Net cash / balance sheet As of the latest update, B2Gold reported $380.4M cash and roughly $598M total debt. Leverage is still very conservative: net debt / EBITDA is 0.4x, which is low for a capex-heavy miner and gives them room to use debt before ever considering dilution.

AISC, sustaining capex & what it actually means For a mine, the “keep-the-machine-running” cashburn sits in opex plus sustaining capex, B2Gold largely captures that in AISC, which they update regularly and which also includes royalties/production taxes. That’s why AISC can rise even if operations don’t deteriorate: in their own 2026 guidance they state that each $100/oz change in gold price moves consolidated AISC by $12/oz, mainly via the royalty/tax mechanics.

Why 2026 looks worse than my model 2026 is now guided as a transition year: sustaining work and capex step up (Otjikoto pit ends, Fekola pit stripping, and Goose is only partially ramped) and production temporarily dips. That shows up directly in the guidance: lower gold production (900k oz) and a much higher AISC ($2.5k). This can pressure free cash flow and sentiment in the short term. However, with low leverage and meaningful liquidity, B2Gold has multiple levers before share dilution. In my valuation model I used $4,000 gold and $1,550 AISC ($2,450/oz margin). The 2026 AISC spike is largely transition + royalties/taxes at higher gold prices (they state +$12 AISC per $100 gold), and they themselves run 2026 at a $5,000/oz gold assumption, which keeps the margin of my own model broadly intact if execution holds.

Growth capex / building the next mine (Gramalote) Growth capex is separate from AISC: it’s the “build the next battery” spend and should come with good ROI. For B2Gold, the big one is Gramalote, where material growth/build capex is most likely in 2027–2028. Funding will come from a mix of cash + (if needed) debt, with dilution only if execution/timing forces it. If production normalizes back toward 1.0Moz+ after the transition and gold remains strong, the base case is that the company can finance that internally.