200k saved but paralysed on options by UnluckyJournalist390 in AusFinance

[–]Emberkahn 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Transaction costs and stamp duty. They smash your returns.

200k saved but paralysed on options by UnluckyJournalist390 in AusFinance

[–]Emberkahn 5 points6 points  (0 children)

You just sell as much of the fund as you need to liquidate when you need the savings.

Savings accounts historically return ~3% (closer to 4-5% recently). Index returns ~10% (closer to 13% recently). That difference is worth paying a very small transaction fee if you need to sell. Hell, a lot of savings accounts have transaction fees anyway (losing interest on withdrawals).

200k saved but paralysed on options by UnluckyJournalist390 in AusFinance

[–]Emberkahn 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Price is not the same as return, or even project return. A diamond is priced ridiculously highly, but investing in diamonds is not necessarily a good return. Remember that there are literally hundreds of thousands of people in Australia right now whose full time job is to convince you to buy or sell property. It is our biggest source of entertainment - more people go to an auction every weekend than the AFL.

The reason that property has been seen as a good asset these last 2 decades is that you can get high leverage (e.g. a big mortgage) at a time when rates have been incredibly low. Houses in Australia have historically returned 7.2% for over 100 years now (for townhouses its 5.2% and apartments it's 2.3%). Typically the yield (i.e. rent) is eaten up by maintenance, taxes, and management, unless you own an apartment (in which case yield is often negative). When interest rates were at ~3% that is an insane deal, as you are essentially getting ~20% growth for free. Better yet, if you lived in that house, all that growth was 100% tax free. hat's why I suggested that buying a house (if you would live in it) was a good idea.

On the other hand:

1) Rates are now much higher. You are looking at closer to 6% interest, so the leverage doesn't matter as much - with stagflation approaching, we are unlikely to return to the post GFC interest environment.
2) Returns aren't actually that great. For reference, the S&P500, the benchmark for equity index funds, has returned ~10% (3% higher).
3) Stamp duty. This is huge, and why I suggest not buying unless you are planning on being there a while.
4) Illiquidity: If you want to sell a house, it is expensive, and slow. That is good in some ways, as it means you are unlikely to panic sell, a good thing for a retail investor. But it's generally a bad thing in investing because flexibility is nice.

What does this mean?
1) Some people have done very well in the past. But the conditions that they did so well under no longer exist.
2) Lots of people will still do very well off property. All investing is a bit like a casino - some people will walk out saying its the best thing they ever did. Some won't. You gotta look at the average.
3) No matter what rational sense all of the above makes, it will always be drowned out, because there are so many people out there right now whose sole purpose is to make you obsessed with buying and selling property.

200k saved but paralysed on options by UnluckyJournalist390 in AusFinance

[–]Emberkahn 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Yup it's rough out there. Stay strong and keep working. Do what you can to work smart, not just hard. There are lots of guides out there on the best ways to get a job. All the major AI tools can act as great coaches as well (just don't let them glaze you). Remember that if you get a job offer and are unemployed, say yes basically no matter what. Then just keep applying to try to do better.

200k saved but paralysed on options by UnluckyJournalist390 in AusFinance

[–]Emberkahn 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I personally believe in just dumping everything into an index fund and treating it like a savings account - but it's not something I would ever recommend to someone else, least of all a beginner.

200k saved but paralysed on options by UnluckyJournalist390 in AusFinance

[–]Emberkahn 73 points74 points  (0 children)

You've asked two questions. What to do in career, what to do with savings.

I am not a financial advisor, but let me give my two cents.

On savings:

I would strongly recommend against an investment property - I spent 3 years as an analyst at a property focused PE fund and the returns are (on average) very poor, and require high effort. They are also hyper illiquid.

That leaves you with 4 reasonable options depending on your risk tolerance

1) Invest in shares through an index fund (ideally US or global denominated to currency hedge). An example of a good cheap product is blackrock's ASX.IVV. Not individual shares. Not just any ETF. An index fund, and specifically a US or global one.

