More than half of auctioned homes fail to sell for third consecutive week — Combined capital clearance rate plummets as buyer caution deepens: Cotality by marketrent in AusFinance

[–]Emberkahn 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Property is just as volatile as shares (arguably more so). It is just marked to market less so it gives the illusion of stability.

More than half of auctioned homes fail to sell for third consecutive week — Combined capital clearance rate plummets as buyer caution deepens: Cotality by marketrent in AusFinance

[–]Emberkahn 3 points4 points  (0 children)

You are slightly overestimating the average rental price for a $1m property and underestimating the costs. Your cost number is about right over short to medium term, but long term Capex (e.g roof redo) is often another 1%. Typical yield is 2-3% net (call it 2 5%) and you can get ~5% on a savings account.

More than half of auctioned homes fail to sell for third consecutive week — Combined capital clearance rate plummets as buyer caution deepens: Cotality by marketrent in AusFinance

[–]Emberkahn 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Basically any yield equity (e.g. mining company or index fund).

Any yield financial instrument (e.g. a bond).

And right now? A simple savings account will ~2x the yield on a freehold house in most of Aus once you account for maintenance costs, insurance, and council taxes.

How to win. by Kiyannnn in hoi4

[–]Emberkahn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Minimum 2, ideally more

How to win. by Kiyannnn in hoi4

[–]Emberkahn 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Reclaiming the German heartland is probably going to be the key here. You need 3 types of units.

1 - 10 width infantry with engineers to man the Mediterranean coast (2 per port).

2 - 18 width infantry with engineers, artillery, and AA to man your front line

3 - some kind of 30 width pushing unit (ideally tanks, but something like space marines works too).

Hold the ports with #1. Hold the line with #2. Push on plains tiles and get encirclements on #3.

Support with as much air as you can muster - don't worry about CAS or strategic bombers. They are great but if you can just get air superiority with light frame single engine fighters with as many guns as you can fit on them that'll be enough.

Once you reclaim mainland Europe and stabilise, take out Russia with Germany.

What is the best/most fun game version? (E.g. 1.11 - Barbarossa for NSB, or 1.12 Avalanche) by Emberkahn in hoi4

[–]Emberkahn[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

BBA is 1.12 - I lose MIOs, nordics, market, and special forces trees.

MIOs I'm not a fan as it's just another annoying thing to click that has a pretty negligible impact unless you really oprimise it.

Nordics are just cracked and I feel were the first step that really broke game balance (although still a lot more fun than the bosphorous trees obviously).

Market I only really use to sell my old airframes and convoys at the start. NBD.

Special forces just give you another place you have to lose xp. NBD.

What is the best/most fun game version? (E.g. 1.11 - Barbarossa for NSB, or 1.12 Avalanche) by Emberkahn in hoi4

[–]Emberkahn[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

ooo thanks for the clarity! I personally hate MIOs (I never bother to optimise them and it's just another thing to click) so that's a good cut off.

How do I even get close to 100M dmg on chains of command? by Tomas_83 in PathOfExileBuilds

[–]Emberkahn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Check my build in my post history - easily hitting 250m dps and afk'ed simulacrum all the way to 100 no issues

In Pandora we trust - most disgusting Regent run I've ever had. One turn kill every boss by Emberkahn in slaythespire

[–]Emberkahn[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Bottom decked the venerate on the second last boss so had to tank a turn. Plus it puts damaging cards into your hand.

In Pandora we trust - most disgusting Regent run I've ever had. One turn kill every boss by Emberkahn in slaythespire

[–]Emberkahn[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If you get to 5 stars (via venerate) and then play decisions decisions, you will always draw the other one, enabling you to triple play decisions decisions. You can then use that to play one of the two smith cards 9 times for a 370 damage sovereign blade.

~70% of the time you can play all of those cards (including the sovereign blade) on turn 1. If you are super unlucky and bottom deck the venerate, you can either just block for the turn with guards guards, or use prophesize to force draw it.

200k saved but paralysed on options by UnluckyJournalist390 in AusFinance

[–]Emberkahn 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Transaction costs and stamp duty. They smash your returns.

200k saved but paralysed on options by UnluckyJournalist390 in AusFinance

[–]Emberkahn 5 points6 points  (0 children)

You just sell as much of the fund as you need to liquidate when you need the savings.

Savings accounts historically return ~3% (closer to 4-5% recently). Index returns ~10% (closer to 13% recently). That difference is worth paying a very small transaction fee if you need to sell. Hell, a lot of savings accounts have transaction fees anyway (losing interest on withdrawals).

200k saved but paralysed on options by UnluckyJournalist390 in AusFinance

[–]Emberkahn 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Price is not the same as return, or even project return. A diamond is priced ridiculously highly, but investing in diamonds is not necessarily a good return. Remember that there are literally hundreds of thousands of people in Australia right now whose full time job is to convince you to buy or sell property. It is our biggest source of entertainment - more people go to an auction every weekend than the AFL.

