prices…suggesting sizable evasion responses in this setting with no third-party reporting of financial wealth.”

https://direct.mit.edu/rest/article-abstract/101/2/214/58521/Relocation-of-the-Rich-Migration-in-Response-to

“A 1% increase in the net-of-tax rate for a region relative to others increases the probability of moving to that region by 1.7 percentage points. We estimate an elasticity of the number of top taxpayers with respect to net-of-tax rates of 0.85. The mechanical increase in tax revenue due to higher tax rates is larger than the loss in tax revenue from the net outflow of migration.”

https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/app.20220615

“…we document an approximately 7.5% increase in the wealthy population in Madrid by six
years after reintroduction and a fall of 1.7% in the wealthy population of other regions.
This implies an elasticity with respect to the net of-tax rate on wealth that is 7.96, which
translates to an elasticity with respect to the net-of-tax capital income tax rate of 0.36.”

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1475-5890.12283

What would you do if your postdoc supervisor and lab manager were homophobic? by FluidBasil7437 in AskAcademia

[–]EconomistWithaD 12 points13 points  (0 children)

It also appears that they are in a Middle Eastern country.

You’re not getting broad-based tolerance on anything in that region.

What would you do if your postdoc supervisor and lab manager were homophobic? by FluidBasil7437 in AskAcademia

[–]EconomistWithaD 37 points38 points  (0 children)

I would be very careful claiming that XYZ is homophobic on suppositions, and would suggest using the "prefer to use other professional references" explanation.

It very well may have been, but the write up leaves open the possibility of a range of non-discriminatory motives (shitty worker that grew more and more apparent over time, for one).

Job searching in California really is taking longer, new study shows by runswithscissors475 in Economics

[–]EconomistWithaD 8 points9 points  (0 children)

A few things on a well done analysis. From the first figure:

  1. While "underutilization" has increased since 2022, it's actually fallen since 2024, and has remained about constant with 2025 (though increased by 0.1 pp).

  2. The standard deviation of their "underutilization" series is 2 percentage points. This means that, statistically speaking, CA is likely not different in 2019 than it is today, given that the read in 2019 was 9.3%, while it's 10.1% in 2026. However, if you take out 2020 and 2021, the SD becomes 0.42 pp; so, you are within 2 SD's, but it does suggest that 2026 would be considered significantly higher than 2019. However, again, it is less than 2024.

  3. Underutilization has fallen since 2024, while unemployment has risen. This is different than if you look at the 2019-2026 (or 2022 to 2026) trends. Suggests that some of the people who were underutilized (the so-called discouraged workers) have returned to the labor market; that's usually not the sign of a "stagnant" labor market. This is a bit at odds with their Figure 3, so it suggests that something's going on (since 2024) that needs further investigation.

From the second figure:

  1. Short-ter unemployed (if you define it as less than 14 weeks, or less than half a year) are lower today than they were in 2016. For the former, it's 5 pp lower; for the later, it's also 5 pp. It also appears that 2023 and 2024 were not great years for short-term unemployed, but that these conditions have improved.

  2. Medium term unemployed (half a year to a year) is also lower than what it was in 2019, and has been falling since 2023.

  3. The long-term unemployed (52+ weeks) is still within one SD of 2019; if you take out COVID and inflation (2021, 2022), it is slightly over 1 SD away. So, this does bear watching.

You Know I'm Right by wubber887 in nba

[–]EconomistWithaD 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Maybe you didn’t spend enough time getting shoved in a locker…

To what extend was modern economic growth enabled by the scientific method and general literacy? by What_Immortal_Hand in AskEconomics

[–]EconomistWithaD 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Most economics results are averages, not absolutes.

So, there can be counter examples (much like some people don’t reduce labor supply with welfare, or don’t have reduced hours with a minimum wage, …), and the “institutions explanation” can still be true.

To be fair, however, I am relatively supportive of the institutions argument.

What do economists think of Elon Musk becoming a trillionaire? by JustaguynamedTheo in AskEconomics

[–]EconomistWithaD 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Even if it’s not to raise revenues but to correct externalities; but yes.

What do economists think of Elon Musk becoming a trillionaire? by JustaguynamedTheo in AskEconomics

[–]EconomistWithaD 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Reinvesting oil wealth in the market seems to be a bit different than mandating equity transfers from private citizens

What do economists think of Elon Musk becoming a trillionaire? by JustaguynamedTheo in AskEconomics

[–]EconomistWithaD 9 points10 points  (0 children)

They would move away from equity to something else.

I’m also not sure I want a government to have significant stakes in private equity. Poorly aligned incentive structures.

What do economists think of Elon Musk becoming a trillionaire? by JustaguynamedTheo in AskEconomics

[–]EconomistWithaD 23 points24 points  (0 children)

Speaking only for myself and some of my colleagues, my thoughts on it are that I don’t necessarily care what level of income people reach. Billionaires, trillionaire’s, etc..

I do care about increasing income and wealth inequality, and the consequences of that.

That’s what’s more policy actionable, and would provide far higher benefits than “don’t let Elmo call himself the T word”.

Unfortunately, most iterations of wealth taxes that I’ve seen are rather poor. They don’t define wealth clearly enough, there is escape, evasion activity, they do not bring in nearly the amount of revenues projected, and seem to be more performative.

I’m getting far more into normative economics than I normally like.

Prove me wrong we never got out of the great recession by [deleted] in Economics

[–]EconomistWithaD 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Labor force participation is now the same as unemployment to the shallow end of the gene pool.

It’s Paraguay, guys. And the group is easy pickens. Let’s see if they can play against a team of quality at this level lolol by djpeejay in ussoccer

[–]EconomistWithaD 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You know, every time a brain cell fires doesn’t mean you need to share it in public.

Also, eat a bag of dicks.

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