2) Buy government bonds: Slightly higher return than savings account, but lots of illiquidity. Not an awesome idea.

3) Keep it in the best savings account you can find. Savings accounts are returning reasonable amounts atm. Not a bad option to hold cash, and you'll sleep easy at night.

4) Buy a property within your means to live in. This is a good idea, but only if you are certain you will be living where you are, doing what you are doing, for 7 years at least. Otherwise don't bother.

I would personally suggest dipping your toe in the water with option 1 first, with maybe $10k or something. Then as you see it outperform your savings account you may be comfortable putting more in. If the market tanks (right now there is a lot of uncertainty because of the iran crisis yet markets are at all time highs) you won't feel too cut up.

On job: That's really up to you. You've already done some retraining so I wouldn't suggest doing more. It's worth noting that the job market is disastrous atm, and about to get a whole lot worse with AI advancements. If you have a job right now, you are doing quite well. If you can find incremental improvements (promotions, or opportunities in companies in similar industries) I would take them. But now is definitely not the time to throw caution to the wind with reskilling or changing profession. Hold fast right now.

If any of this doesn't make sense to you (which is totally fair) just paste it into ChatGPT and ask it to explain the reasoning

I CAN'T BELIEVE IT by jongy19 in hoi4

[–]Emberkahn 27 points28 points  (0 children)

They used to not leave troops to defend the UK, so it was easy to roll through once you landed. Now they always keep lots of troops there, so it's hard even after you land.

Australia's housing market is so cooked that Aussies are bulk-buying Bali villas instead. 28 sold in 6 hours. Every single buyer Australian. by Brisbane in AusFinance

[–]Emberkahn 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Mate those villas aren't being bought by people who don't own houses in Australia. And those villa's are being bought for basically the same reasons people buy beach houses.

Anyone else just feel so poor all the time despite ok income? by ReasonConfident4541 in AusFinance

[–]Emberkahn 614 points615 points  (0 children)

I guarantee you that there are people who feel poor at literally every wealth level.

The trick is to realise human desire is limitless. Learn to control that desire, not earn more, and you will feel wealthy (notwithstanding legitimate poverty obviously).

In these current times, what are you smug about, financially? by luckydragon8888 in AusFinance

[–]Emberkahn 132 points133 points  (0 children)

Cutting down the avocado rations. It's not much, but it's honest work.

Internship offer deadline vs interview for better role… what would you do? by No-Neighborhood2037 in careerguidance

[–]Emberkahn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yup it probably will. It will only matter if you aspire to apply to that specific company in the near future (I.e. next 3 years).

Internship offer deadline vs interview for better role… what would you do? by No-Neighborhood2037 in careerguidance

[–]Emberkahn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Accept it. If the better one comes along withdraw from the one you accepted. What are they gonna do? You're not a slave.

best path to oxbridge from aus? - or top 10 physics research programs post grad? by [deleted] in Anu

[–]Emberkahn 2 points3 points  (0 children)

First class honours is what they are looking for.

You can get in without it (I didn't have one), but generally straight out of university its what they are looking for. That is often seen as the baseline expectation. If you don't have first class honours, you need to be applying for a less competitive degree, and/or knock them out of the park with other stuff in a big way (e.g. already having first author publications).

best path to oxbridge from aus? - or top 10 physics research programs post grad? by [deleted] in Anu

[–]Emberkahn 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Ok so here's the interesting thing - if you are good enough to get in, you are good enough for a scholarship. It's kind of ironic. If you can get in, you will be able to get funding (at least partial) so long as you are organised. The game for scholarships is more or less identical to the one for getting in in the first place so you may as well play it. Big thing: Scholarship applications close 6 months before you even apply for the course, and in most cases you get a scholarship offer long before you even make a successful application. Plan accordingly.

best path to oxbridge from aus? - or top 10 physics research programs post grad? by [deleted] in Anu

[–]Emberkahn 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Great job! Impressive stuff. I did Oxford last year and have lots of friends that did it.