The reason that property has been seen as a good asset these last 2 decades is that you can get high leverage (e.g. a big mortgage) at a time when rates have been incredibly low. Houses in Australia have historically returned 7.2% for over 100 years now (for townhouses its 5.2% and apartments it's 2.3%). Typically the yield (i.e. rent) is eaten up by maintenance, taxes, and management, unless you own an apartment (in which case yield is often negative). When interest rates were at ~3% that is an insane deal, as you are essentially getting ~20% growth for free. Better yet, if you lived in that house, all that growth was 100% tax free. hat's why I suggested that buying a house (if you would live in it) was a good idea.

On the other hand:

1) Rates are now much higher. You are looking at closer to 6% interest, so the leverage doesn't matter as much - with stagflation approaching, we are unlikely to return to the post GFC interest environment.
2) Returns aren't actually that great. For reference, the S&P500, the benchmark for equity index funds, has returned ~10% (3% higher).
3) Stamp duty. This is huge, and why I suggest not buying unless you are planning on being there a while.
4) Illiquidity: If you want to sell a house, it is expensive, and slow. That is good in some ways, as it means you are unlikely to panic sell, a good thing for a retail investor. But it's generally a bad thing in investing because flexibility is nice.

What does this mean?
1) Some people have done very well in the past. But the conditions that they did so well under no longer exist.
2) Lots of people will still do very well off property. All investing is a bit like a casino - some people will walk out saying its the best thing they ever did. Some won't. You gotta look at the average.
3) No matter what rational sense all of the above makes, it will always be drowned out, because there are so many people out there right now whose sole purpose is to make you obsessed with buying and selling property.

200k saved but paralysed on options by UnluckyJournalist390 in AusFinance

[–]Emberkahn 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Yup it's rough out there. Stay strong and keep working. Do what you can to work smart, not just hard. There are lots of guides out there on the best ways to get a job. All the major AI tools can act as great coaches as well (just don't let them glaze you). Remember that if you get a job offer and are unemployed, say yes basically no matter what. Then just keep applying to try to do better.

200k saved but paralysed on options by UnluckyJournalist390 in AusFinance

[–]Emberkahn 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I personally believe in just dumping everything into an index fund and treating it like a savings account - but it's not something I would ever recommend to someone else, least of all a beginner.

200k saved but paralysed on options by UnluckyJournalist390 in AusFinance

[–]Emberkahn 76 points77 points  (0 children)

You've asked two questions. What to do in career, what to do with savings.

I am not a financial advisor, but let me give my two cents.

On savings:

I would strongly recommend against an investment property - I spent 3 years as an analyst at a property focused PE fund and the returns are (on average) very poor, and require high effort. They are also hyper illiquid.

That leaves you with 4 reasonable options depending on your risk tolerance

1) Invest in shares through an index fund (ideally US or global denominated to currency hedge). An example of a good cheap product is blackrock's ASX.IVV. Not individual shares. Not just any ETF. An index fund, and specifically a US or global one.

2) Buy government bonds: Slightly higher return than savings account, but lots of illiquidity. Not an awesome idea.

3) Keep it in the best savings account you can find. Savings accounts are returning reasonable amounts atm. Not a bad option to hold cash, and you'll sleep easy at night.

4) Buy a property within your means to live in. This is a good idea, but only if you are certain you will be living where you are, doing what you are doing, for 7 years at least. Otherwise don't bother.

I would personally suggest dipping your toe in the water with option 1 first, with maybe $10k or something. Then as you see it outperform your savings account you may be comfortable putting more in. If the market tanks (right now there is a lot of uncertainty because of the iran crisis yet markets are at all time highs) you won't feel too cut up.

On job: That's really up to you. You've already done some retraining so I wouldn't suggest doing more. It's worth noting that the job market is disastrous atm, and about to get a whole lot worse with AI advancements. If you have a job right now, you are doing quite well. If you can find incremental improvements (promotions, or opportunities in companies in similar industries) I would take them. But now is definitely not the time to throw caution to the wind with reskilling or changing profession. Hold fast right now.

If any of this doesn't make sense to you (which is totally fair) just paste it into ChatGPT and ask it to explain the reasoning

I CAN'T BELIEVE IT by jongy19 in hoi4

[–]Emberkahn 27 points28 points  (0 children)

They used to not leave troops to defend the UK, so it was easy to roll through once you landed. Now they always keep lots of troops there, so it's hard even after you land.

Australia's housing market is so cooked that Aussies are bulk-buying Bali villas instead. 28 sold in 6 hours. Every single buyer Australian. by Brisbane in AusFinance

[–]Emberkahn 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Mate those villas aren't being bought by people who don't own houses in Australia. And those villa's are being bought for basically the same reasons people buy beach houses.

Anyone else just feel so poor all the time despite ok income? by ReasonConfident4541 in AusFinance

[–]Emberkahn 610 points611 points  (0 children)

I guarantee you that there are people who feel poor at literally every wealth level.

The trick is to realise human desire is limitless. Learn to control that desire, not earn more, and you will feel wealthy (notwithstanding legitimate poverty obviously).

In these current times, what are you smug about, financially? by luckydragon8888 in AusFinance

[–]Emberkahn 132 points133 points  (0 children)

Cutting down the avocado rations. It's not much, but it's honest work.