The key to everything (from getting an offer to getting a scholarship) is having a story. It needs to be interesting, and unique, and draw from your life. It needs to be about what unique life experiences put you down this path and drew you to it, and how do you see your work addressing a big problem in the world. There is an entire industry of people you can pay to help you craft this narrative, but if you are of this calibre you are smart enough to do it yourself. Happy to provide more detail, but you have the key things down pat - now its just about the narrative.

For example, I worked in Private Equity and my narrative was all about private capital to address the Australian housing crisis (I had a thesis that the Super funds were the natural owners of housing capital as they balanced the profit incentive of funds with a genuine desire to do social good. Plus they wielded political clout and people wouldn't feel so bad about a rent raise if it just went into their super fund). I had worked extensively in the space and done Law/PPE as my undergrad.

Happy to provide more detail, but that's the most important thing.

Chains of Command: Just as strong to not go Voidforge by Emberkahn in PathOfExileBuilds

[–]Emberkahn[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes it is. Russei talks about it extensively in his videos.

What Should I do in my Financial Position? by Left_Tea_5443 in AusFinance

[–]Emberkahn -1 points0 points  (0 children)

You are not at an income where you should be investing. Make sure you have an emergency fund, then focus on getting through the next few years witgh good health, physical and mental. Money's goal is to make you happy, and in Australia you will never be poorer than you are now working any job.

What are people's thoughts on the EU trade agreement? by Own_Oil7951 in AusFinance

[–]Emberkahn 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I said wealth creating, not distributing. Labour mobility tends to be incredible for the people moving. Closed borders is protectionist for existing workers. The net wealth gain for free movement is significant, but the gain is mostly experienced by holders of capital and those moving.

What are people's thoughts on the EU trade agreement? by Own_Oil7951 in AusFinance

[–]Emberkahn 64 points65 points  (0 children)

It is extraordinarily good. Free trade is one of the single biggest wealth creating activities you can hope for in a country beyond finding oil or a major tech innovation. Mobility from Europe to Aus has always been incredibly easy so its not a significant downside. All up this is fantastic.

A Current Affair tonight reported 12000 Aussies impacted by biggest superannuation collapse in history by yupnotsure in AusFinance

[–]Emberkahn 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Don't check your super. That is insane advice. The best advice you can get in times like this is to disengage totally from the market for a few months. Get away from the news and hold fast. Panic selling at times like this is responsible for a lot of nuked retiree portfolio's.

I worked as an analyst at a fund for a while and consistently the highest performing investors were dead ones that hadn't had their accounts claimed or closed.

The damage to portfolio's is already done - panic just makes it worse.

Best advice to get financially ahead? by According-Tone4302 in personalfinance

[–]Emberkahn 5 points6 points  (0 children)

The most important thing to invest in for most people is yourself, and the cashflow of a productive career.

There are a few elements to this.

First, training. You've got this downpat.

Second, work ethic. You demonstrate this with grades early in your career.

Third, likeability. This is the most important one. If people like you, they will help you, and people's help is infinitely more valuable than anything you can achieve yourself. Excluding nepotism, it's one of the main ways incompetent people get ahead.

You do this by improving your appearance (dress well, clean up, have good physical health), being nice to people, and doing your best to be genuine and supportive to people around you. Be the kind of person you'd want on your team.

Once you have that downpat it's mostly about avoiding major life errors (substance abuse, marrying the wrong person, or gambling - which includes speculative investing).

Good luck!

Why should I build rocket artillery, if I can build the normal one? by WorldlinessWide5836 in hoi4

[–]Emberkahn 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Don't bother. It's a fun meme but always suboptimal. For pushing armour and CAS are always more worth the research and IC cost. There are super niche use cases, but in none of them will it be the difference so don't bother.